Chip

Former Investment Analyst. Stock trader.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@Ericweb33 @LeifInvests I suspect the CFO was brought in for just a fixed term before the IPO and he is leaving.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@LeifInvests Disagree. The entire AI infrastructure space including GE Vernova, Vertiv are displaying a clear H&S break-down. We are in for a substantial reduction in AI capex and these stocks can drop by 30% from here. Funnily, reduction in AI capex is likely to drive QQQ higher.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@arunvenk From 29 Picograms to Nanograms - yes 10x. Required enriched mercury - not regular mercury. Requires enormous power. Radioactive gold.

There is a bigger risk of quantum computing disrupting bitcoin as store of value yet bitcoin soars every day!

[Marathon Fusion @MarathonFusion]

Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.

Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.

Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@EdgeCGroup @otigart I thought ASTS had net selling?

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

My notification is filled with these.

Let me be clear. I don’t have enough time to undertake all the analyses I need to trade.

If someone has so much time to explain their “level”s to others, they are clearly focused on the monthly subscription than the trade. Quacks!

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@CompoundingLab @BaronTaylor @grok Credit where it is due. You have realised your fair value on FICO. Congratulations.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@PaulBPrager What is the levered equity IRR of your projects?

[Paul Prager @PaulBPrager]

$WULF is NOT a neocloud. $WULF IS an energy infrastructure company. We match long term investment grade energy supply with long term HPC/AI off-take. We finance our projects competitively because our contracts require our customers to be investment grade or bring investment grade credit support. We raised capital last spring opportunistically and maintain a fortress balance sheet. Our team has built large scale energy infrastructure for 25 years. Lake Mariner is delivering CB-4 this quarter and CB -5 in the first quarter ‘27. No surprises coming. We projected a range of 8-10 million per MW. We are squarely in the middle of that range. We are all about execution. Project Justified in Kentucky is a world-class project. We already have the required equity and we have an investment grade backstop committed. We execute and have predictable cash flow. Markets are pretty wild right now but we fervently believe price action will catch up to shareholder value. Demand for our product is robust and real. Certainly we have to remain diligent and execute like there’s no tomorrow. We will. But knowing what we have in the ground, in contract, the investment grade credits behind our contracts and the team’s execution history and capabilities- we sleep at night. You can too.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@techfund1 The key question is will Anthropic and OpenAI be able to maintain their revenue despite usage growing rapidly. Esp. in the context of open wight model improvements like Deepseek's latest iteration last week. Both will have to do a 50% down round to survive.

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@saxena_puru My analysis suggests that all tiers of debt are likely to be safe. The issue was CoreWeave was valued like an AI growth stock when it should have been valued like a utility or real estate stock. May be trading at 2x its fair value even today?
https://t.co/LdIW9OzfTU

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@grok @BrianWallerr @zerohedge So Mark Wilson is advocating not to sell?

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@HansCashFlow And the market has been valuing them like a high growth tech company while they are just a utility company with cascading projects, making it appear like high growth tech. With so much dolution, shareholders are toast!

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@HansCashFlow The equipment life is 8 years at best. May be 6-7 in practice. The equity IRR could be a modest 12-15% if carefully managed. At best, they are a utility company. But they have been behaving like a tech company and not carefully managing expenses. Non-cash SBC is humungous. (5/n)

[Chip @Chiptrader2]

@CKCapitalxx I frankly think anyone who pays to research someone else’s substack should not be investing at all. If the author of the substack was really good he would be looking at earning through his investments and not through subscriptions! 😂

[Everett Stern @EverettStern1]

Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent,

My name is Everett Stern. In 2010 I was a compliance officer at @HSBC. From a back office in New Castle, Delaware, I watched billions of dollars move to drug cartels, sanctioned regimes, and terrorist organizations. The enemies of the United States. I documented it, I escalated it, and when the bank would not act, I took it to the @FBI, the @CIA, and eventually the @SECGov.

The result was a $1.92 billion settlement. At the time, it was one of the largest in American history. It was also about five weeks of the bank’s profit. Not one banker was charged. Not one went to prison.

I paid a different price. I lost my career, my savings, and my place in the industry I had trained for. I was blacklisted. Every door in American finance closed at once. I slept on a camping cot in a 300 square foot apartment because I could not afford a bed, and I waited tables at @PFChangs to eat. I tell you this not for sympathy, but so you understand that I know exactly what it costs to do the right thing in American finance, and exactly how little the system does in return.

I made that sacrifice because I believed it would change something.

Yesterday, your department fined @BankofAmerica $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions, some of it tied by your own findings to Chinese laundering networks, narcotics, and the southwest border, alongside 475 apparent sanctions violations touching Russia, Iran, and global terrorism. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act.

Fourteen years after HSBC. A bank with “America” in its name. And once again, not one individual charged.

Secretary Bessent, I want to say plainly what I believe you already know. The fines are not working.

A fine is paid by shareholders, absorbed by the balance sheet, and forgotten by the next earnings call. Bank of America reported earnings this morning. Nobody who set the alert thresholds, nobody who decided the 2024 cease and desist could wait, nobody who chose the backlog over the law will lose a single thing they value. Their lives are untouched. That is the entire reason the behavior repeats.

This is money laundering. This is blood money. Money that reaches a cartel buys fentanyl that kills Americans. Money that reaches a terrorist organization buys the next attack. This country has fought a war on drugs and a war on terror for decades, at enormous cost in lives and treasure, and all the while we have allowed the financing to flow through institutions we charter and regulate. Cut off the money and we win. We have never seriously tried.

There is also a question of equal justice that I cannot let go.

Before I walked into the FBI building to report HSBC, I stopped in front of the Great Seal on the wall and read the words engraved beneath it: “Justice is the defense of our liberty.” I believed that. I still want to. But every day in this country, people go to prison for crimes that are nothing next to moving money for the people who want Americans dead. A suit, a title, and a corporate badge should not be a shield from the consequences that apply to everyone else. If a street dealer goes to prison for what he sells, the banker who moved the cartel’s money should be standing next to him.

I also want to raise something that is rarely said in these conversations. Why has no one inside Bank of America come forward the way I did? The answer is that everyone in American banking knows what happened to me, and to the whistleblowers who came after. The last person who spoke up is the only policy anyone believes. That is a culture problem, and it starts with leadership, in the banks and in the agencies that regulate them.

This is not a political issue. It has spanned administrations of both parties. It is a national security issue, and I am asking you to treat it as one.

Three things would change the math overnight.

Refer individuals for criminal prosecution. Not the analyst in the queue. The executives who set the thresholds and chose the risk. One banker in handcuffs would do more than every fine in Treasury’s history combined.

End “too big to jail.” An institution cannot be too big to fail and too big to jail at the same time. If it is the first, it must be held to a higher standard, not a lower one.

And if Bank of America will not act as America’s bank, review its charter. A national charter is a privilege granted on behalf of the American people. It should be conditioned on not moving money for the people trying to kill them.

Secretary Bessent, you said yesterday that these actions send a clear message that even the biggest institutions are not above the law. With respect, the institution was never the problem. The people inside it are above the law, and they know it. Until that changes, I will keep writing letters like this one, and the next bank will keep paying the next fine.

I gave up everything I had to stop this. I am asking you to use the power you have to finish it.

Respectfully,

Everett A. Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit