Alex Coffey

Host & Contributor, @SchwabNetwork.
Senior Trading & Derivatives Strategist, @CharlesSchwab.
Important Disclosures:

[Alex Coffey @AlexCoffeyCS]

Always great to catch up with @RyanDetrick

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

I am set to join @J_B_Horne and @AlexCoffeyCS on @SchwabNetwork Next Gen next!

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

I am set to join @J_B_Horne and @AlexCoffeyCS on @SchwabNetwork Next Gen next!

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Thanks @J_B_Horne and @AlexCoffeyCS for having me back on the @SchwabNetwork today!

[Alex Coffey @AlexCoffeyCS]

T-minus 5 ish mins

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Coming up soon on the @SchwabNetwork with @J_B_Horne and @AlexCoffeyCS! 🍿 📺

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Over 73% of all-time highs occur within 5 days of the prior one.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Here's what May has done the past 13 years.

Down only once and that was in 2019 when stocks still gained almost 30%.

[Carson Investment Research @CarsonResearch]

Yes, May–October is historically the weakest six-month stretch of the year. Average return of 2.1%, higher only 65.8% of the time. The data is real.

But "weakest" doesn't mean "negative." And lately, it's been anything but weak.

🧵

[Barbara Armstrong @BarbArmstrongCS]

Are you new to Investing? Or do you have a friend or family member new to investing.

@AlexCoffeyCS & @RachelDashCS are helping beginner investors get started through an 8-part series every Thursday at 4pm ET. Check it out: https://t.co/g52nyiA4Ut

@SchwabTrading

[Sonu Varghese @sonusvarghese]

Q1 Real GDP growth @ 2.0% (below trend)

Final sales +2.8%
- Govt re-opening
- Huge AI-related investment, but a lot of this is imported (not "domestic product")

What matters for stocks is nominal GDP growth. That's hot 🔥
Q1: +5.6%
12M: +6.0%

@CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick

[Rachel Dashiell, CFP, CMT @RachelDashCS]

Are you or a friend, colleague, or family member new to investing?

@AlexCoffeyCS and I are helping beginner investors get started through an 8-part series every Thursday at 4pm ET on "Trader Talks: Schwab Coaching" on YouTube

Check out the full series here: https://t.co/zEDl6LdoBY

@SchwabTrading @SchwabNetwork

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

Always a blast to join @SchwabNetwork to talk @NewConstructs research with @AlexCoffeyCS. Big changes are afoot with $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AAPL. For value, go where no one else is looking $MPLX, $UAN and $ALV. Details reports on our site.

[Alex Coffey @AlexCoffeyCS]

@theRealDTrain37 @SchwabNetwork @NewConstructs Thank you!

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

Positioning Update (daily) via @t1alpha @profplum99

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 has been up 12 of the past 13 Mays.

The S&P 500 has been up 9 of the past 10 Junes.

The S&P 500 has been up the past 11 Julys.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

🚨 A gallon of regular gas is 44% more expensive than three months ago

[Alex Coffey @AlexCoffeyCS]

Common sense

[Yasir Ai @AiwithYasir]

🚨BREAKING: Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper that should be uncomfortable reading for every CEO automating their workforce right now.

The argument is straightforward. Every company replacing workers with AI is also eliminating its own future customers. Laid off workers stop spending. Enough of them stop spending and nobody can afford to buy anything. The companies that fired everyone end up selling into an economy with no purchasing power left.

Every executive can see this. The math is not complicated. But here is why nobody stops.

If you do not automate, your competitor does. They cut costs, lower prices, take your market share, and you collapse anyway. So every company automates knowing it is collectively destructive because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives. The researchers proved this is a Prisoner's Dilemma playing out in real time.

The numbers are already moving. Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year. Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that within the next year the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion. Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI. Goldman Sachs deployed a coding tool that lets one engineer do the work of five. Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 and AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half those cases. 80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation.

The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income does not change a single company's incentive to automate. Capital income taxes adjust profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human. Collective bargaining cannot hold because automating is always the dominant strategy.

They also identified what they call a Red Queen effect. Better AI does not solve the problem, it accelerates it. Every company chases faster automation to gain market share over rivals but at the end everyone has automated equally, the gains cancel out, and the only thing left is more destroyed demand.

The one thing the math says could work is a Pigouvian automation tax. A per-task charge that forces companies to account for the demand they destroy each time they replace a worker.

The conclusion is that this is not a transfer of wealth from workers to owners. Both sides lose. Workers lose income. Companies lose customers. It is a deadweight loss with no market mechanism to stop it on its own.

(Link in the comment)

[Schwab Trading @SchwabTrading]

Here’s this week’s #earnings overview as well as the economic events that may impact the market 📈📉 Not A Recommendation

🔗: https://t.co/k9Gsu0e6hZ

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Thanks @AlexCoffeyCS and @SchwabNetwork for having me back to discuss the incredible 🐂 market.

[Alex Coffey @AlexCoffeyCS]

Great conversation with @RyanDetrick earlier this morning on #MorningTradeLive on @SchwabNetwork... check it out below!

Detrick: Rally Foundations Intact Despite Iran Volatility https://t.co/PmasK1eXab via @YouTube

[Schwab Research @SchwabResearch]

Cooper Howard joins the Big 🖼️on #MorningTradeLive with host @AlexCoffeyCS to discuss the outlooks for the Fed and interest rates, along with our bond market strategy.

📽️ @SchwabNetwork

Affiliation Disclosure: https://t.co/NtgcFM7a5B
https://t.co/i3oZZnWe32