3 small-cap names quietly powering the AI infrastructure boom.
Each one supplies a different piece of what makes large-scale AI actually work.
Check this out:
A bullish setup for me is when the 9-day EMA is above the 21-day EMA & the stock is holding both the 50-day & 200-day SMA so both momentum + structure are moving in the same direction.
If the only level a stock is holding is the 200-day SMA then the long-term trend is still intact but the momentum has faded so I treat it as a hold.
When the price breaks below all three levels then that is when I consider the trend bearish because the short-term, intermediate & long-term signals are all pointing the same way.
MY 4 FAVORITE DRONE COMPANIES
One of my top initiatives for the Growth Portfolio over the rest of the year is building out my 'Drone' bucket.
I’m building exposure across every layer of the drone stack including platforms, autonomy, sensors, counter-drone systems and the hardware underneath it all:
1. $AVAV (the weapon layer)
AeroVironment is the expendable weapon end of the theme since it makes Switchblade drones which are the small, cheap "kamikaze" drones that launch, hit a target, and are gone. These get used up in combat so demand scales directly with how much modern warfare leans on attritable strikes. My exposure here is to drones being fired in volume, the purest "loitering munitions get consumed" bet with a ~$1.1B Switchblade backlog.
2. $KTOS (the aircraft layer)
Kratos is the high end, big contract end of the theme since it makes attritable jet drones like the XQ-58 Valkyrie that fly alongside manned fighters as "loyal wingmen." Where AeroVironment is small, cheap and expendable, Kratos is large scale, high performance and tied to major procurement cycles. My exposure here is the premium platform layer, the multi-million-dollar systems and propulsion that ride big military budgets rather than volume munitions.
3. $ONDS (the autonomy layer)
Ondas is my autonomy and drone-infrastructure exposure since it makes the systems that let drones fly and operate on their own plus tech to detect and stop enemy drones. Where AeroVironment and Kratos are platforms, Ondas is the autonomy and counter drone infrastructure layer so my exposure here is the bet on the "drones run themselves" future, the fastest growing and most speculative leg with management raising 2026 guidance to at least $375M on drone-in-a-box and counter-UAS deployments.
4. $MRCY (the brains layer)
Mercury makes the embedded electronics that go inside drones (onboard AI processing, EO/IR payloads, electronic warfare) plus the counter-drone systems that detect and defeat hostile drones. The key difference is that it sells to many drone makers and primes so it wins regardless of which airframe comes out on top. My exposure here is the "picks and shovels" play across the whole industry with a counter drone hedge built in and it just posted record bookings of $348M (+74%) and a ~$1.6B backlog.
$BRUN is surging today.
I loaded this morning on my Asymmetrical Bets fund ($16M AUM following) on @joinautopilot with a 20% allocation at $34.50.
Shoutout @mkfilko for inspiring me with his early work on the name at $11 (3x).
Here's why I think this $2B neocloud trading only 4x a non cancelable deal with one of the top private AI companies is attractive here.
1/ The catalyst.
On May 21 $BRUN signed a service agreement with Thinking Machines Lab.
$471.7M total contract value. 5,000 NVIDIA B300 GPUs 36 month initial term non cancelable, non refundable, pay for the full term REGARDLESS of usage.
2/ Who is Thinking Machines?
Mira Murati's lab - she's the former CTO of OpenAI.
Founded Feb 2025. Raised the largest seed in history five months later. $2B at a $12B valuation led by a16z, with NVIDIA, AMD, and Cisco in the round.
Reportedly raising again now at a $50B+ valuation.
4/ What it does to the book.
$BRUN came public with $940M in long term contracted revenue.
The TM deal adds ~50% overnight. Backlog is now ~$1.41B.
Signed, non cancelable contracts now annualize to ~$470M/yr at full deployment. That is NORTH of the entire $375M FY2026 exit ARR target. The floor just moved up.
5/ Backstory on the co.
Boost Run was founded 2023, Northbrook IL. Bare metal GPU compute for training and inference.
