2ndadopter

Screws fall out all the time, the world is an imperfect place.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

Physical side - much less China imports / likely SPR releases + draw down of previous surplus + broader SPR releases in OECD + likely behavioral changes

All that still results in a decently sized gap however.

Financial - VAR risk limits made holding into a rolling series of “peace” announcements untenable + masterful execution narrative wise by US admin

Should be noted that bc of the continued physical realities and lost barrels, many traders have been waiting for the eventual reality of a peace of some sort to flush prices to offload the vol risk and allow the math work in their favor.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

Bond if I’m older, need the current income, clean credit, and have conviction the inflationary environment will be benign/falling.

Stock if I’m younger, have very high conviction on the growth rate, don’t need the current income, has pricing power to navigate inflationary environments.

Stock could also win bigly given tax characteristics.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@1444_kris @EpsilonTheory @JavierBlas The reason product flows thru SOH is cost. Divert west, and you still have a Houthi choke point at Bab Strait. Go north thru Suez and then you’re talking about swinging around Africa. Of course possible but adds tons of shipping cost.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@elonmusk 23 3rd grade girls are missing right around the corner from you in Hunt. If there’s anything you can do to help them, the world would once again appreciate your contribution. Starlink, resources, anything. Comms are shit, families scared.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@EpsilonTheory As I said to an all star buddy who got torched by a gal in his 20s, “hate the game” bro.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@EnergyCynic It’s float/flows driven. Get scale > reduce FANG overhang > alleviate governance drag > more indexation potential. Agnostic on price and they’re not wrong.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@WRGuinn My take: This is the Art of the Deal. We're watching a master at work. What's aim? No one knows. He's a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Shade him to his off hand? Good luck, he's ambidextrous. Take away the three, he's got midrange. It's all very healthy...

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@compound248 @threadreaderapp unroll

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@kofinas Don’t look at the For You or Following sections. Just curate a diverse view of folks in lists or favorites and create your own synthetic feed. Lots of great opinions if it’s used well.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@buccocapital @chamath It’s like when one asks their spouse why they need a $5 sub to something never used, and deflects saying it’s irrelevant. But it completely misses the point. Anything above zero is complete contempt for the funder. And obviously the tip of the iceberg.

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@ZmansEnrgyBrain Eagle Ford…

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@compound248

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@patrick_oshag Prolly James Perse

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@ThePeterMick @paulg Group > family > individual
Over indexing to the latter has arguably been the root of our problems and CA is ground zero on that charge.

[Fayez Sarofim & Co. US Clay @mensclaycourt]

124 mph ace to seal the deal 🔥

#USClay | @FTiafoe

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@antoniogm Rahm fan eh!

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@tomaspueyo @threadreaderapp unroll

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@SaveYourSons @threadreaderapp unroll

[2ndadopter @2ndadopter]

@theantonioreza @threadreaderapp unroll