Contrarian Capital

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

$GOOGL fell 7-10% on its first negative free cash flow quarter since IPO. Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath says buy the machine.

Google has compounded capital at roughly 32% ROIC for 25 years, and it just guided capex to $195-205B. The Street read a red flag. Chamath reads a compounder spending into its lead.

The deeper point - frontier models now commoditize within weeks, so value drains from the model layer toward infrastructure. That fragmentation hurts Anthropic and OpenAI and helps Google, which monetizes at silicon and cloud no matter which model wins. Cloud grew 82% on a $100B run rate.

Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker has argued hyperscaler capex is rational investment, not waste - the same read.

The call - the negative-FCF print is an entry into the cleanest way to own the AI buildout without betting on a single model.

Why model-layer commoditization is a tailwind for $GOOGL: https://t.co/UZXZ6RyaeA

https://t.co/UZXZ6RyaeA

Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/bDcSpBKRhp

[Peter DiCarlo @pdicarlotrader]

Everyone is fearful of $ORCL.

That’s when I pay attention.

We’re in one of the strongest discount zones in my data:

• ~92% historical bounce rate
• Marked the bottom ~70% of the time

New video breaks down the level and my long‑term case ⬇️

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

$CAT and $ETN are the flow-through on 100% factory capex expensing, now law for five years.
Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent calls it the concrete lever behind the reshoring push.

The Working Families Tax Cut makes prior tax cuts permanent and lets companies fully deduct capital expenditure on new factories over the next five years. It also strips tax on tips and overtime, cuts Social Security tax for 85% of seniors, and makes interest on American-made car loans deductible. Bessent cites tax refunds up 11% year over year as early evidence of reach. Full expensing front-loads the benefit into the build year, which pulls factory investment forward.

Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker makes the same investment-cycle point - cut the after-tax cost of capex and you get more capex, and the real economy re-rates around it.

For investors: a direct incentive for domestic factory buildout, and the beneficiaries are industrial and electrification suppliers - Caterpillar $CAT, Eaton $ETN, Rockwell $ROK - plus the contractors doing the construction Bessent says leads the jobs data. The five-year window is the clock: the incentive is strongest early, so watch capex announcements over the next several quarters.

The full policy breakdown is in the episode writeup:
https://t.co/YTNCB7QQ96

Source: The Way I Heard It - https://t.co/NJND19poSV

[Juan | Inversor Novato @InversorNovato_]

$ORCL acaba de cerrar el MEJOR año operativo de su historia.

Y al mismo tiempo protagoniza una de las peores caídas del sector software del año:

ORACLE -60% desde máximos 🔴

¿Qué está pasando aquí? Te lo explico 🧵

[Contrarian Capital @1Contrarian_]

@SharisaToYou @ST_BUCHI_ 😂 aggressive aaaaah

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

I just published a 6,000 word deep dive into $MSFT.

- Its software business is safe.
- AI capex will turn ROI positive.
- Changes in software pricing will drive growth.

It's also 15% undervalued. I am a buyer.

Full thesis below; it's free 👇
https://t.co/TdyVVj7tN3

[Emir M | Type-F Capital @em013L]

I also made my latest deep equity research report on Palantir completely free in honor of this. I highly recommend reading it to grasp the narrative of Palantir and what makes it such a special company:
https://t.co/pdyLcLPfMi

[Alex @TickerSymbolYOU]

If you missed $NVDA, this stock is next:

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

First $100k is a grind

Second $100k is inevitable

First Million is a system.

[심월 @mindmoon_108]

SK하이닉스 일본 주재원 계신 분이랑 커피챗 내용 간단하게 공유

1. 메모리 수요가 너무 강력해서 일본 고객들에게 줄 메모리가 없다.
미국이랑 중국 고객 주고 나면 일본에 줄 물량이 없다고 함. 그래서 일본업체들 찾아가서 매번 쓰미마셍 고개 숙인다고 함.

2. 메모리 부족으로 닌텐도 같은 전자제품 가격 계속 올리는 중.
메모리가 없어서 난야 같은 업체 뿐만아니라 윈본드 같은 업체도 찾는중.
CXMT는 기가바이트 통해서 이미 소비자용 제품으로 들어가고 있다고 함.

3. 일본에 있는 CXMT 한국엔지니어를 통해 듣기로는 CXMT 설계능력이 생각보다 엄청 뛰어나다고 함. 2-3년 격차가 아니라 그보다 더 좁혀질것 같다고 함. 진짜 중국의 똑똑한 인재들이 밤낮 안가��고 일한다고 함.
한국도 경계해야 할��.

4. 메모리 가격은 계속 인상 중.. 몇프로인지는 밝힐 수 없지만 계속 인상중. 오늘 엔비디아 소캠에 메모리 줄었다는 이슈로 주가가 내리는데 메모리 가격은 오히려 올라서 영업이익은 계속 올라갈 전망.

*개인적으로 걱정되는건 이런 메모리 가격 상승이 Capex 투자 부담으로 이어져서 AI 싸이클이 빨리 끝날까봐 걱정임. 구글도 채권찍고 있고 빅테크들도 현금이 떨어져 가는게 걱정됨.

