Goldilocks

Local friendly vol guy. Traded derivatives for a while. Ran a pretty big family office for a while, now trading systematic macro for a while.

[Francesco @FranVezz]

A member shared this chart with me:

WOW!

[Physics In History @PhysInHistory]

The Black-Scholes equation, used to price financial options since 1973, is secretly a sibling of the heat equation from physics. Economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes borrowed the math of heat diffusion—how temperature spreads—to model stock price volatility. It’s a rare case where physics directly bankrolled Wall Street.

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

You guys need to understand the degeneracy of korean daytradooors. The KOSPI could fall 20% from friday and it'll still be +19% YTD. It could fall 50% and it will still be +30% YoY

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

@realEstateTrent The delays at MIA. 45min flight? 3hr delay.

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

@brettharrison @TradingDutchman It has a gym; we still don’t host the Olympics. If GDP/capita signaled tough regulators, Monaco would run Basel.

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

@brettharrison @TradingDutchman Not here to contest efficacy of their regs, but dude… citing gdp per capita? More people live in my apartment block than in all of Bermuda.

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

Knock knock.
Who’s there?
Auto.

Auto who?
Auto-callable. I’m structured for income, priced for complacency, and triggered by despair.
You thought you were clipping coupons…turns out, you were the coupon.

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

Great Summary…

[YQ @yq_acc]

https://t.co/Izhy7nIJKZ

[MV33Racing🏎 @MV33Racing]

There was a time when Formula 1 was a proper motor racing sport.

Back then, the cars were even less safe compared to modern cars.

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

@EffMktHype Did your kids throw up on the never ending winding roads to the top? Mine do… every time!

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

you can own Google at 17x earnings and short Costco at 50x earnings

long AGI short rotisserie chicken is actually value investing

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

“This is a reminder that it is expensive to kick the fiscal can down the road:” JPM's Priya Misra. After Moody's downgrade of the US, 30-year yields climb past 5%, approaching some of the highest levels since 2007.

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

The US steepener is still the trade that keeps on giving for 1 fundamental reason:

The market keeps on underestimating US nominal GDP growth!

SOFR Jun-26 is back to end-March levels and yet:

1. Z6 - 10Y curve is 25bp steeper
2. 2s10s is 20bp steeper

Plenty to go

1/

[Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) @SpecialSitsNews]

Investor cash levels falling from 4.8% to 4.5%

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

Long onshore banks short A50 on a total return basis has objectively been my most favoured l/s china play over the last couple of years. Its true.

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

What dominated the relative strength high list in China overnight? Banks! $FXI $KWEB $MCHI

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

The Great Refinancing Wall is incoming: 2026-2028 will make these numbers look like pixie dust. #refinancing

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

13/ Policy uncertainty leading to less institutional loan activity

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

🙄

[Goldilocks @AHA_Capital]

@amital13 what are the spillover risks to the rest of EMFX?