BCA Research

BCA Research is the essential source of macro insight for the world's investors. The leading independent provider of macro investment research. Founded 1949.

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

What's the biggest driver behind your AI stock view?

[Juan Correa-Ossa @ElClutch]

So far so good!

[RobertTimper @RobertTimper1]

Today's euro area CPI data offers the first look at July inflation. The m/m increase in goods prices stood out at 0.41%, it was the largest increase in 3 years.
Could be a first sign of supply chain pressures from the SoH disruptions feeding into core goods inflation globally.

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

Part I of the mind meld with Cousins @JacobShap and @mgertken and of course Uncle @PeterZeihan! This one shot live in Taos, New Mexico.

A caveat: This was shot a month ago... shouldn't really matter since we go pretty... far out.

Enjoy everyone!

https://t.co/8LzmzfRBSs

[Matt Gertken @mgertken]

Listen to this! Proud to be a part of this Fab Four, with @peterzeihan, @geo_papic, and @jacobshap … plus it is a great discussion well worth your time! https://t.co/pwLp7HQtgd

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

The wealth effect from a tech bust would be more severe than in 2000.

[Mathieu Savary @SavaryMathieu]

The yen is suddenly rebounding, in a pattern reminiscent of MoF interventions. However, remember, that those can only help the yen in the short term, traders know that Japan’s FX reserves are finite. For the yen to rally durably, the BoJ must become hawkish enough to tame inflationary pressures created by an overly accommodative monetary policy. In other words, as long as 5y/5y Japanese CPI swap rise vs RoW and 10/2 curve steepens, the yen will stay weak. We are getting closer, but we are not there yet.

[Brian Payne @AltsPayne]

Never checked the income statement. Never checked the balance sheet. Never checked the P/E. All I knew before buying #MSFT:

1. Stock was down over 30%
2. I use Microsoft every morning of my life

[Felix Vezina-Poirier @felixavp]

Not expecting that combination of headlines to last too long

[Felix Vezina-Poirier @felixavp]

I def agree we indeed don't need as much *explicit* guidance when not at ZLB, but *implicit* guidance about the reaction function still matters to avoid speculation like we're seeing today.

[Felix Vezina-Poirier @felixavp]

On the Warsh Fed's forward guidance approach... The reason the Fed was not on the front page back in the days isn't because Greenspan kept it mysterious, it's because the US economy was not as financialized as it is today.

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

BCA’s US Equity Risk Indicator is one standard deviation above its mean, which historically has signaled a major pullback in the S&P 500.

Source: @BudaghyanArthur, BCA Research, “Charts That Matter: Zoom Out. Watch The Extremes” (July 2026)

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

Lots of crow eating from the Cousins on the World Cup forecast in this one! Enjoy!

Posting four days late over here... Apologies!

https://t.co/91VWJ8K3cw

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

LLMs may be a dead end to superintelligence.

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

The AI Debate: Next internet, or next dot-com?

@PeterBerezinBCA argues the efficiency gains are exactly what kill the case for trillions in data center capex. Everyone gets the tools, nobody gets an edge.

@ElClutch argues the market has it backwards: compute supply stays tight, capex ROI beats expectations, and the rally broadens out.

Same technology. Two very different endings.

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

🇺🇸 Is the AI trade hiding in bank stocks?

Our Chief US Investment Strategist @DougPeta told @business:

📈 AI spending is exerting greater influence on activity and big-bank earnings
⚠️ But banks ride the broader business cycle, not an AI-adjacent trade

https://t.co/t8F6VVYtNx

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

What's the biggest driver behind your AI stock view?

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

Our Chief Economist @PeterBerezinBCA and Head of Portfolio Construction @ElClutch go head-to-head on the question dividing markets right now.

Peter argues that US stocks are in the midst of an earnings bubble. Every time Nvidia sells a chip or Micron sells memory, a big profit gets booked, but the buyer treats that purchase as capex, not an expense. The result is an asymmetry: no new cash flow is created, yet reported earnings keep climbing.

Juan argues that the market is underestimating how much money these companies are actually making from this capex. ROI on AI spending should surprise to the upside over the next two quarters.

The real question isn't whether AI is making money today. It's whether those profits are still there when AI spending slows.

Who do you side with: the bear or the bull?

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

🇺🇸 The Trump trade is underperforming.

Our Chief Geopolitical Strategist @mgertken told @business:

⚠️ Iran war inflation hit manufacturing & housing
📈 AI themes beat cyclicals
📉 Bets on US industry & working-class consumption suffered

https://t.co/aJOMtOefiu

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

The exact same shares of SK Hynix trade at 20% to 30% premium in the US than in Korea.

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

Bear (stretched valuations + FCF rolling over)

Capex is generating earnings while eroding cash. Hyperscalers are on pace for ~$2.5 trillion of AI assets by 2029-30; at a 20% depreciation rate, that's ~$500 billion a year in charges against roughly $400 billion of combined profit today, and free cash flow is already rolling over. Adjust the S&P 500 back to 2019 margins, and it trades at 27x forward, above the ~26.5x March 2000 peak.

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

What's the biggest driver behind your AI stock view?