*투자권유, 매수,매도 추천 아닙니다.

[Contrarian Capital @1Contrarian_]

@cashflow_king94 Bear thesis? If you have one

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

In 5 years, $AVGO exploded 1000% from $47 to $470+

Tonight will be $AVGO biggest earnings in history.

I'm bullish on it and here's why:

1. AI Revenue Is About to Print the Biggest Single-Quarter Number in Broadcom's History

The guided number was $10.7B in AI chip revenue for Q2. That is not just a beat setup, it is a structural acceleration. Q1 came in at $8.4B and already beat expectations. If tonight prints $11B or higher, that is 140%+ YoY growth on a base that is already massive. For context, Broadcom did $4.4B in AI revenue just two quarters ago. The market will reprice the entire forward earnings curve in one session. A number above guidance at this scale does not get a polite reaction. It gets a gap.

2. The Q3 Guide Is the Real Catalyst, Not Q2

Every sophisticated trader knows tonight is about Q3 guidance, not the print itself. If Hock Tan walks onto that call and guides Q3 revenue toward $24-25B with AI chip revenue above $12B, the stock re-rates immediately. The $100B AI revenue figure he cited for 2027 becomes a straight-line extrapolation the market can finally model with confidence. Institutions that have been waiting on the sidelines for a clean entry point will not wait for a pullback. They chase.

3. Dealer Hedging Creates a Mechanical Bid That Cannot Be Stopped

The options market is loaded. Call volume is running nearly 2:1 over puts with a 0.46 put/call ratio. AVGO is already trading in the positive gamma extension zone above C1. The moment the stock gaps up on earnings, every dealer who sold calls into this print is forced to buy shares to stay delta-neutral. That buying pushes price higher, which forces more buying. It is not sentiment driven at that point. It is mechanical. The gamma squeeze feedback loop on a $400+ stock with this much open interest can add 3-5% on top of whatever the fundamental move is.

4. The $MRVL Read-Through Just De-Risked the Entire Custom Silicon Thesis

$MRVL reported last week and exploded 25%+. Their custom AI silicon business confirmed that hyperscaler demand for custom accelerators is not slowing, it is accelerating into the second half of 2026. Broadcom is the largest custom silicon player on the planet with more hyperscaler customers than anyone. $MRVL just told the market the cycle is real and durable. When the sector leader reports into a tape where the second-largest player just validated every bull thesis, you do not get a quiet reaction. The $MRVL print is the pre-game show. $AVGO is the main event.

$AVGO if they beat will do $DELL and $HPE explosion move.

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll DM you my exact play for $AVGO earnings tonight.

[Cashflow King @cashflow_king94]

$AVGO is my highest conviction play heading into the second half of 2026.
Not $NVDA
Not $MSFT
Not $LLY
After tonight's blowout earnings I'm more convinced than ever.

Here's why Broadcom is the AI bet most people are sleeping on 🧵

[Wealth Squad Chris @Chrissssjohnson]

In terms of days

4% of a year is 14.6 days

You’re gonna be bored 350 days out the year and grow your wealth the last few days

If you miss one of the 14 days, you’re cooked, there’s an opportunity cost for chasing the other shiny object

[SouthernValue @SouthernValue95]

$META Alex Wang on Muse Spark and future larger models: it was a good model, we didn’t expect it to be frontier, it demonstrates our new stack is delivering “predictable scaling” in pre-training, RL, test-time, and multi-agent scaling efforts. We are cooking larger models that we are much more excited about.

[Brett Kessler @BrettKessler__]

I am starting a massive position in Uber $UBER first thing Monday morning, and it has absolutely nothing to do with ride sharing or food delivery.
Retail is looking at a tech app that just missed a top line revenue estimate. I am looking at the ultimate physical tollbooth. Here is why. 🧵

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$NOK thesis:

https://t.co/BlogYjaBqT

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

@FuturumEquities My full breakdown of the SpaceX IPO drops in one hour on the FE YouTube channel:

https://t.co/T7JKP9MIMs

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

I feel like SpaceX IPO could mark the peak for this cycle and we may get into a serious correction from there.

Here is a meltdown scenario:

- SpaceX reaches over $2 trillion valuation in its first week.

- Valuations across the board get bubbly.

- Inflation keeps inching up, the Fed has no other option but hike rates.

- AI infrastructure spending slows down, OpenAI & Anthropic postpone IPO.

- Yield curve inverts, we get into a recession.

- The market crashes by +25% from the current levels.

In a more likely scenario, bubble keeps inflating until OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs and we crash from there.

It looks like valuations are less important than ever, this is why it’s actually more important than ever.

Stay grounded, don’t ignore valuations.

We are moving a step closer to peak cycle every day and it won’t be pleasant for those who have stretched themselves too much.

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

The future of warfare being fought with embedded autonomous systems means that effective coordination across all domains is critical. $ONDS is building this ecosystem today, for the warfare of tomorrow.

This article I wrote on ONDS in March continues to be validated. Check it out if you would like to read more about how I believe ONDS, Worldview and Palantir tie it all together through stratospheric edge enablement.

https://t.co/XxFYodvaKj