Came public May 11 via the Willow Lane SPAC. $134.5M proceeds, ZERO redemptions.
AI enabler with $26.9M FY25 revenue, +239% YoY guiding $375M exit ARR by end of FY26 125MW across 11 data centers when fully built.
Founder/CEO Andy Karos built Blue Fire Capital across 13 data centers in 7 countries, sold it to Galaxy Digital $GLXY in 2020.
Self funded Boost Run, brought his old team, holds a big stake.
7/ The validators are filthy:
- NVIDIA Preferred Cloud + Exemplar status on Blackwell (sub 10 provider club)
- $1.44B Dell supply agreement CDW channel into 250k+ regulated accounts Fluidstack partnership,
- $127M named Michael Dell name dropped them at Dell Tech World next to $CRWV and $IREN, names 8-27x its size
8/ Now the math. Why I bought after 90%+ move in 1 month.
At ~$34, $BRUN is ~$2.1B EV.
EV / FY27 ARR ($620M midpoint) = 3.4x.
$CRWV ~3.6x $NBIS ~7-8x
It trades at CoreWeave's multiple and a quarter of Nebius, though I think it could re-rate closer to $NBIS.
$NBIS premium is about clean capital structure and real margins, not GPUs. $BRUN guides FCF positive, lets Dell finance the buildout, and runs a take or pay book. It belongs in the Nebius bucket, not the CoreWeave one.
At ~$68, EV goes to ~$4.2B.
EV / FY27 ARR = ~6.8x.
$BRUN can 2x from my buy and still be under $NBIS.
DA Davidson just bumped their PT to $45 off the deal.
10/ Risks are real. The auditor flagged going concern, the 10-Q is late, management is young, and a lot now rides on a few anchor contracts. Only a few employees currently.
But it's FCF positive guided, NVIDIA blessed, and now the compute partner to Mira Murati.
The market is pricing $BRUN like CoreWeave. I think it ends up priced like Nebius.
Other trades made in the fund.
- Brand new $NOK - 20% of fund after more bullish insider buying, telecom as critical AI infra. Research and PTs on Substack.
- Trimmed Micron to 20% of fund from 30% after 150%
- Closed $BE after 200% to make room for fresher plays
- Closed $LASR and $CRCL with single digit losses.
$AAOI $MU $NOK $BRUN $PENG
I have been saying it for a while, and I will repeat it again for all my new friends:
Uranium ( $CCJ $DNN $URA $UEC $NXE )
Nuclear ( $LEU $OKLO $NNE $SMR )
Solar ( $FSLR $TAN $SEDG $CSIQ $ARRY $TE )
Softwares ( $MSFT $IGV $PANW $CRWD $NOW $TEAM $SNOW $DDOG $DOCN )
Drones ( $UMAC $RCAT $RDW $ONDS $KTOS )
If you dont have exposure to them, start considering.
Everyone who follows me makes money by being in the right stocks at the right time.
$NVDA CEO is telling you to buy energy stocks
He is literally saying demand will 1000x
Stocks positioned to benefit:
- $CEG
- $VST
- $OKLO
- $BE
- $GEV
- $IREN
“This is the best time in the history of humanity to invest in sustainable energy”
In 2025, he was early on semis and neoclouds:
- $NBIS at $22 → +600%
- $INTC at $23 → +500%
- $SNDK at $275 → +400%
- $CRWV at $40 → +200%
- $TSM at $240 → +80%
He’s not guessing. He’s showing you the roadmap.
Are you going to ignore him again?
CEO $NVDA says to buy sustainable energy stocks.
$ENLT is the strongest with price target $400+ Its spiked $15 to $90 for 600% already.
Right now, these 16 stocks have the exact set-up:
1. $PLUG — Price: ~$3.76 | Target: $30
Green hydrogen fuel cells deliver clean, on-site backup power for AI data centers bypassing overloaded grids entirely.
2. $FLNC — Price: ~$20 | Target: $65
Grid-scale battery storage keeps renewable power stable and uninterrupted for 24/7 AI data center operations.
