In the era of all writing converging on “pretty good” with the help of AI, there is huge alpha in extemporaneous oratory
Being able to speak off the cuff, powerfully and persuasively, can’t be faked and there’s no replacement for it
@rasmr_eth@0xSisyphus My guess is that they want to cross-collateralize their event contracts as margin. not sure if builder codes would allow for this in an easy manner.
@P17Forza@chloejiani I'm not so sure. Yes, you can offer perp markets but the most important thing is liquidity in them. These prediction markets won't have much
The thing that most people miss initially with agents is that the scope of what we will produce will go up commensurate with what the tools can now automate, which basically means we’ll working the same or even more.
Everyone thinks that we will use AI to do what we already do but cheaper and faster, which would lead to fewer people or getting more time back. In fact it will just mean we’re doing more things.
Once we figured out that we can automate a particular task, you then expand the size of work to do many more of those or other tasks in a project. The result is that you’re actually combining many other previously hard to combine tasks into a single workflow, causing even more work.
The software project scope now multiplies because you know you can build far more. The customer insights project now balloons because you know you can reasonably aggregate far more data. The marketing campaign has even more creative production because it’s cheaper and easier.
This is going to happen in almost every field of work.
This post explains why Scam Altman got so touchy about his capital needs
Altmans positive cash flowing competitors (Google) will ensure negative unit economics on LLM models until OpenAI’s investors realize they’ll never see a return, and stop throwing good money after bad
sf is interesting because it is full of early adopters that tinker with technology two to three years ahead of the mainstream consciousness
crypto is interesting because it is full of early adopters that run financial experiments with billions of dollars live five to ten years ahead of traditional finance
hyperp markets on pre-TGE tokens and prediction markets on fdv 24h post TGE are fascinating because they are early experiments on these types of markets for how IPOs will be traded in the future
prediction markets on earnings are far preferable for folks that want directional exposure given 'you can be right and still be wrong' with call options on equities
21/ ADL is kind of like reaching the end of the Truman Show. Perps markets build this very beautiful simulation of the underlying spot
But at the of the day it’s all imaginary. Most of the time we don’t have to think about it… but sometimes we hit the edge of the simulation
Still can’t believe how wild this stream was.
Our Swiftie Quant - who had never used prediction markets - went 9 for 11 and we cashed over $2K.
He even nailed the 2.5M and 3.0M album sales calls, which were trading at just 30% and 14% odds.
His only misses? Two longshots: NO “Lover” and YES “Spotlight.”
Watch the highlights and all picks below 🎥