China banned $BTC mining in 2021.
Hashrate collapsed roughly 68%.
Bitcoin did not stop.
On July 3, the network automatically cut mining difficulty by 27.94%.
Miners relocated.
Hash rate fully recovered within six months and reached a new all-time high within eight.
The lesson was not that Bitcoin became decentralized.
It proved Bitcoin does not care where the hash lives.
Bitcoin survives because no miner is irreplaceable.
That is antifragility.
Today we're announcing the Bitcoin Security Consortium @BTCconsortium: a group of leading financial institutions and Bitcoin companies supporting the long-term security of the Bitcoin network.
Members have pledged $15 million toward this work over the next three years.
BREAKING: 🇰🇿 KAZAKHSTAN GOVERNMENT JUST ANNOUNCED IT WILL ALLOW MINERS TO DONATE #BITCOIN TO ITS NATIONAL STRATEGIC RESERVE
ALL MINERS WHO CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRATEGIC RESERVE WILL RECEIVE DISCOUNTED ELECTRICITY
GOVERNMENTS ARE ACCUMULATING BTC IN WAYS ONCE THOUGHT IMPOSSIBLE
THE GAME THEORY IS PLAYING OUT GLOBALLY 🔥
one of the craziest things i’ve read in uhhhh…. *checks notes* 3 days. welcome to the singularity i guess
07/21/26 — Codex escapes eval and attacks Hugging Face
07/20/26 — Jacobian counterexample
05/20/26 — Unit-distance conjecture
04/14/26 — Erdős #1196 primitive sets
04/07/26 — Glasswing finds tons of zero-days
dropping a list of providers i would use to build a neobank:
@dakota_xyz
- they issue virtual accounts for on/off ramps, ACH, and wires. you can also launch your own stablecoin and earn float on AUM.
@blend_money
- they offer a yield API that aggregates top protocols like Aave, Morpho, Pendle, etc. they abstract away the compliance and tech. pricing starts at $0.10 per user per month.
@tryPortola
- they’ve built the first ever credit as an API allowing any neobank to embed lending into its app. users can take out loans directly, while the neobank earns revenue from originated loans.
@privy_io
- this one’s a classic. privy has one of the best embedded wallet products on the market, and many of the top neobanks build on it. nothing more needs to be said.
@moonpay
- also an OG in the space. they offer a wide range of products for neobanks, so if you’re building one, it’s worth talking to their team. odds are they already have what you’re looking for.
@raincards
- the best card issuer in the game. they power the 95% of Visa crypto card spend. A class team. A class product.
@relate_studio
- not necessarily a tech vendor, but they create some of the best launch videos for neobanks. they’ve worked with Jupiter among many of other names in the space.
@glider__
- i had a call with their CEO @BrianInCrypto, who walked me through their API. it lets you embed investment strategies and portfolios (like the Mag 7) directly into your app. think of it as an invest product rather than a yield product.
i know most of these teams on a personal basis. If you need a warm intro to any of them, feel free to DM me.
any other providers i missed?
$BTC: Report of the Century:
Today I am making one of the biggest announcements since I sold the top in September 2025. I am taking profit on every single crypto short. The Bitcoin short built between $115,000 and $125,000 is closed now with a gigantic gain. The $80,500 short, built between $79,000 and $82,000, is closed with another massive profit. The 100+ altcoin shorts I opened over the last several months are also closed, locking in another enormous win on top. The time of drinking tea is over. Congratulations to everyone who ignored the noise, trusted the framework and followed me from September 2025 until today.
Buying Bitcoin Spot:
For the first time since September 2025, I am buying Bitcoin spot again. Today, I entered at $64,000 for the absolute long term. For the first time since 9 Months I am buying Bitcoin for the long term! It is the beginning of a structured accumulation strategy, and I will execute it with the same discipline that allowed me to sell the top.
