Hello to all my followers on this account, this account was locked back in November and now it’s opened again. However, I have made a new account since @SnowbieWx which I mainly use now and I won’t be using this account much. So if you want to keep up to date, follow that account
Hello to all my followers on this account, this account was locked back in November and now it’s opened again. However, I have made a new account since @SnowbieWx which I mainly use now and I won’t be using this account much. So if you want to keep up to date, follow that account
Hello to all my followers on this account, this account was locked back in November and now it’s opened again. However, I have made a new account since @SnowbieWx which I mainly use now and I won’t be using this account much. So if you want to keep up to date, follow that account
Hello to all my followers on this account, this account was locked back in November and now it’s opened again. However, I have made a new account since @SnowbieWx which I mainly use now and I won’t be using this account much. So if you want to keep up to date, follow that account
Well here are my final Winter 2018-19 analogues, please remain calm and don't go bananas! They're only analogues and will provide a basis for my forecast this Tuesday along with other various things.
@kjp48604688 Usually in Winter,
Positive NAO (low pressure to the north, high pressure to the south) = mild, wet and windy
Negative NAO (high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south) = cold and dry, cold and wet or cold and snowy
The NAO signals are split in FI too though there is a slightly more favoured cluster for -NAO. Note the word slightly as it would be only -NAO just below neutral. A few ensembles going for positive NAO but outliers... for now.
Will it go positive or stay negative?
The monthly NAO index will be negative for November - after a record stretch of the positive phase. Looking at past years with summer +NAO and Nov -NAO, only 3 of 16 had +MEI in Oct-Nov, i.e. this transition is unusual during El Niño.
The 3 analog years are 1965, 1990, and 2002. Of these, 1990 was easily the most similar in the Pacific, with a Modoki El Niño and a warm North Pacific. The NAO ended up positive for Dec-Feb, although Feb 1991 was cold in Europe.