999 Eth

#Crypto #Investing

DYOR. Not financial advice

[Amanda Orson @amandaorson]

The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question

What won't change in the next 10 years?

Things I've been writing down over time:

- Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare.
- The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth.
- The physical world will move more slowly than the digital one.
- Every increase in technological capability, especially AI, will require more energy.
- People and businesses will continue to need access to capital.
- Capital will continue to seek returns that exceed inflation.
- Underwriting methods evolve, but demand for credit (loans) is persistent.
- Trust remains scarce and becomes increasingly valuable as content, code, and fraud become cheaper.
- Verified identities and reputation becomes more important as information becomes abundant and synthetic.
- Long-term wealth creation and dynastic (multi-generational) thinking predate modern technology, and will persist.
- Coordination and transaction costs never fully disappear; market friction will continue to justify the existence of firms and intermediaries.
- People will continue to compete for status.
- Consumers will pay a premium for products and services that confer status.
- Time remains fixed at 24 hours per day.
- But attention is a finite resource and an enduring constraint.
- Products that credibly save time (or enable delegation) have a perpetual market.
- Inaccessible, proprietary data will be a persistent moat. The more inaccessible and difficult to aggregate, the deeper the moat.
- People want accountability, recourse, and clearly identifiable responsibility when things go wrong.
- Regulation consistently lags technological innovation.
- Compliance requirements, licensing, and regulatory moats persist even when machines can perform the underlying task.
- Local knowledge remains valuable and difficult to replicate.
- Heterogeneous markets (like real estate) continue to reward people with deep contextual understanding.
- Incumbent organizations tend to underinvest in disrupting their own businesses, which always creates opportunities for challengers.

Bezos' insight on what wouldn't change in 10 years was "Customers will always want lower prices and faster delivery."

It's boring/ true, but I think that's the point.

Everything we build today can and will be rebuilt more cheaply, faster by someone else.

Build on the invariants, not the trends.

What have I missed?

[KP @thisiskp_]

The most important piece in this writing is:

“A couple days later I was talking to the founder of a startup I'd funded. I began by asking, as I usually do when I meet a founder, what her growth rate was. 93% last month, she said. I pointed out that this meant her net worth was also growing at 93% a month. She was getting richer at a stupendously rapid rate. And yet she hadn't been doing anything bad. The reason her startup was growing so fast was simply that users loved what she'd built. So she could feel from her own experience how wrong that politician was. She wasn't exploiting anyone. Exactly the opposite in fact. The reason her startup was growing so fast was that she and her cofounder had been working their asses off to make their users happy, and as a result the users had been telling their friends. And that gets you exponential growth.

Later that day I was talking about her case online, and someone replied that having a few million and growing at 93% a month was radically different from being a billionaire.

I suspect many people would agree with this statement. But it turns out not merely to be false, but false in a very illuminating way.

So I would like you all to do me a favor please. I would like you to take out your phones and calculate a number. I know this may seem contrived, but I promise it will be useful for you. I'm going to have you do the most common kind of calculation I do as an investor, and the experience will bring home to you what startups are all about.

If we interpret his statement in the most conservative way and assume that a few means 2, her company has to grow 500x for her to become a billionaire. So we are going to calculate how many months of 93% growth it takes for something to grow 500x.

To do this we want to calculate the log base 1.93 of 500. The easiest way to do that is to go to Google search, which lets you do calculations right in the search box. So go to Google search and type log(500, 1.93). If you typed that right, the answer you get is about 9.45.

That is how many months of 93% growth it takes to become a billionaire, starting from 2 million. A couple million and 93% growth are not, in fact, radically different from a billion. They're nine and a half months apart.

Now you see why, when I meet a founder, the first thing I ask about is their growth rate.

But I don't want anyone to accuse me of using unrealistic numbers, so let's take a more conservative growth rate. Let's see what happens at 15% a month. That's not rare at all. I constantly encounter startups growing at 15% a month.

If your revenues grow at 15% a month, how much more will you be making 5 years from now? To calculate that, we need to find 1.15 to the 60th power (since 5 years is 60 months). So go to Google again and this time type 1.15^60. The answer should be about 4384. Meaning in 5 years your startup will be making 4384 times as much. If you're currently making ten thousand a month, in five years you'll be making about 44 million a month, or 526 million a year. And at that point, if you own as much of the company as founders typically do, you will be a billionaire.”

