Rik

Investor

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

Complete misread. The roic is way to sensitive a number right now because of negotiations with customers and more to the point suppliers. They do not want to admit to massive margins but theres signs, and they are pretty obvious.

[Evergreen @evrgn11112231]

there’s gotta be a better way to answer this question

just give a min hurdle rate for capital allocation decisions and a realistic range of expectations with puts and takes for low and high

$GOOGL
$META
$AMZN
$MSFT

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

Why do people do this. Such confidence and its completely wrong.

Even though google managed to eat in to the backlog by increasing growth to a massive 82%, its backlog still grew by 70 billion in the quarter. The speed of the buildout is whats unlocking the backlog.

[M Mohan @mukund]

I don’t think many commentators have mentioned this yet.
$GOOGL is showing phenomenal growth on cloud thanks to @AnthropicAI

That’s it.

It’s not Gemini. It’s not their 100 other bets on Antigravity, nano banana anything else.

And the markets betting this Anthropic growth is unsustainable

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@StanFastic @MaxAnderson @matt_barrie And nobodys coming for that market anyway for obvious reasons. Why as a loss making start up would you try bounce into googles back yard and get your arse kicked given all the ai opportunities out there. Fighting with the 900lb gorilla is pretty dumb.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@StanFastic @MaxAnderson @matt_barrie And absolutely nobody does this. People like to search for products. Its a feature not a bug. And even if you do this, your still going to google after you find the product to see who has it at the best price and fastest shipping.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

The narrative always follows price. Its wild to watch. Meanwhile Google is selling for 17x 2028 earnings. Its a layup.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

If you are an investor, why are you asking the market as to whether you should invest or not 😂.

Literally unbelievable, doesnt matter how many times we do this, human nature never changes does it.

[Rene Sellmann @ReneSellmann]

If Alphabet $GOOG opens down almost 4% today, as implied, I think this is pretty bearish for Google's stock.

If a stock stops making new highs based after good news, and $GOOG posted an absolutely stunning quarter in my view, it signals that there's more downside than upside from current levels (in my view; and I could of course be wrong!).

From my perception change framework:

"Selling after parabolic moves is not about calling the top. It’s about acknowledging that perception has likely moved FAR ahead of fundamentals."

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@MaxAnderson @matt_barrie I dont think this is true for the most part. Maybe some edge cases. People go to buy something they dont do it on LLMs even if theyve done some research there.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@weary_centurion @Kaizen_Investor .. google has the data. They have visibility and are building out i to a backlog a business that is operating at 35% margins 😂. Cloud grew at 82% and still put on 70 billion of backlog. What more do you want? Lol

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@weary_centurion @Kaizen_Investor As for the capex, the only risk is too big exposure to loss making business like anthropic but otherwise they whole point in investing is to find companies that can put out huge amounts of dollars at high returns. But the thing you are misssing in all of this..

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

"Not financial advice" surely, surley these people dont manage money.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

It doesnt matter how many times you see it, poor investers will never stop having peice action dictate their views. Amazes me every time. "Search growth slowing " 😂 20 years old business doing 250 billion in business and growing at 17%.

[Weary Centurion @weary_centurion]

Let’s see shall we;

1. First negative FCF quarter, a trend which looks set to continue

2. Dilution for the purposes of fund raising as opposed to a long history of buybacks

3. Loading $56B of debt so far this year onto the balance sheet

4. More rampant capex inbound with no end in sight

5. Adjusted EPS miss

6. Google search showing signs of disruption/loss of competitive edge, growth is slowing

$GOOG along with the other hyperscalers are playing a dangerous game

It’s a gamble at this point based on perceived ROIC in relation to AI

I don’t understand why the market reaction is such a shock when the fundamentals of these companies is shifting in real time from equity compounding to aggressive cash burning

I don’t own any position in Google and this is not financial advice

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

Monetisable search isnt leaving Google. Search is increasing across the board but what is being sesrched on ai is not the monetisable search you do on google in the most part.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

I dont get why people dont understand this.

Nobody is using AI to buy stuff. If you want a watch or a holiday or a pair of shoes or a lawyer you may do some research on AI but then your going to buy and compare pricing through google every single time.

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

Anecdotal survey required- when was the last time you used Google search for…anything?

Just speaking personally. I’m 100% AI, on literally everything that would have gone to Google search, say six months ago. Surely many others similar

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

This is such an odd thing to say. The margins on cloud this quarter were 36%. Visability of a backlog of 540 billion dollars of business. What are we even talking about here?

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

How does any of this ever possibly pay off?

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@firstadopter No, they are signaling to the market they see the delay is a temporary issue and are confident about future progress. Its not rocket science if you dont look through an anti-google lens.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@firstadopter What youve written is a waste of internet space.

"Googles competative moats are built on quicksand" 😂. Meanwhile; he believes the economic value if ai is going to drop to the chip makers. Delusional. Literally delusional.

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

@Raudenbusch1 @Alexgmgm Why people talk to Americans about sport or virtually anything is beyond. Always the same. Anericans have no cultiral understanding of refinement or nuance at all. None. Grown men talking about sport being 'faggy' in a country that loves golf. 😂

[Rik @CircleOfComp]

Rich Dad Poor Dad is the best way to filter recomended reading lists or anyone talking about books or investingz Anyone or anywhere you find it, unfollow, dont waste your time. Absolute garbage

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

I consider 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' one of the best investing books of all time, and it's one of the first ones I gave my kids. But predicting what the market is going to do is a loser's game, even for Robert Kiyosaki.

The S&P 500 is now up 52% since Robert Kiyosaki said “I told you so” in April 2025, claiming the “biggest stock market crash in history” had “arrived” and we were “more than likely in a Depression.” Market timing does not work.