Short $HCA and $OSCR if you believe the odds of a republican sweep are >10% (polymarket is at 9%). Think about it this way: 1) Dem house can stop more cuts 2) Dem house + senate will attempt to bring back the ACA tax credits and reverse the medicaid work requirement.
@SixSigmaCapital I am not complaining. All i wanted was to have an intellectual discussion as to why you think the AI in drug discovery post was ‘completely inaccurate’. Congrats to you for picking a stock that 7x in a yr not arguing with that at all
Thanks for also pointing out all the inaccuracies. So let me get this straight: you pitch TWST as a long at the end of 2025 because (automous) lab demand will grow, stock quintuples mostly from the multiple rerating. Now you’re saying the AI drug discovery narrative is overblown and TWST has run too much. What is it?
This is true for shorting in general; i have seen dumb investors short stocks because the accounting is ‘messy’ or DSOs are up 5% yoy. Massive waste of time
Steve Eisman says Michael Burry’s AI depreciation thesis “too academic” and says an OpenAI failure is the much larger risk
“I think, with all due respect to Michael, I think his argument is too academic."
"Put it this way: if AI succeeds because Anthropic and OpenAI grow like crazy and the hyperscalers do well, et cetera, et cetera, it’s not going to matter if the depreciation schedule changed from three to four years to five to six years."
"At the same time, if OpenAI fails and the whole chain goes in reverse, we’ll have a massive correction which has nothing to do with the depreciation schedule."
"I mean, I think what he’s deep down trying to point out is maybe there’s something wrong here, but I don’t think the thing that he’s pointing to as being wrong is important enough.”
I disagree with Huberman on this. It’s not because Anthropic is setting up a small lab in SF that they can compete with the likes of Lilly or Merck. At best they find a promising protein that they can sell to one of the big guys but why would they get into the business of filing INDs and BLAs? So far removed from their core business
If you still believe building a model from scratch will somehow give you an edge, you are retarded. Desktop work is a commodity, so is alt data. We’re going back to the basics, back to scuttlebutt. You have to meet people, visit companies, build a network. There is no other way