@JerryEngelmann I have developed approximate error curves for BPM, but I haven't done it directly. Relatedly, BPM is supposed to just be explanatory, not predictive, so that means player shooting luck would be outside of BPM's standard error. I'll post what I have thus far at APBRmetrics soon.
@LeGoat03824702@NBACouchside The question is how to carefully and logically include some of this non-linear impact while doing so in a robust way that can handle outliers and other contexts. BPM 2.0 was a lot better than 1.0 but there were still some holes in the robustness.
@LeGoat03824702@NBACouchside I only log into Twitter once a year or so, please add comments at apbrmetrics...
But yes, I understand. You are correct that positions are acting as a sort of capped non-linearity. At the same time, I do feel it is clear from the data that there is real nonlinearity here.
My version of the NBA play-by-play data for the 2022-23 season, with lineups on the floor during each event + possession count + column to filter out garbage time can be found here, along with #rstats code to replicate it:
https://t.co/qFWw3S4aIt
These words of wisdom from Jonathan Tjarks last month (in an interview with @ChrisCarrino) on his perspective of life and the prospect of death were so moving and continue to stick with me. He knew what and who was important to him, and lived it with clarity and purpose
Jonathan Tjarks was a man of God. I have great respect for the way he finished the course. Truly a life worth celebrating.
"I have fought the good fight, I have finished the course, I have kept the faith; in the future there is laid up for me the crown of righteousness..."
Hey all, Melissa here. Jon passed away yesterday after spending the day surrounded by family and friends. He’s in heaven now, probably asking God philosophical questions and hooping it up. Service is Friday at 11am. All are welcome. Details linked here: https://t.co/s78lSxgtYS
Added a new stat to our @The_BBall_Index applications that I've been calculating all season. It's very similar to the structure of LEBRON but instead of using box LEBRON as the prior, it uses @DSMok1 BPM from bball-ref.