Alessandro Niglio

Alessandro is an Italian enthusiastic reader. He is a value-oriented investor in continuous search of opportunities in the Italian equity market.

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@AKWilk What do you the reason of the sell-off? The flat margins in 2027 or the Customers growth at 17%?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@AyusoValue Did u had a look to the current liability amount? I think you should factor working capital adjustments in your EV

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@ZeeContrarian1 Why many insiders are selling?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@1MainCapital @marketplunger1 I think my numbers include 2018. I see CAD843m in cash acquisition. Am I missing something?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@AndrewRangeley @buckleycapital Are they not paying too much? Also considering in addition the 25% of the price paid through the issuance of equity you get diluted along the way

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@AndrewRangeley @buckleycapital The company had 600m revenue in 2018 assuming yoy organic growth of 4% this brings revenue in 2023 to 731m. Now they have 1,425m which means they acquired around 695m from M&A by paying 2,050. 3x revenue. Assuming 20% ebitda margin pre synergies this is a 15x EBITDA.

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@ZeeContrarian1 Did you close the recent one?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@TransformerCap @JamesHollier24 What about the 843m in 2018? Also even if you consider your numbers from 2019 this is only cash. They pay 25% in stock and 75% in cash. You need to adjust for that imho. The EBITDA multiple is around 13.5x then? Isn’t?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@JamesHollier24 Are they not paying too much? Also considering in addition the 25% of the price paid through the issuance of equity you get diluted along the way.

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@JamesHollier24 The company had 600m revenue in 2018 assuming yoy organic growth of 4% this brings revenue in 2023 to 731m. Now they have 1,425m which means they acquired around 695m from M&A by paying 2,050. 3x revenue. Assuming 20% ebitda margin pre sinergies this is a 15x EBITDA.

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@TheRealDavey2 Hi Davey, what fo you think about working capital? Receivable are 2.7x payable. When you consider that even after adjusting for the cash the impact on the EV would be significant. Based on June data the EV would be 300m higher

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@kingdomcapadv $SENEA how you get comfortable with the fact that if you use FIFO figures provided by the management, the inventory turnover is only 1.6x agains the peers having 5x. What is the risk of perishable food there? Also the auditor identified the inventory valuation as critical matter

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@WealthOrDie According to the economist their late investments in EV will have an impact on the integration in their supply chain given the low access to the chip and battery (which is low compared to others). Huge Capex is needed. However, I agree really cheap!

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@SteadyCompound Sign in me please

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@AndrewRangeley @puppyeh1 Question: assuming that they will start the M&A campaign, who is going to buy?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@jesse_kleine I have a friend she locked a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in Europe at 1.48% in December 2021 😅

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@Mc_Partnerships @pmje73 Hi Chris, it seems the link is not working

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@hasilp89 @aggresivevalue Thanks for the clarification. Do you know any relevant comparable that produce steel using EAF at the moment?

[Alessandro Niglio @Alexniglio]

@aggresivevalue One thing that is not clear to me is the fcf after the conversion. I am not a specilist. I have spent only couple of hours but maybe clear this to me. Looking at $eaf they produce 160M tons per year. In the last 4 years the highest revenue were $1.9b and an EBITDA of $1.2b (2019)