AsunderUK

My notebook for trading US growth stocks and ETFs. Not investment advice

[AsunderUK @AsunderUk]

@bbcnickrobinson - why ask about a report you haven’t even looked at? You repeatedly get the definition used in that report wrong. Goodwin's report is based on the ONS ethnicity question which is self-identified, the King would likely identify as White British. Have you not completed the census?
Shockingly poor "journalism", I've made a complaint to @BBC. No wonder public trust in BBC News is so low.

[Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson]

Is King Charles “a white Briton” ? I ask the leader of @RestoreBritain to explain why his warning that Britain is becoming an Islamic country is based on a report which suggests he’s not.

[AsunderUK @AsunderUk]

$GOOG is now below the 200-day moving average.

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:

This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term

Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries

Google’s response?

Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for

A few examples to illustrate:

For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model

I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid

This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much

However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding

It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem

Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision

Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting

This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed

But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”

The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off

So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam

This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)

This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes

Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day

And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off

Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target

These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow

Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs

Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future

This is now no longer the case

At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

[AsunderUK @AsunderUk]

$GOOG looks good around the 100-day SMA ($341, currently $351)

[CK Capital @CKCapitalxx]

$NOK has stacked up deal after deal for two straight weeks and the stock has done nothing but bleed, down roughly 30% from its June highs while the news flow gets better by the day.

Here is all that has happened.

>>Orange Belgium, this week. Nokia selected as the SOLE supplier for a multi-year transformation of the operator’s entire transport network, unifying fixed and mobile into one converged optical network across Belgium, running 400G and beyond.

>>The Google deal. Gemini AI agents embedded directly into Nokia’s network software, layering high margin AI on top of the hardware they already sell.

>>The Amazon deal. Nokia’s Autonomous Networks Fabric running on AWS, building toward fully self-driving networks with the biggest cloud on earth.

>>The Pennsylvania expansion. A major buildout of their photonic chip facility, one of the only advanced semiconductor packaging plants on US soil, part of a multi-billion dollar US manufacturing push the
administration keeps spotlighting.

>>Four insiders bought on the open market last month between $15.34 and $16.02. The stock trades around $12, well below every price they paid.

The numbers also speak loud.

AI and cloud revenue up 49% last quarter. Optical networks up 20% on hyperscaler demand.

A $1 billion NVIDIA investment behind the 6G push. EUR 1 billion order backlog.

$GOOG, $AMZN, Orange, the US government, and their own executives all committing to Nokia in the same month the market sold it down 30%.

Earnings July 23. The disconnect gets resolved one way or another.

[AsunderUK @AsunderUk]

The buying windows, on red days, are narrow but if you load up then, you don't have to do much else

[mon @moninvestor]

$FTC - Filtronic is a very interesting company.

It's a UK micro-cap with a leading niche in high-power E-band GaN amplifiers, the tech enabling Starlink's 4x backhaul advantage over Kuiper.

The company is sitting on a record order book that includes the £47.3m SpaceX contract, with a pipeline of 4 projected new space customers and rising EU defence spend all set to drive real revenue growth from FY27 onwards.

Two near-term catalysts:

1. New customers.
Management is projected to add 4 new major space customers this year for initial orders, which would meaningfully de-risk the SpaceX revenue concentration.

2. SpaceX IPO.
Likely to trigger a sector-wide re-rate across the Starlink supply chain, where $FTC is one of the few public-market pure-plays.

@Kaizen_Investor and @CoffeeStocksGuy got in early.

No position yet, but I am considering starting one.

Not financial advice.

[Coffee House Stocks @CoffeeStocksGuy]

$FTC is down 44% in a month. My article from a few months back is the most viewed $FTC article on X. I sold when the stock popped a couple of months ago.

$SPCX IPO’d on June 12. The post-IPO unwind is repricing every name in the supply chain.

$FTC has no exposure to SpaceX’s capital structure, instead it has exposure to SpaceX’s order book -that’s a different thing entirely.

Since my deep dive: new £6m US customer contract, European defence prime contract added, EBITDA ahead of consensus

SpaceX’s infrastructure build-out didn’t pause because its share price did. SpaceX's annual capital expenditures quintupled in two years, hitting $20.7 billion in 2025,

My re-entry plan:
Tranche 1: 200p
Add a tranche every 10% lower from there

$FTC

[AsunderUK @AsunderUk]

$OUST in a buy zone around $40

[KawzInvests @KawzInvests]

$MU reports tomorrow.

Micron has beaten Wall Street estimates by +27% and +33% the last two quarters. Not close calls. Blowouts.

Memory prices have been moving in a chain. Korean export prices move first. Industry trackers(trendforce) pick it up a few weeks later. Wall Street analysts update their models last. By the time the models catch up, Micron has already signed contracts at the higher prices and locked in the margin.

That lag is structural. It does not go away until the AI buildout slows. Nothing says that is happening anytime soon with hyperscalers projected to spend $400B+ in capex this year alone.