3. $ARRY — Price: ~$10 | Target: $40
Solar tracking systems maximize output at utility farms directly powering AI data center campuses nationwide.
4. $SHLS — Price: ~$10 | Target: $32
Electrical balance-of-system components connect large solar farms to the grid that powers AI infrastructure.
5. $RUN — Price: ~$14.00 | Target: $50
Distributed home solar and storage cuts grid strain during peak AI-driven electricity demand surges.
6. $CSIQ — Price: ~$17.87 | Target: $80
Utility-scale solar modules and grid-scale battery storage systems feed clean power into AI-hungry electrical grids.
7. $BEP — Price: ~$35 | Target: $200
Global hydro, wind, solar & nuclear operator $BE
partnered with Bloom Energy in a $5B deal to co-build AI power factories.
8. $CWEN — Price: ~$38 | Target: $120
10+ GW of contracted wind, solar & storage sells clean baseload power directly to hyperscaler data centers.
9. $JKS — Price: ~$25.00 | Target: $50
One of the world's largest solar manufacturers supplying panels to utility farms feeding the AI power grid.
10. $DQ — Price: ~$20.00 | Target: $35
Polysilicon feedstock producer enabling solar panel manufacturing that powers AI data center campus buildouts.
11. $HASI — Price: ~$42 | Target: $80
Finances solar, wind & storage projects supplying contracted clean power directly to AI data center operators.
12. $EOSE — Price: ~$8 | Target: $24
Long-duration zinc batteries solve renewable intermittency enabling always-on clean power for non-stop AI workloads.
My top 3 favorite ones to buy and hold would be $PLUG, $ENLT and $BEP since they have a deal with $BE.
BONUS, I really like $ENPH (look how beaten down it is) at $53. It could run towards $300+ again.
♻️RESHARE this post and make 1 comment for my list of sustainable energy companies under $10. There's only 5 good ones like $PLUG to choose from.
Buy these stocks heavy & come back to this post May 15 of every year for the next 5 years. 🧊
1. $CELH $29
2. $ELF $55
3. $META $616
4. $AMZN $263
5. $CAKE $58
6. $SOFI $15
$HIMS | Hims & Hers Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
𝐂𝐄𝐎 — Andrew Dudum
➤ “Within six weeks of introducing direct access to Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 products to our platform, we have fulfilled more than 125,000 shipments for Wegovy products.”
➤ “We are rapidly becoming the world’s largest consumer health platform.”
➤ “The breadth of care we can provide is becoming a real strategic advantage.”
➤ “Platforms like ours are the place pharma, biotech, and diagnostic companies are increasingly relying on to reach more people with innovative treatments and services.”
➤ “We believe our global scale will act as a force multiplier.”
➤ “We are building a health platform that delivers access to higher quality care as we expand, and that is becoming harder to replicate.”
➤ “Nine years of data, a verticalized domestic supply chain, an agile and intelligent platform, a leading global footprint, and a growing network of trusted health innovators gives us distinct advantages.”
➤ “We won’t launch access to peptides until we meet these very high standards that we believe everyone should be meeting.”
➤ “I have never been more confident that we are building the future of health.”
➤ “The demand both on the men’s and women’s side instinctively seems to be extremely large.”
➤ “We likely will not be first to market, but when we do, we’ll make sure that we feel like we’ve got everything done the right way.”
𝐂𝐅𝐎 — Yemi Okupe
➤ “We believe the pivot that we made to prioritize branded products within our weight loss specialty will be transformational for the Hims & Hers platform.”
➤ “Within weeks of this launch, we are on track to add north of 100,000 new subscribers per month within our weight loss specialty.”
➤ “Our aspiration is to become the default health and wellness platform for consumers around the world.”
➤ “Revenue grew 4% year-over-year to $608 million.”
➤ “International growth remained strong as revenue increased nearly tenfold from the first quarter to $78 million.”
➤ “We generated $89 million of cash flow from operations and $53 million of free cash flow.”
➤ “Marketing as a percentage of revenue improved three points year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter to 36% in Q1.”
