Bengi Şinik

@SciencesPo @metu_odtu | Grand Strategy, Turkey, European Security, Indo-Pacific

[William Alberque @walberque]

@eeldenden SACEUR's job is theater defeat of Russian forces, not strategic defeat of Russia. Specifically, it is limited to 1) deterring any attack and 2) if attacked, to deny Russia its military objectives by defeating the forces before him, not inflicting strategic defeat on Russia. 1/2

[Auston Heffernan @AustonStachews]

It was 3-1 Roma and then Arda Guler came on. It’s now 4-3 Real Madrid.

[Pavel Podvig @russianforces]

I doubt it's what was actually said, but it's okay. The most important point here is that it's not extended deterrence that protects. It's someone saying "you cannot use nuclear weapons." It may have been China this time, but ideally someone should say the same to the US and co.

[Bengi Şinik @BengiSinik]

"An attack to a party is an attack to all" does not mean a commitment to defend a partner militarily. Such a commitment does not even exist in NATO.

[Bengi Şinik @BengiSinik]

Let's avoid hot takes. It is neither a defense pact, nor an Islamic alliance (religion is irrelevant in this context). There is no commitment to defend an attacked party militarily. Rather it is a security cooperation agreement weirdly named as a "defense agreement".

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

saudi arabia, turkey, pakistan defense pact—in effect a core islamic alliance— is a direct response to us iran war and perception the united states can’t be relied on for regional security.

(and, goes without saying, a very different direction in the region than the abraham accords)

[Bengi Şinik @BengiSinik]

Sembolik ve magazinsel olan bu anlaşmada bir ülkeye saldırılırsa diğer ülkelerin askeri olarak yardım etmesini gerektiren bir askeri yardım yükümlülüğü yok (NATO'da da yok).

Ülkeler saldırıyı kendine de yapılmış sayıp bu konuda hiçbir şey yapmayabilir zira bir yükümlülük yok.

[Selim Kuneralp @kuneralpS]

Mekke’de imzalanan anlaşmanın NATO’nun meşhur Beşinci maddesi gibi bir ülkeye yapılan saldırı diğerlerine yapılmış sayılır maddesi içerdiği açıklandı. Pakistan nedeniyle Hindistan’a, Suudi nedeniyle Husiler vasıtasıyla İran’la savaşa sürüklenme ihtimalimiz gerçekten mevcutmuş.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

“We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran”

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨⚪️⚫️ BREAKING: Leandro Trossard to Besiktas, here we go! Deal approved right now by Belgian winger.

Arsenal receive €18m plus €2m add-ons as #AFC already accepted terms last week.

Trossard will be in Istanbul tomorrow night for medical and contract signing. 🦅

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

In an interview with SACEUR Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich:

"On the Russian air and missile forces, I would say those have not been subject to the same level of attrition and attritional warfare that the Ukrainians have imposed on Russian ground forces. So, they do still have the platforms and capabilities, whether it’s bombers or fighters or ballistic missiles, et cetera. They, of course, are expending some munitions in Ukraine, but the platforms are there, and then their production for replacement ballistic missiles and cruise missiles continues. So they have considerable firepower and considerable potential in the [Russian Aerospace Forces] for capabilities. And you pair that with one-way attack drones, et cetera.

This kind of combined aerospace attack, if you will, is something that we’re going to have to be ready to counter. Russia is doing some military modernization as well and building the Su-57 [fifth-generation fighter.] They’ve got their big six weapons programs. That continued modernization maybe hasn’t continued at the pace that it was originally planned because of the war in Ukraine, but it does continue, and we’re watching it very closely."
@ByChrisGordon
https://t.co/BHPQMmt0uK

[Joseph Ledford @JosephALedford]

Advance praise is in for History's Dead-Hand Grip (Available on November 1):

“History’s Dead-Hand Grip: Politics, Statecraft, and ‘Lessons’ of the Past is an invaluable resource for policymakers and students of history. Ledford and Sargent have distilled wisdom that, if heeded, will help readers avoid blunders associated with ignorance of the past as well as the facile application of historical experience.”—H.R. McMaster

“There is an increasing recognition that history can and should play a greater role in better understanding and navigating our complex, often confusing times. Sargent and Ledford, two outstanding historians from Berkeley and Texas, respectively, have assembled a terrific group of emerging scholars to apply the lessons of the past to the consequential choices of the present. This smart, accessible, and compelling volume is an essential guide using history to improve statecraft.”—Francis J. Gavin

“An engaging demonstration of ways in which applying history can illuminate present predicaments and future probabilities—remembering the leading international historian of the past century."—Graham Allison

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

I have a new edited volume out, Geopolitics of AI. It has a great cast of contributors--@paul_scharre @deanwball @mchorowitz @JackieGSchneid Mike Beckley, Lawrence Freedman, Jim Baker, Ben Buchanan, and many others. And best of all, it's free:

https://t.co/1Yx7ZUYxIw

@AEI

[Ian Fleming Zhou, PhD @IanFlemingVIP]

In the latest episode of The Nuclear Table I seat down with Dr Tong Zhao (@zhaot2005) senior fellow @carnegienpp. We discuss China's nuclear strategy : https://t.co/2fLLv9J3KZ

[Valerii Zaluzhnyi @ZaluzhnyiUA]

We are increasingly seeing assessments by analysts, including European and now American ones, that Russia has lost the war. And the end of the war is near.

The reason for this is the direct interpretation of the events by the Ukrainian and European information space, which is full of mentions of successes on the battlefield and strikes on Russian logistics and critical infrastructure. The media focuses on tactical achievements, and this is natural.

More details about whether there are really prerequisites to expect an imminent end of the war, whether there can be winners in it, and why NATO's current approaches have no prospects – in the article https://t.co/LxY5gD4Hg4

[Bengi Şinik @BengiSinik]

@BurakKadercan Hocam hoşgeldiniz. Emma Ashford'un yeni kitabını okudunuz mu? Patrick Porter'ın yeni kitabıyla birlikte bahsettiğiniz konuda en önde geliyor.

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

Addressing air and missile defense should be the leading priority for Western countries, as Ukraine now makes much of what it needs to day to day battlefield needs, but the missile defense situation is not improving, and Ukraine remains heavily dependent on the US.

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

While Ukraine is doing well across much of the front line, on missile defense the trend is negative. Russia is using more ballistic missiles, they are getting more out of those capabilities, and the number of interceptors being provided to Ukraine is not tangibly increasing.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Zelenskyy summoned Zaluzhnyi to Kyiv and asked him: "If elections are held this autumn, will you run?"

Zaluzhnyi answered: "Yes. I will." — Ukrainska Pravda.

Zelenskyy tried to talk him out of it. He said their conflict risked dividing the country. 1/

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

I try to take a balanced look at the question of Russian military reconstitution after this war, the problems and enduring weaknesses in the force, but also how it has evolved and expanded in ways that we need to consider in future contingencies. https://t.co/J0jaZ9ViCW

[Batu @1adetbatu]

.@avusturalya .@paraguay

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring Narges Bajoghli and @vali_nasr on today’s Versailles moment for the Middle East.
https://t.co/pUqcbyp1ea