Active Beta

On the trading floor by day. In crypto 24/7. Value investor at heart. Here to build a better system.🛡

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

This will not stop the unavoidable ending. Internet made borders meaningles for distribution. AI and Robotics will do the same for manufacturing. Physical location of manufacturing facilities will not benefit from as many jobs as they used to. Chinese tech will run manufacturing.

[Frid 🇪🇺🦌 @Frid45]

France and Germany have reached a deal on Europe’s car industry.

France accepts more flexibility on the 2035 emissions rules, while Germany backs European preference.

The “Made in Europe” scheme would cover the 27 EU countries and close European partners, including the UK, Norway and Switzerland, subject to reciprocity and EU trade safeguards.

Eligible cars would need European assembly and at least 70% European value in non-battery components.

EU approval is still required.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

especially this combination. Governments want to know everything you own and will “tax” them directly from your account. Moving them privately on chain is the only long term solution.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: John Healey will announce at the Budget that HMRC will be given powers to seize money directly from the bank accounts of people who fail to pay their tax

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

You are not bullish enough on Privacy

[Merryn Somerset Webb @MerrynSW]

It's like they actually want everyone to leave. ...The HMRC letter asking rich people to reveal what they own

https://t.co/tx0SErgZK5

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@ValueStockGeek these make me question my gold allocation, it basically underperformed 1995-2025, all of these posts are due to massive outperformance/catch-up last year.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

The bonds were riskier in 2022 , now the yields are normalised on short end, but can steepen a bit more on long end. We didn’t have the expected crash on risk assets because we never hit6% on FF rate.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

I am in line with Ray Dalio Estimates 4,5 % - 6% on bond yields, 20% drop on equities. Staying with my plan: Pay Long term rates, keep out of risk assets, stay in short term cash. once these anomalies are cleared, buy bonds at 6% and equities at 3200

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@yaroslavwr_ @BostonZcash @jswihart for a long while

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

3) Reality is most people do not care about privacy or decentralization. That is why you have billions of people using Facebook etc. Some of the Bitcoin community who cared about these founding values may migrate to another chain (Zcash?) which provides this.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@yaroslavwr_ @BostonZcash @jswihart has been for a while

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

BTC moving to ETF is tax and reg capture before our eyes. ETF is easier to hold than tokens, and it wins as investors are too lazy (including myself). Holders can be exposed to US estate tax, income tax and others restrictions. Therefore true freedom seekers are moving to Zcash.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

New blog post: “The Exit Pump” (and its is not about Stocks or Crypto) https://t.co/5V9xyFTAYK

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@rickyho_1989 @jam_croissant Battery technology as well. More of the AI will be run on devices, which will be reliant on more Battery. People initially thought it is all about CPU and memory is a commodity. Recently they realised memory tech gives an edge. They still think Energy is just a commodity.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

BYD $1211.HK

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

I'm getting pretty bulled up on lithium, EVs, and solar here.

The Hormuz/oil issue changes the EV-to-oil trade-offs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more countries adopt solar and EVs going forward as a "Nationally Strategic" Alt Energy Source.

Lots of interesting setups!

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

Time to start catching falling knives !

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@VincentGeloso @moo9000 since equilibrium is always sought, the correct phrase may be „capital can be fine under dictatorships“. Logically dictatorship should be less preferred as you say. However if the alternative political view is anti capitalist, this can lead to the the „relative“ safety perception

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@HHorsley ZCash thesis has always been simple, it is Swiss Private Bank account of crypto. In this crowded world of crypto assets, it deserves a top 3 spot. 0.25-0.30 ZEC/BTC ratio is not un-reasonable.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@gajria yes this is a risk. There is even a probability Satoshi resurfaces one day and swaps to shielded ZEC. That will be a short term super bullish for ZEC , but long term bearish for store of value narrative. But base case, Zcash will grow much bigger but not replace BTC.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@XRPathologist 💯

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

The good thing about crypto was that you don‘t need a brokerage account to access. But no point being sentimental, establishment has won, lets enjoy the pump. And may be there is still a chance for all ETFs to be freed up from shackles and become available on chain one day.

[Jonah @jvb_xyz]

LLMs are absorbing most white-collar work. Humanoid robots will take most blue-collar jobs.

This will yield an ultrarich 0.1% elite. Everyone else will be super pissed off, demand redistribution, and look for scapegoats.

0-5y: asset prices will rip higher as capital front-runs infinite labor.

5-10y: Western politics will flip, national socialism will rise, markets will crack, and persecution/pogroms will return.

Crypto is the outlet: for capital escaping politics, and for the displaced betting on a way back in.

The full transition will take 10-20y.

AI kills labor. Politics kills capital. Crypto escapes both.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@goodalexander @TheCryptoDog good post, I agree with it, but the main risks to this thesis 1) crypto is the bigger scam and 2) 4 year cycle is real.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@_tm3k 🫡

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

3) Reality is most people do not care about privacy or decentralization. That is why you have billions of people using Facebook etc. Some of the Bitcoin community who cared about these founding values may migrate to another chain (Zcash?) which provides this.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

Believe in something, through tick and thin

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

3) Reality is most people do not care about privacy or decentralization. That is why you have billions of people using Facebook etc. Some of the Bitcoin community who cared about these founding values may migrate to another chain (Zcash?) which provides this.

[Active Beta @ActiveBeta]

@naval @balajis ZCash has pedigree. Bitcoin is replacing gold, and Zcash needs to replace Bitcoin. Inflows to Bitcoin is coming through ETF and MSTR i.e. tradfi route. Those that care about crypto ideals , freedom and privacy, need to gather around a private gold.