➤ “Our primary financial objective will center around continuing to grow the business while ensuring that we are generating strong free cash flow.”
➤ “We expect a meaningful step-up in adjusted EBITDA dollars in the third and fourth quarters.”
➤ “Our confidence is high that we can replicate the success and similarly establish category leadership in key international markets.”
𝐂𝐓𝐎 — Mo Elshenawy
➤ “We now have nearly 40 members in our AI team, including senior AI engineers and applied scientists.”
➤ “Our tech stack is built to scale efficiently across new conditions, categories, and geographic regions.”
➤ “We currently have an AI copilot live on the provider side of the platform.”
➤ “We also recently launched Labs AI.”
➤ “Soon we will launch an AI weight loss companion that will support customers along their journey.”
➤ “We currently support tens of millions of customer touch points annually.”
➤ “We are one of the only platforms in healthcare where consumer intake and diagnosis, treatment journey, provider decisions, and eventual outcomes all live in a single stack.”
➤ “What we’re building is a platform that can continuously expand its categories of care with an intelligence layer that personalizes every step of the customer experience.”
$ANET is down 20% from its highs after a beat-and-raise quarter.
Like most I have been trying to find a company that benefits from the AI buildout that has a real MOAT, hasn’t run 1000% and is founder led with a technical team that can innovate if needed.
Arista just reported $2.71B in Q1 revenue, up 35% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.87, beating estimates by over 10%. Operating cash flow hit a record $1.69B in a single quarter. They raised full-year revenue guidance to $11.5B and lifted their AI networking target to $3.5B for the year.
The CEO called it the best demand environment she’s seen in her entire tenure at the company. She’s been there since 2008.
The stock fell 13%..
For those curious, here is what Arista actually does:
Arista builds the software and hardware that connects GPU clusters at scale. When a hyperscaler runs 50,000, 100,000, or 500,000 GPUs together, every one of them needs to talk to every other one.
It needs to be instant, reliable and without packet loss. Arista’s switches direct that traffic. Their operating system, EOS, manages it.
EOS is the real story here IMO. It runs identically across every Arista switch ever made, going back to 2008. One software image. One CLI. One automation layer. When a network engineering team at Microsoft or Meta spends years building automation scripts on top of EOS, that creates a switching cost that most companies don’t want to make. Ripping it out means retraining your entire team and rewriting years of tooling.
That’s why Arista has a 94% customer approval rating and an NPS of 89.
For years, AI clusters ran on InfiniBand ($NVDA proprietary networking protocol). It was fast but expensive, closed, and hard to scale beyond a certain cluster size. Hyperscalers started looking for an alternative.
Ethernet won. Open, scalable, battle-tested. And Arista is the dominant Ethernet switching vendor in the hyperscale data center.
A fourth major hyperscaler just completed their full migration from InfiniBand to Arista Ethernet at production scale. Every GPU cluster that makes that transition is a new Arista customer for the next decade.
Full year guidance: $11.5B in revenue. $3.5B specifically from AI networking.
Now I want to be clear the thesis isn’t just a data center switching story but that’s only the first wave.
The second wave is scale-across, connecting data centers to each other as AI inference gets distributed globally.
The third wave is scale-up, connecting GPUs within individual racks at 1.6T and eventually 3.2T speeds, emerging in 2027 and beyond.
How Arista Makes Money
Two buckets on the income statement.
Product Revenue (85% of total): Hardware switches and EOS software licenses bundled with them. When a hyperscaler orders 10,000 switches for a new AI cluster, that is product revenue. Q1 2026 product revenue was $2.31B, up 36.6% YoY. This is the high-growth, lumpy, capex-cycle-dependent part of the business.
Service Revenue (15% of total): Support contracts, software subscriptions (CloudVision), and professional services. Q1 2026 service revenue was $397.7M, up 27.3% YoY. This is the recurring, sticky, high-margin part of the business. Every switch sold creates a multi-year service tail.
Now my favorite piece is the strong management team.