Tomorrow we find out if the beat accelerates a third time.

Full pre-earnings breakdown on Substack. Live now. Link in bio and in the replies. $SNDK $EWY $DRAM

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC.

Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025.

Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year.

And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well!

Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.

[Harry - 26 🇬🇧 - Journey to 100k S&S ISA @BoringUKMoney]

The last thing your “tax-free” ISA sees before being raided in the Autumn 2026 Budget

[mon @moninvestor]

The seven beaten down quality stocks.
$SPGI. $MA. $NFLX. $MSFT. $META. $UBER. $RDDT.

Everyone's piled into AI and the semiconductor and memory names, anything with a bottleneck and meanwhile a load of genuinely great companies are sitting near the bottom of their ranges with nothing actually wrong with them.

- S&P Global is down 19% YTD, trading at the cheapest it's been in five years, and the business itself is doing fine. It's revenue almost doubled in 5 years but the stocks is up around 5% over that period.

- Mastercard's, the same story, growing earnings in the high teens, still dominating, sitting right at the bottom of its valuation range.

- Netflix is down 42% from its peak for basically no reason, while still growing subscribers and earnings.

- Microsoft's 29% off its highs and cheap on earnings.

- Meta's down 26% from its highs, spending every dollar it makes building out compute, still wildly profitable.

- Uber's a good one too, 31% off its highs but it's growing earnings fast and sitting near the bottom of a much bigger range.

- Reddit's another I'd keep an eye on. It gets dismissed as just a discussion forum, but it's one of those businesses people underestimate until the numbers force them to pay attention. Note: RDDT has 4.4 billion visitors per month.

When the market gets dragged up by a handful of massive names, the less exciting ones get forgotten, and that's the gift. You get to buy quality businesses you've already done the work on, at prices nobody's paying attention to.

So if I was running a million dollar portfolio, I'd rather pick some of these up now while they're boring and just wait it out. You don't get rewarded for chasing what's already running.

[CD$ (TinCup) @CDTradertincup]

@Mapago9 1. Trump owns in portfolio, one of his largest positions

2. Jensen told you to buy, that the market has it wrong

3. The CEO canceled all sales and bought 3M more in shares at $107

3 reasons

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

3/1: "four to five weeks"
3/9: "very soon"
3/16: "won't be long"
3/23: "very good and productive conversations"
3/26: talks to end the war are “going very well"
3/29: "I think we'll make a deal with them, pretty sure"
4/1: “very shortly”
4/6: "They’ve made a proposal, and it’s a significant proposal."
4/8: ""A big day for World Peace!"
5/18: "we’ve had very big discussions with Iran"
5/23: "will be announced shortly."
6/1: "rapid pace"
6/11: "next few days"

[Paradise Mint @paradisemint]

I woke up this am to an allocation of 29 x $SPCX shares in my account out of the 200 I requested @RobinhoodApp so got about 13% of what I requested.

My wife just a couple days ago requested 25 shares @RobinhoodApp and they filled 13 shares on her account. So she got over 50% of the shares she requested.

Not sure how the shares are split up at robinhood.

Anyways, happy to own a few shares. Will be interesting to see where this one goes today.

Who else goes some shares of SpaceX? $SPCX?

[Jay Yoon @jaysyoon]

So to recap, today $LITE CEO Michael Hurlston:

1) Confirmed LITE is on pace to meet or exceed the top-end of its guidance
2) Confirmed $NVDA scale-out and scale-up CPO timelines
3) Highlighted NPO for non $NVDA customers as a massive new, near-term opportunity that is even bigger than CPO
4) Communicated that demand has expanded even more relative to expectations from just 1-2 months ago

Easiest dip buy ever.

[Irrational Analysis @insane_analyst]

Painful comments section. Let me spell it out.

$LITE and $AVGO have superior laser design and fabrication process. They can deliver same noise performance and power with much shorter cavity length.

Everyone else has to make lasers 60% longer, obliterating InP area and yield.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Fun times with market corrections.

Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%.

Funny to see media always trying to explain like:

"Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks "

Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex.

Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase.

But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs.

Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)

[PhotonBull @PhotonBull]

$NBIS

Kind of a big amount of money combined with a relatively short amount of time and a risky strike price

After seeing @daniel_koss and @babyfolio speculate on a potential deal soon (I would recommend following them for $NBIS thoughts and research)

This does seem really weird to the point where it is suspicious 👀🤔

[WanderingAmerican @usawandering]

$SIVE

Upon different market openings for their country

Swedes: “How is this shit up? This company is garbage. Sell”

Americans: “8% discount on the future of communication channels inside AI compute? Don’t mind if I do. Buy”

Swedes: “Wtf we pushed this down 8% yesterday. How is it back up? Fucking sell.”

Americans: “Haha! Back down again today? My good fortune knows no bounds. Buy💸”

Swedes: 🤬🤯😡

And that is pretty much how it’s been going owning $SIVE