The Accumulation Strategy
Everyone who followed my strategy at $115,000–$125,000 remembers exactly how it worked. Every day Bitcoin traded inside that zone, I sold 10% of my spot position and added shorts. I did not care whether BTC was at $116,000, $120,000 or $124,000. Now I am doing the exact same thing in reverse. Every day Bitcoin remains between $54,000 and $64,000, I will buy 5% of my allocated capital in spot Bitcoin. Not 10% this time, but 5%, because I want to spread the accumulation across a wider period! If Bitcoin stays at $62,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it drops to $56,000, I buy. If it wicks into $54,000, I become more aggressive. If it returns to $64,000, I still buy. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this zone of 54-64k I am buying every day with 5% of my entire capital limited to 20 days.
The Technical Zone and Sentiment Shift
The legendary weekly MA200 sits in this region and is now being tested from below. Bitcoin already reached the lower section of this area last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also aligns with it. More importantly, sentiment has completely flipped. And I need to say, there are more bears, much more bears than bulls outside, and I dislike being one of many. The same people who were screaming for $150,000 at the top are now desperately waiting for $40,000. X is flooded with targets of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000 and $38,000. Retail is once again standing on one side of the boat, convinced the market owes them the perfect entry.
Front-Running the Herd
Since I announced the 50-40k region as my deeper bear-market target, most of crypto X has copied the same narrative. They copied everything, The market is not blind. The market knows retail is sitting in cash waiting below $50,000. They know people are terrified to buy at $64,000 because they have convinced themselves they will receive Bitcoin at $40,000. I am not going to stand behind the herd and beg the market for the same price as everyone else. I am front-running them. And the next that is following is also going to increase the price and so on, and the chain will be continued and those who are waiting for lower can stay there waiting forever.
Just because the four-year cycle worked at the top does not mean it will work at the bottom. Right now, everyone is waiting for September or October as if the market has already programmed the bottom into the calendar. Do you understand how insane that is? Ask anyone when they plan to buy and they will tell you September or October. Ask them why and they will repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. That is the 1+1 herd behavior. What if the real cycle is not exactly four years? What if it is three years and nine or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the date the entire crowd is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are waiting, and everyone is using the same indicator to justify the same timing. That alone shold cause panic to all waiting for the 4 years cycle to happen. Markets do not reward the masses for memorizing a calendar. I am betting against the four-year-cycle bottom. It is not happening. The bottom comes earlier.
The Structural Shift Around Bitcoin
The deeper reason for the change is not technical. It is structural. The environment around Bitcoin is shifting at a speed most people still do not understand. Regulatory clarity, tokenization infrastructure and institutional adoption are all moving forward at the same time, and the legal framework being built right now has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars of institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines or parked in the stock market waiting for certainty. Combine that with Coinbase's institutional buildout and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, and we are no longer looking at the same Bitcoin market that existed six months ago. The CLARITY Act could go through on August 10 depending on the Senate, and that is not a small event. There is a reason the entire world is now racing to regulate crypto with full speed.
BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange are already inside the DTCC live tokenization pilot. Microsoft shares, SPY, QQQ and US Treasuries are being tested as tokenized securities right now, with the official launch planned for October. Stocks, ETFs and Treasuries are moving on-chain, and the largest institutions in the world are adopting blockchain rails while retail is still debating whether the bear market is over. On top of that, Citadel just invested $400 million directly into https://t.co/R0aEy9w9Rx at a $20 billion valuation. The biggest players are deploying capital now, at scale, before the crowd understands what is happening. The infrastructure is being built directly in front of everyone, and I move my capital when the biggest capital in the world starts moving, not after
In Regards of the Stock Market Crash:
I am keeping every single SP500 short open. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same trade, and they are not at the same point in their cycle. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and continued for nine months while the stock market refused to fall. Bitcoin dropped 52% from 125k to 60k. In the same window the SP500 made new all-time highs. Crypto has already been repriced while stocks remain over valued. Therefore there is a very high probability that the Crypto Market will benefit from a Stock Market crash, as profits will move from over valued assets into under valued assets, and in times of Tokenization Hype, Stablecoin talk and the Clarity Act, these funds will very likely move into the Crypto Market.
One More Thing: I called 40-50k as the target and I was clear about it, I called 60k when Bitcoin was at 120k, and at 60k I said 40-50k is coming, But when the entire crowd on X starts waiting for the exact same level, the market almost never delivers it. Six months ago nobody was calling for sub-50k. Today every single account is. That is exactly when the target gets taken off the table. I now believe we will not see 40-50k at all this cycle. The setup that would have delivered that level is dissolving in front of the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the biggest capital in the world moving in. Changing my view when the facts change is what a good trader should do. It is exactly why I made massive profits shorting from 120k, and it is why I am accumulating now while others are still waiting for a bottom that will not come the way they want it.