Andy Bechtolsheim co-founded Sun Microsystems and was one of Google’s first investors. He co-founded Arista. Ken Duda, the CTO, has been there since the beginning. Jayshree Ullal has run the business for 18 years and built one of the most consistent execution track records in enterprise technology.
Here are the valuation metrics(based on $140 a share):
Market cap: $176B
Trailing P/E: 47x
Forward P/E: 38x
PEG: ~2x
EV/FCF: ~40x
Financials:
Gross margins: 63%
Net margin: 38%
Revenue growth: 35%
EPS growth: 34%
I will be starting a tiny position tomorrow and will learn more throughout the coming weeks.
10 WAYS TO BUILD AN AI POWER PORTFOLIO
1. $OKLO effectively building the “local nuclear plant” the AI economy will require by placing reactors directly next to data center campuses for 24/7 onsite generation.
2. $BE fuel-cell onsite power play helping data centers bypass the grid with dedicated energy for AI clusters with product backlog up 250% YoY to $6B.
3. $CEG nuclear baseload backbone of the AI era with a 20-year $MSFT PPA tied to the Three Mile Island restart to supply the 24/7 carbon-free power.
4. $VST hybrid power engine of AI combining nuclear, gas & storage with a 20-year $META agreement covering 2,600+ MW across three nuclear plants.
5. $GEV industrial supplier rebuilding the U.S. grid providing the turbines, transformers & hardware every AI-driven upgrade cycle depends on with $163B in backlog.
6. $VRT infrastructure gatekeeper for AI compute controlling the cooling & power systems that $NVDA class clusters cannot run without with Q1 backlog up 80% YoY to ~$12.5B.
7. $EOSE long-duration storage solution for a grid under strain helping utilities smooth volatility as AI demand overtakes supply.
8. $NEE clean-energy arm of the AI buildout with largest renewable development pipeline in the country positioned directly into data center load growth.
9. $LEU only U.S. source of HALEU fuel making it essential for powering the modular reactors needed around future AI campuses backed by ~3B DOE contract.
10. $UUUU secures the domestic uranium supply chain by turning nuclear fuel into a national-security asset for the AI age.
I made over a mill today. This is why me charging for a Substack makes no sense. I don’t want the pressure to always add content. I’m a simple dude. I play one banger heavy and cash in…it’s too simple to charge. That’s just my style. Some dudes are go getters and are ready to work hard for the subscription. There are many accounts worth paying money for.
@daniel_koss@DeepValueBagger@aleabitoreddit@mvcinvesting
Are all accounts I’d pay for if I was just starting out.
No doubt
👊🫡
Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI.
I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only "InP Substrate" with Sumitomo, over and over but just never made a comment.
This is wrong.
They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them.
They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates.
As seen with the Gulf, removing ~20% of a supply is catastrophic, but do that with 3-4 other chokepoints.
-> All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium).
Vital and $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies. With Western 5N and others only holding a small fractional share.
Since China (Vital, AXT) controls majority.
-> pBN Crucible chokepoints:
$AXTI is a another massive chokepoint (BoYu). there's a few other players like ShinEtsu/Morgan/etc, but this is another bottleneck in refinery layers.
InP substrates:
$AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly here, with JX, $COHR holding just a tiny percentage.
There's many other processes (eg. Red Phosphorus) here too (eg. Nippon Chemical/Rasa) in the middle.
This is a materials problem.
$COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls.
If $LITE CEO can't sleep at night because of InP substrates, $5B valuations mean nothing to the Western hyperscaler buildout stay online.
Japan is actively getting export controlled on upstream materials, while AXT holds them all captive.
So TLDR: It's not just "InP Substrates" that i see a lot of short sellers conflating.
It's all the indium, gallium -> refinery processing -> pBN Crucible that goes into the final duopoly InP substrate creation process they share with Sumitomo.
if Vital and multiple chokepoints upstream stops shipping, downstream to the Western InP substate makers.
AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly.
The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just "InP substrate creation" that even institutional analysts dont understand.