@benjamincowen I guess when you reach 1M followers & subs, youโre guaranteed to have actual idiots following you. Ignore the comments, keep providing excellent, top-tier analysis.
In all my years trading fixed income, Iโve never seen anything like it.
Today, I can finally say I survived the Great Fintwit Bond Crisis, Not-QE QE, and Slightly-YCC Event of August 19, 2026.
Generational trauma. Careers were tested. Yields moved several basis points.
We must never forget this day.
And, above all, always remember to watch your tails.
BREAKING: The US Government officially posts its largest July budget deficit in history, at -$432 billion, due to an acceleration in federal spending.
Interest on US debt rose +$26 billion from last July's levels to an alarming $118 billion for the month.
This puts total interest expense for FY2026 up to $1.17 trillion in FY2026.
As a result, interest expense has officially surpassed both National Defense and Medicare spending.
In other words, the US government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire US Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.
We cannot afford higher interest rates.
INSANE CRASH IN USD/JPY AND THE DOLLAR INDEX
USD/JPY dropped from 158.48 to 156.65 in a single 15-minute candle, over 180 pips.
The DXY fell from 99.90 to 99.40 in the exact same candle.
The dollar is being sold everywhere.
The US jobs report just came in negative, with the economy losing 23,000 jobs against expectations of a 85,000 gain.
That killed the case for a Fed rate hike.
Lower US rate expectations mean lower returns on holding dollars, so traders sell them.
And when the dollar falls, it falls against every currency, which is why the DXY dropped just as hard.
This is exactly what Japan needed. It spent $160 billion this year trying to push USD/JPY down and it kept coming back.
A weaker dollar does the same job for free.
@venkateshdotdev@kapilansh_twt Agreed. It almost doesnโt make sense to even try this on Windows lmao. Linux would probably yield much more viable results.
BREAKING: The odds of a September rate hike fall to 40% after the US economy unexpectedly posts its 3rd biggest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020.
Just days ago, markets saw at 70%+ chance of a September rate hike.
Gold prices are surging above $4,400/oz on the news.
Crypto trading activity is declining:
Daily trading volume across the 44 spot crypto exchanges tracked by Kaiko fell to ~$15 billion last week, the lowest level of the year.
This marks a -70% decline from January peak levels.
By comparison, in February, there were 2 trading days when volume exceeded $100 billion.
As a result, the average daily volume trend has fallen -50% since December 2025, to $20 billion, the lowest this year.
Meanwhile, trading volume remains heavily concentrated, with the 6 largest exchanges accounting for more than 60% of total activity.
Crypto market liquidity is drying up.
Kevin Warsh is reportedly cancelling the press conference for the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17th.
This is interesting because September is historically a volatile month due to liquidity drain from taxes.
Not speaking basically leaves the bond market rudderless at a terrible time.
The bond market is out of control.
The US 30Y Note Yield is now up to 5.27%, its highest level since June 2007.
This officially marks a +450 basis point rally since the low seen in 2020.
At the current pace, we are on track to see US 30Y mortgage rates exceed 7.50% by year-end.
And to top it all off, Fed Chair Warsh is now adamant that the market should operate independently, without Fed guidance.
Even without rate hikes or Fed guidance, the market is sending rates higher; operating exactly how Fed Chair Warsh wants it to operate.
The bond market will soon be the most talked about component of global capital markets.
This simply is not sustainable.