BIll Birmingham

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

̵2̵0̵2̵4̵ 2025 is going to be the year of the "supervolcano" btw

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

👀Drone Dominance scales to Micro

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@johnarnold Also amazing is that the average domestic U.S. airfare is about $370–$390 per itinerary

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@Noahpinion I believe they "emptied out" to Philly for Game 3 but they should be back later tonight

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@Mylovanov Honest question: what happened to Putin's near-death health status circa 2022? Were there any resolutions to "shaking hands" and other markers of imminent decline?

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

At first glance I thought this said that the Mets were laying off 10% of their employees which, in turn, has come home to roost on KPMG. To which I just nodded my head and said, “of course, makes total sense”

[Robert Sterling @RobertMSterling]

KPMG is laying off 10% of their audit partners. You might have missed the news amidst today’s announcement that Meta is also laying off 10% of their employees.

I’ll be blunt: If you work in front of a computer, your job isn’t safe.

It doesn’t matter how senior you are (KPMG’s partners literally own the company). Nor does it matter how good you are at your job (Meta’s engineers are among the best of the best in the tech industry).

Your job is at risk, and it’s incumbent on you—and no one but yourself—to plan for what you do in your career to proactively manage that risk.

Four reasons why this is happening:

1. Competition: AI is reducing barriers to entry across every industries, from professional services (such as the audit and advisory services provided by the likes of KPMG) to software and everything in between. Reduced barriers to entry mean increased competition, which means lower pricing power, margin compression, and pressure to reduce costs—especially fixed costs such as labor, which is the number one expense for most white-collar businesses.

2. Need to Invest: As incumbents face increased competition from new entrants to their market and from substitute products (e.g., vibe-coded homebrew SaaS replacing expensive vertical SaaS products that previously enjoyed virtual monopolies within their respective target markets), they are forced to make sizable investments in technology to remain competitive.

In the case of professional services companies, this means large investments in proprietary software (all of the Big Four firms are investing billions in new technology right now); for big tech companies, this means tens of billions of dollars going into data centers and physical infrastructure.

Essentially, capex and opex are in the middle of a zero-sum battle in corporate budgets. As companies face the need to invest more in capex and R&D—and as capital markets become increasingly averse to providing them additional liquidity to fund it, out of concerns that the ROIC on said capex will not be accretive to earnings—opex is cannibalized to fund capex. And, again, the primary lever CFOs in white-collar companies have to instantly reduce opex is layoffs.

3. Automation: These competitive pressures are compounded by AI rapidly automating work faster than incremental revenue is able to be generated. In other words, workers are being made redundant faster than companies are able to come up with the new business that might otherwise save those jobs.

Some in the tech industry (people far smarter than me, I will add) conjecture that, on a net basis, AI will create more jobs than it will destroy, due to an AI-facilitated period of hypergrowth and a corresponding boom in corporate earnings. But with every company I advise, across the worlds of startups, SMBs, and large industrial companies, I’m simply not seeing that yet, and I don’t know anyone who is.

4. It might feel like ancient history at this point, but many companies are still dealing with the excesses of the Covid-era labor market. Money was loose, talent was in short supply, and software companies, financial services firms, and professional services companies hired too many people too fast, with standards that were too low. They’ve made significantly progress in right-sizing their workforces over the past couple years (return-to-office mandates, for example, have essentially created “soft layoffs” at many large companies), but much work still remains.

If you’re picturing your career and your company as you read these words, I can’t emphasize it enough: Plan ahead. Build a network of people outside your company who would want to work with you if your current job were made redundant. Think about businesses you might want to start (it’s a lot easier to keep your job if no one but your customers can terminate you). Set money aside.

Be proactive, not reactive. Be a predator, not the prey.

Because these trends are inexorable, they’re unstoppable, and, chances are, they’re coming for all of us.

Start planning. And start planning now.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@micsolana And yet Tom Cotton was a five-alarm moral emergency for the NYT, while Hasan Piker is a fascinating cultural accessory. One got institutional panic, apology, and resignation.The other gets soft-focus anthropology.

[YIMBYLAND @YIMBYLAND]

This is not normal discourse.

We don’t have to accept this as an acceptable line of thinking. In fact, you should reject it with every fiber in your being.

These people hate normal Americans and the social norms that make our lives enjoyable and safe.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@nikitabier @grok is this $1 billion in volume just the exclusive amount executed in Canada given it's the only place where people can actually trade through Cashtags on X?

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Japan's Sakurajima volcano has erupted.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@feelsdesperate https://t.co/TsYB0662mU

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

Don’t mind the football stadium venue but the bench should be on the court

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@wokal_distance @Selkis_2028 This archetype has always been there. She is Dickins’s Mrs. Jellyby, deeply committed to the Borrioboola-Gha.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

Strange days

[Dailyscienceinfo @NatureScienceA1]

Rare planetary alignment of Saturn, Mars, Venus, and Jupiter above the Sydney Opera House.
📸 Prasun Agrawal

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@AutismCapital Why is there a still a TIME magazine?

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@zerobeta Copilot is Cardano

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@tylercowen Very Straussian: vague enough for plausible deniability, specific enough to signal the in-group. ‘Turning point’ plants the frame, ‘somewhat arbitrary’ provides the escape hatch. It’s a wink + coordination device.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@InfiniteL88ps @danwwang Metro North follows bizarre Moores Law where the trains get 1 minute slower and tickets 5% more expensive every 24 months

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

Sonego v. Schoolkate. 5 hour battle to a 5th set tiebreak. Nighttime outer court round 1 standing room only crowd. Peak US Open. Just the best.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

@christopherrufo @avidseries This is amusing but this is also the same magazine that took a decade to write off their Soviet sympathies in the 30's as mere cosmopolitan curiosity. You'll know you won in 2035 when they publish a balanced critique by Coleman Hughes.

[BIll Birmingham @Bill_0x]

Professional liability insurance (e&o) for AI services - who, if anyone, is leading?