Alejandro

Oracle @Kalshi Trading. Will probably also post about baseball, basketball, urbanism, and whatever else I feel like. Spies Win.

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

what

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@bernardbulletin Killer stuff, I was pretty with consensus on this one, felt like Lasher was more of a lock.

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@BrettSiegelNBA Bro couldn’t wait 1 minute to get his facts straight

[Timothée Chalamet @RealChalamet]

KALSHI

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@GaetenD @lolsooj @ifthebootfitz Dem Y might be getting cheap even lol

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@GaetenD @lolsooj @ifthebootfitz Saw this post yesterday and was pretty skeptical the overpay was worth it, looks amazing now! Kudos!

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

Bucks were in crisis, should’ve been in the gym brother

[TBPN @tbpn]

During the NBA season, @kylekuzma says he spends hours after practice studying startups and venture capital.

"As soon as I get home, from 3-7pm, I'm in my office studying to understand different landscapes, because every sector is different."

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@BirdAppKJ Wdym I thought the Grimes endorsement locked it up for him

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@GaetenD Taylor way too high, no respect for Olivia smh, C tier I have to be honest are mostly skips

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@datadashboards The good metric is just fees. In this situation, taker pays fees on the parlay, and someone pays a fee to hedge out the parlay quoter. But also, lol at the idea that parlay quoters are trying to stay delta neutral

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@PredMTrader Your reason to dislike is true in terms of opportunity cost but it’s also an additional signal that he’s overpriced. With 10x the open interest, sharps are charging a premium to hold right now.

[Zub @ZubbyBadger]

I always think it’s funny when one of these random people complain about Kalshi Trading and then the response from the Kalshi echo chamber is basically OMG THEY’RE ABSOLUTE TRASH AT TRADING WHAT A BUNCH OF LOSERS!!!

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@bernardbulletin Another 900k buy just now

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@HiveLiveHQ @MickBransfield Nasdaq private markets is near meaningless

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@Livelongandpr18 @earlyvotedata Public polls will get better too. Pollsters need a way to prove their merit that is visible, Nate silver makes a lot of money publishing top line numbers as marketing while paywalling the actual models, and his models aren’t even that good

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@Livelongandpr18 @earlyvotedata This isn’t true. High quality polling is more valuable than ever and I suspect many many new firms will try to create better polling methods to license to market makers and traders

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@locksy All time clip lmaoooooo

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@DustinGouker It's still open as a market! You can trade on it. I learned a lot this morning about the California-Quebec cap and trade auction

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@PredMTrader @Foster @catboyautist QUESTION: How do you think about your time as a resource, and do you see yourself shifting towards more automation/longer term stuff as opposed to 24/7 grinding?

[Alejandro @CowboyMoth]

@datadashboards @kalshidata Isn’t Dratkings Predict also CME?