Biotech Investor

ex-doc, L/S HF PM, not investment advice

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

$KOD data is true home run. Vabysmo is on a ~$6B runrate with ~12Wk durability in the real world, reformulated tarco shows it can push 6M. There will be some regulatory questions to work through, but no doubt $KOD should be a $10B+ stock.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

This is a key point. PDR progression and vitreous hemorrhage could simply be due to lack of VEGF from $MRK molecule - we see these AEs in higher rates from sham in past DME trials. $SRZN asset may bypass this issue given its aVEGF component.

[AnotherBioInvestor @AnotherBio]

@plainyogurt21 Probably still +ve for $SRZN? We now know MoA works, AEs are either from wnt or from absence of VEGF and if it is the latter, 8141 is (in theory?) the correct approach?

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

$MRK's WNT with positive Ph3 data in DME. This is significant as its the first non-VEGF MONOTHERAPY to show success in retina, after steroids. Nice readthrough for $SRZN as its next up with a VEGF/WNT bispecific.

https://t.co/c41sIjvIew

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Would $MRK be hiring a US sales leader if they knew that Brunello failed? Data is scheduled to be presented next month at AAO, seems very bullish for $SRZN

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Would $MRK be hiring a US sales leader if they knew that Brunello failed? Data is scheduled to be presented next month at AAO, seems very bullish for $SRZN

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

@danobrien__ Unfortunately, #XENE's cash only takes them ~1Yr post launch. It doesn't help that FOS launches are notoriously slow, so they are highly dependent on another capital raise. Ph3 MDD could have been a catalyst to raise on, but thats not so clear now.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Very true

[deathTouch @deathtouch2k]

One of the harder aspects about equities investing (and biotech, in particular), in my opinion, isn't figuring out what truth is or where the stock will gravitate towards eventually, but rather all the potential irrational buying/selling pressure (and timing thereof) that will materialize while it gets there and how to manage the risk of such positions in the interim.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

This piece does a great job highlighting the brokenness and hope in the Rasonque launch $RVMD https://t.co/HuAAVl33Dg via @statnews

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Another day, another short squeeze $MRNA $RXRX $NTLA $FDMT

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

@seedy19tron @YGOUCHA @seedy19tron what do you think $KOD needs to show with DAYBREAK for the stock to go up? Seems like a positive trial is all but certain given the company's tight rescue criteria, but this also makes it difficult to differente on durability vs market leaders (Eylea HD/ Vabysmo).

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

We agree that $JNJ needs to act quickly. Our view is that $GHRS is the most likely candidate - they have the shortest clinic time (less than Spravato's 2hrs and much less than 6-8hrs for $CMPS $DFTX) and decent durability in MDD.

Sure, $CMPS and $DFTX are ahead, but we're worried about sales ramp/lead before $GHRS $LLY $HELP come to the market.

From past experience, asking clinics to adjust is a difficult proposition, unless there is a major $$$ incentive to do so.

$DFTX makes sense if you believe in GAD opportunity, but from our doc checks, the overlap of GAD and MDD is too large.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Is it odd that $ASND hasn't announced date for earnings yet? 🤔 They usually PR a week in advance and we are well into earnings.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Unfortunately not. Zeus was the key catalyst for $BIOA this year since it derisks their own outcomes trial. YE biomarker data would have been incremental.

I could be wrong about PoS, but the $BIOA story has fundamentally changed post Zeus failure, and this means you won't have funds lining up at the door to back an outcomes trial.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

Not sure if colchicine data derisks this story, $BIOA will need outcomes data from NLRP3/IL-1 to rerate.

Perhaps someone is willing to finance $BIOA towards that outcomes trial, but its a long road to get there, PoS is shaky, and the stock will take a major dilution hit along the way.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

$ABVX surprised to see % expecting no buyout. I’m expecting a buyout in 4Q26, we shall see.

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

What will happen to $ABVX?

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

What will happen to $ABVX?

[Biotech Investor @BioInvest_MD]

@Investorclimber @jfais20 Agree.