Amy Woolf

Recently retired nuclear nerd. Facts are facts, opinions, are mine, and baseball is less interesting now that there is a pitch clock.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@shashj Absolutely true. It will be really difficult to convince allies or adversaries that we will fight a nuclear war for Europe when we won't join the conventional fight. So nuclear promise is either not credible, or it's a commitment trap where we say "call us when you are losing."

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@RadioFreeTom He thinks we defend Washington with rifles and pistols????

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@AaronBlake I think the correct formulation should be "take away his biscuit." There are no "codes on the football."

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@AnthonyAdragna There's really only one way to do that in the stated period of time.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@KingstonAReif So nice to know that someone is still maintaining my favorite chart 😃

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@bpmckeon64 @Nationals @VerizonSupport I got the same result by phone with customer service—new package and lower price. They were just so lax about letting me know I needed to do that, I missed the first inning of opening day!

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@bpmckeon64 @Nationals I had the same problem, and customer service actually upgraded my plan pretty quickly. Then they tried to sell me a bunch of add-ons, when all I wanted to do was watch baseball.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@james_acton32 She should turn around and say "and you didn't tell us about your atomic bombs." But he'd probably take it as a chance to brag about how "strong" the US is with its nuclear weapons. There is not bottom.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@james_acton32 This is appalling

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@KomissarWhipla @DavidSantoro1 For the record, I am not a fan of the U.S. argument that "a large portion of Russia's nuclear weapons are not covered by arms control" as a way to avoid arms control, but, Russia has more warheads for NSNW than the UK and France have in total. So either count everything, or not.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@NormOrnstein Obscene

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@ProfTalmadge @EvansRyan202 Also reveals that they've never read Schelling.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@EvansRyan202 It reveals how little they understand the basics of deterrence and compellence. Their threats are filled with credibility gaps and commitment traps. Plus, even if Iran capitulates, it has no reason to believe the U.S. won't attack anyway. This is not a mob shakedown...

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@walberque B-52 conversions and SLBM uploads are "low hanging fruit" of upload. NST allowed easy reconversion for both; B-52s and SLBM conversions were THE issue for Russia's complaints about U.S. compliance. And NO amount of money thrown at NNSA will speed infrastructure expansion.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@james_acton32 Or it’s “we can agree to this because it won’t interfere with anything we want to/are able to do.” That may be fine for those on one side of the debate but I would expect objections from those who would reject any sign of restraint even if it has no effect on our plans.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@james_acton32 That kind of fits with the assessment that the it would take a few months, at least, to implement upload plans with current operational and manpower limitations. So the President's "we won't extend" and the advisors "we have no plans for the next few months" fits together. (2/2)

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@james_acton32 The advisor says its the "status quo" because we don't have any plans to re-arm (for the next 6 months, as that's the time-frame they talked about). Seems like a case of "we don't have any plans in the very near term, and you can call it whatever you want." (1/2)

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@tshugart3 CRS analysts are not allowed to make recommendations. And, if they try, it will be removed in one of the five levels of the review process.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@DarylGKimball @BarakRavid You know the answers to those questions.

[Amy Woolf @AmyWoolf8]

@walberque @russianforces @shashj @KomissarWhipla I'd argue that some of those things are not even on the list of "all the things" because they wouldn't even be on the horizon until the current program of record finishes about 20 years from now. Then they don't count as "responses to NST expiration."