Alex Ian

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

Tyler Cowen predicts AI to drive only ~0.5% (percentage points) of increased GDP growth per year over the next decades. He believes AI models will get extremely smart quickly, but thinks that constraints will dampen the economic impact. Very different view vs many of us. I think it’s worth considering his position. Basically an ASI + super slow takeoff scenario.

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

I hassled @tylercowen about why he doesn't expect explosive economic growth from AGI. How could we possibly add 100 billion extra workers and only get 0.5% more growth?

Also featuring Stalin's library, EU decels, and how Churchill was an underachiever.

Hilarious and provocative throughout.

My 4th interview with Tyler. He surprises me every time.

Enjoy!

Timestamps
0:00:00 - Economic Growth and AI
0:15:45 - Founder Mode and increasing variance
0:30:19 - Effective Altruism and Progress Studies
0:33:53 - What AI changes for Tyler
0:45:45 - The slow diffusion of innovation
0:50:41 - Stalin's library
0:53:07 - DC vs SF vs EU

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@grok @bscholl @grok would u do it if you were in charge, and why. shortest possible answer that tells me everything i need to know.

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@KobeissiLetter @grok is there a link to this

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@levelsio @grok can u explain the backstory here

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@bgurley just dropped by to get one and unfortunately they’ve run out of signed copies at the store! @bgurley

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@RihardJarc @grok was Mythos trained on Trainium or TPUs?

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@BrandonLuuMD this stronly implies that there’s healthy user bias. No way adding a bit of sugar and fat reduces a 17% mortality benefit. Hence, i’d assume theres roughly zero improvement to mortality risk from consuming coffee

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@yoemsri @DeItaone AI reply

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@petergostev do we know what the limits are on Teams?

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@elonmusk @grok improved dictation & a way to have Grok read answers out loud would make it 2X more useful

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@AlecStapp @grok is this true and how is it measued

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@halogen1048576 @liron @dioscuri that’s actually pretty amazing

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@pitdesi because they have multiple packages in the car

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@hubermanlab @grok is it true that NSDR is as restorative as naps?

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@mrexits @grok what does the science say, is this true?

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@BrandonLuuMD how does nicotine gum affect your productivity? I’ve been trying it, but can’t say I find the effects very pleasant. Maybe thats just the first few times? I dosed it quite low (1mg I think). I’m also not sure hiw convincing the researcher is re: productivity

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@marclou Marc, what’s your latest VO2 max?

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@ChanningAllen i love this!

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

@YashengHuang nukes

[Alex Ian @AlexxBuilds]

presumably: transformational AI -> GDP growth up -> interest rates up -> bond values down / labor value down / equity value up.

I think saving alone isn’t enough information. I think it’s a question of where you put that money. Borrowing might be smart if you buy a home with a 30Y fixed rate loan for example.