That is why I am buying now. The crowd has become aggressively bearish and the conditions required for a much deeper collapse are beginning to weaken in front of the regulatory and tokenization revolution. I would rather begin building a position before the crowd understands the shift than chase Bitcoin after confirmation at much higher prices. Buy earlier before the mass starts to understand.
1/ Today, more than 140 companies, most of which compete fiercely with one another, agreed to back the same stablecoin. The vehicle is @openstandard, a new and deliberately independent company launching Open USD, or OUSD, and positioning it not as anyone’s product but as neutral infrastructure for payments, trading and the internet economy.
🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING
The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs.
But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening.
Semiconductor stocks are now worth $13.4T.
That’s 19.7% of the entire S&P 500.
4x growth in just five years.
And all of that growth depends on one trade: AI.
Numbers do not lie:
- AI chips generate 50% of all semiconductor revenue
- They represent less than 0.2% of total chip shipments
- A small group of companies is carrying the entire market
Nvidia. Broadcom. TSMC.
The same companies every major institution already owns.
Here’s how the bubble feeds itself:
- Big players fund each other
- Partnerships create paper revenue
- Money circulates inside the same system
We have seen this before:
2000:
- A few tech companies carried the entire market
- Massive valuations
- Narratives driving everything
Then reality hit. The S&P 500 collapsed 50%.
Now we’re watching the same cycle again.
Less than 0.2% of chip volumes are now holding up trillions in market value.
And one cut in AI spending is all it takes to break the entire market.
Remember, I’ve predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the exact Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
For me there are 4 people I listen to carefully in this #bitcoin environment, especially during a harsh bear market with so much noise around. They are:
1/ @DylanLeClair
2/ @_Checkmatey_
3/ @timevalueofbtc
4/ @thebtcpharaoh
Finding the right info and "anchors" to take decisions is key!
All the rest is either noise or entertainment 🍿
Thank you to those 4 for keeping the bearings clear! 🧭
🚨 S&P 500 IS FOLLOWING A 100-YEAR-OLD PATTERN
Most of you have never seen this chart.
Livermore called it the "speculative chart with a widening mouth", a pattern that becomes more chaotic as it approaches a major top.
The structure has 14 stages.
Right now, S&P 500 appears to be sitting around Step 6.
That's important because this is where distribution tends to happen while most participants are still convinced the uptrend is healthy.
If the pattern continues, the roadmap looks like this:
→ Sharp pullback
→ Relief bounce
→ One final push to new highs
→ Major breakdown phase
This setup has appeared around multiple historic market tops.
I'm not assuming this time will be different.
If you've followed my market updates, you already know why I turned cautious on $SPX.
The next updates will be even more important as this structure develops.
Turn on notifications.
I’ve never seen this many “crypto is over” posts in my life.
Everyone forgot about 4 year cycles - which only makes me more confident that cycles still work.
Just buy BTC in Sep-Oct at $40k and hold it for 3 years until $240k+.
It’s really that simple.
"$MSTR trades below its Bitcoin." Cool. Do the math.
Buy the whole company: $37.3B.
Sell BTC to clear the debt and preferreds: ~$22B.
What's left: ~$31B in raw Bitcoin.
You just paid $37B for $31B of net BTC. That's a 20% premium.
Gross mNAV says "discount." The equity's claim says "premium."
The leverage sits right in front of you, but most can't see it.
Issuing stock here to buy Bitcoin isn't dilutive. It's accretive.
That's the entire machine.
The panicans can't read a balance sheet.
When Bitcoin doubles, none of this noise matters.
You either understand the thesis or you don't.
Everything else is just execution.
Everything is going exactly as I told you.
Now Bitcoin is sitting at the level where bull traps end.
$59K → $65K → $62K → $55K → $47K → $200K
Next stops:
→ Dump to $55K (happening)
→ Market cycle bottom at $47K (next)
Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.