[hoeem @hooeem]

before I waste tokens in Claude Code or Codex I always use the following two prompts in a cheaper model to create a plan that can be followed with precision without unwanted token waste:

> Prompt 1 (the Karpathy prompt)

You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can. Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.

‼️: this is post 1 of 3 - prompt 2 is below.

[Saira @AiWithSaira]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE DON'T USE GROK FOR CRYPTO.

MOST TRADERS ARE LOOKING AT CHARTS FROM 3 MONTHS AGO.
GROK ANALYZES REAL-TIME SENTIMENT ON X TO ANTICIPATE TOMORROW.

HERE ARE 8 PROMPTS TO FIND THE NEXT 10X GEM:

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

This is how I see $BTC over the next months

June -> flat
July -> mini alt rally during bear
August -> dump to $50K
September -> fake bounce
October -> $40K bottom
November -> real bounce
December -> start of bull market

Bookmark this and come back at the end of the year.

[Naval @naval]

If the people you most look up to are investors and financiers, then your God is money.

[Jack @Jackkk]

Cobie explains how he finds the next big thing in Crypto

“I’ve never known what the next thing is gonna be, if you told me it would be pictures of apes in 2020, I would’ve said that doesn’t sound right”

“My mental model is you isolate your risk and you try novel things… instead of trying to figure out why something won’t work, you might as well give it a go”

“If you did this with Hyperliquid, you ended up a millionaire from the airdrop… same with FriendTech and buying ape pictures”

“People’s instinct is to say this is stupid and won’t work but you need to invert that and ask what if this worked?”

“Every time I see something weird, I just give it a go and try to figure out if it’s a new thing that’s gonna be important”

[K Kulkarni @ks_kulk]

Kanye West said this in 2022 on @lexfridman:

Lex: "What do you hope your legacy is?"

Ye: "To be forgotten. There's ego in memory. Who designed the sidewalk? Who designed the water fountain? Who designed the stop sign? Who designed the stop light? These things are so ubiquitous that the person that designed them is forgotten. If it's a good idea, it's a God idea."

[Jesus Freakin Congress @TheJFreakinC]

You thought Trump’s Iran war rants were unhinged…

Well, I turned them into a full emo song.

Enjoy.

[Bram Kanstein @bramk]

Ridiculously good explainer why Bitcoin is for Millennials, by @NotebookLM based on my book manuscript🤯👀

[Machiavelli Bot @UnmodernmanBot]

Never agree to carry pressure in a situation where you have no right to shape the outcome, because responsibility without authority does not make you important for long. It makes you absorb blame cheaply while other people enjoy the comfort of your obedience.

[primordial intelligence @primal_brainer]

The older you get, the more you realize luck is mostly exposure.

If you sit in the same place, have the same routine, talking to the same people, nothing new really happens.

You have to tackle the world to win.

Travel more. Talk to people. Try a breakfast spot. Post on social media. Start a side hustle or a hobby.

The world rewards motion. You don't find opportunity sitting still.

[lifemaxxers @lifemaxxjourney]

https://t.co/Wx05bcXQzr

[Dickie Bush @dickiebush]

All roads lead back to 9 PM bed time, 5 AM wake up, 4 hours of deep, focused work creative work first thing, work out mid day to break it up, admin & calls in the afternoon, hang with friends and loved ones in the evening, repeat forever.

[Amogh @guyfromhills]

if the thoughts get too big,
go somewhere you feel small

[H.E. Ayo Ige ESQ @ayo_ige]

If the law is against you, argue the facts.
​If the facts are against you, argue the law.
​If both the facts and the law are against you, argue procedure.
​If procedure, law, and facts are all against you — settle.

​A reminder that good advocacy is about strategy, not noise.

[Naval @naval]

If you aren’t getting happier as you get older, you’re doing it wrong.

[Suhail Kakar @SuhailKakar]

https://t.co/TpoSxwCVKk

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

In 1929, Roger Babson warned that a massive crash was coming.
Wall Street laughed.

47 days later, they lost everything.

Babson wasn’t guessing — he’d mapped a 5-stage pattern that shows up before every major collapse.

It appeared before the crashes of 1987, 2000, and 2008.

Today, 4 out of 5 stages are flashing red again: