Today, we're batch shipping 80% of the mobile code we’ve written this past quarter.
First, a breakdown of the other 20%: across 42 releases, our 5-person squad launched the first perpetual futures in the US and trading experiences (explore overhaul, 15-minute charts, live chat, World-Cup hub, inner-circle, etc.) that have led Kalshi to top the App Store rankings for most of the past month.
But all of this was just a fraction of the team’s firepower. At night, we were quietly working on a big project: “V2”, a complete rewrite of our app and the biggest technical leap I’ve seen since I joined the company 6 years ago.
4000 commits and 1 million lines later, the numbers are in and they justify the crazy sprint we just went through:
- CPU usage: 369% peak -> 15% peak
- Memory use: 350M -> 70MB
- Install size: 315MB -> 95MB (for reference: RH @ 934MB, Coinbase @ 310MB)
- External dependencies: 94 -> 11
- Test coverage: 17% -> 100%
When you get the update, Kalshi should immediately feel significantly faster, smoother, sleeker, and more responsive.
For our product velocity, V2 represents a massive shift as well: we now have a single codebase from which the team can push changes to our backend, iOS, and Android builds. The only code that runs on the client is the code that the team wants to run on the client. We have end-to-end type safety, CI with version-tagged deploys, and client<->server integration tests. We’d already gotten in the habit of daily releases, but with our latest tooling, it’s now a breeze.
We’re keeping the team lean, but if you are incredibly talented, work hard, and want to build the next generation financial market,. DM me or apply on our careers website.
Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others.
In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set of questions and harness the power of the masses to price them better than Wall Street.
Kalshi was born to fulfill that dream.
Today, most of these questions are traded indirectly, priced through imprecise proxies or negotiated bilaterally in opaque, restricted, relationship-driven markets. But thanks to our incredible community of users who make our markets work, Kalshi has the opportunity to change that by turning historically fragmented and untradeable risk into open, liquid, and standardized markets.
We’ve seen this movie before. When interest rates, currencies, commodities, and crypto moved from dark to lit markets, volume did not just migrate: access expanded, new use cases emerged, and the opportunity grew by orders of magnitude.
Today, Kalshi represents over 90% of US prediction market volume and the majority of activity globally, with annualized volume growing to $178B over the past 6 months.
What started as retail is quickly becoming institutional — hedge funds, asset managers, prop firms, and insurers are beginning to trade, provide liquidity, and hedge real-world risk directly. The scope and scale of prediction markets are just beginning to take shape.
We’re using this new capital to accelerate the institutional adoption underway — unlocking trillions in capital to facilitate active trading and risk management.
Prediction markets are moving from early adoption to core financial infrastructure. This is just the beginning.
@cpoetzscher Stuff like this really makes you wonder if anyone’s actually reviewing or checking for “quality” - you are welcome to make whatever argument you want, but let’s at least keep it somewhat coherent lol
@mattforthelikes @BucknSF Are you suggesting the TCO impact is driven by the amount of time it takes infra engineers to rewrite the code necessary to have the LLMs interact with the hardware? Isn't Cerebras more focused on reducing the cost of training (which seems like a real pain point) vs. inference
@bryce I've always thought of blockchain networks as a way to decentralize the compute required to keep a networking running (incentives in the form of tokens). In these consumer apps (if they are decentralized) how do you think about the hurdle of getting users to pay the validators?
@bucketshopcap Coreweave: it seemed like they had capacity when none of the big guys did - don't know enough about their approach to data center construction to know if they've determined a cheaper way to provide GPU compute to these LLM and AI Application companies
@bucketshopcap OpenAI: NTM Revenue should(?) double to a $8B run-rate, so an implied EV/NTM Revenue of 17-19x. For comparison, PLTR trades at 24.7x EV/NTM Revenue with 21% NTM Growth and 81% Gross Margins. Future GM profile is unknown, but you can squint and see a reasonable fwd rev multiple