NFL 🏈 Lock #2 (Dec. 22nd)
Tyler Warren o 3.5 Rec
(-138 FD)
71 PERCENT HIT RATE 💎
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
- Yes, this play requires trusting Rivers, who isn’t what he used to be given his age. But the matchup and game script point directly toward Warren being involved.
- San Francisco’s defense is dealing with injuries in key areas, especially in coverage zones over the middle of the field. With Rivers’ arm strength being poor at this stage of his career expect him targeting receivers close to the line of scrimmage. That’s exactly where Tyler Warren operates best and where quick, high-percentage throws will be available.
- Rivers already showed trust in him, targeting Warren 6 times last game, and this matchup sets up for even more designed looks. San Francisco ranks bottom 10 in the league in receptions allowed to opposing TEs, making this a volume-friendly spot.
Warren has been quietly consistent:
•Cleared 3.5 rec in 71% of games
•70% hit rate over his last 10 games
•Averaging nearly 5 rec per game
- Expect the San Francisco 49ers to stack the box to slow down Jonathan Taylor, forcing Indianapolis to throw more than usual. When that happens, the Colts will need to get creative and that usually means quick throws, short routes, and tight end involvement.
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🚨NBA Best Bet🚨
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Wendell Carter Jr Over 22.5 PRA(-120 HR)
Without Wagner, Carter has recorded 22+ PRA in 8 straight games and has gone over this line in 7 of those games, dating back to last season when seeing at least 25 minutes.
The one under was a 22 PRA finish against a tough Knicks defensive matchup. He still went over this number vs the Nuggets, which is not an easy matchup either, and then smashed again vs the Jazz where he had 13 PRA in the first quarter alone.
Opposing centers have been dominant against the Warriors this season, especially with Horford ruled out again for this game.
Golden State is allowing the 11th most points per game, 6th most rebounds per game, and 7th most assists per game to opposing centers this season.
This spot screams smash with Wagner out once again and the Horford ruling. We prefer PRA over PR here due to the matchup, and his 1.5 assist line is heavily shaded toward the over.
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BEST CENTER MATCHUP TONIGHT👇🔒
NBA PLAY OF THE DAY #9💎
NBA Record 4-4📊
Derik Queen Over 20.5 PR⭐️
THE BIG EASY IS GOING TO SOAR TONIGHT!!!🏀🦅
Queen been going crazy at home where is he more comfortable at Avg 23.4 PR even with Zion back😈💰
Dallas gives up 2nd Most Pts Vs Centers & 3rd Most Rebs Vs Centers 😏📊
I EXPECT QUEEN TO DOMINATE TONIGHT!!!😤
Centers that hit this line last few games⬇️👀
Duren 30
Stewart 22
Flipowski 34
Claxton 24
40 Likes I’ll drop a pair 💰
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Like or comment if you tail ❤️
NBA PLAYS 🏀
Jordan Walsh o5.5 rebounds (-115) 🔒
Steph Curry o27.5 points (-137)
Saddiq Bey o13.5 points (-102)
Peyton Watson o17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
NBA RECORD: (125-104) 🔥
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The Brow Will Grab Boards💪🏽
Anthony Davis o11.5 Rebounds
(-120 MGM | 1 Unit)
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- Backing AD on the boards here against his old team. He’s cleared this line in 7/12 games with 20+ minutes this year, averaging 11.2 per contest.
- The Pelicans are allowing the 11th most rebounds per game (10th most over the last 10) and the 4th most to opposing centers.
- AD gets a lot of offensive rebounding opportunities, and the Pelicans allow the 6th most putbacks in the NBA.
- They also take the most attempts at the rim over the last month. While AD gets the majority of his rebounds off SMR FGA, some extra soft bounces at the rim definitely won’t hurt.
- Potentially no Cooper Flagg tonight as he deals with a back contusion. With him off the floor AD’s rebounds jump from 13.19 to 14.77 per 36 minutes.
- Massive total here at 240.5 with just a 1.5 spread, books expect this one to be an up-and-down, high-pace game.
Lock this in for tomorrow 🔒
1.25u - Jaylen Brown o29.5 Points
Run this up to 33 ❤️s for another NBA prop
Analysis + Projection ⬇️
Chart & Data from @propsdotcash
NBA POTD #1🏀 (Dec. 22nd)
He might be the best rookie📈
1. Kon Knueppel O26.5 PRA💎 #hivementality vs #LetEmKnow
Knueppel continues to be one of Charlotte’s most consistent all-around contributors, clearing this line in 9 of his last 10 away games while averaging 33.8 PRA in that stretch. The production isn’t a fluke, he’s seeing steady minutes and strong usage. Cleveland ranks 20th vs opposing guards, and this matchup sets up well for Knueppel’s balanced game. Last time he played the Cavs he cleared this line with 36 PRA. He’s active on the glass, facilitates when defenses collapse, and doesn’t need a scoring outlier to get home at this number.
With multiple paths to cash and a line sitting well below his recent baseline, this is a solid spot to trust the volume🔒
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Trust the Rookie Tonight. 💎👨🏽🍳
Cooper Flagg “O” 3.5 Assists
(-116 Draftkings) #MFFL
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Trusting the Rook to get 4+ Assists against a Pelicans defense who are prone to giving up assists. This season they rank 28th in assists allowed and specifically have trouble defending the paint.
He’s already played them twice this season and in their most recent matchup he racked up 5 assists. This was without AD active too.
31% of Flagg’s assists have been in the paint this year and the pelicans are 25th in points allowed in the paint. Another 29th of Flagg’s assists are above the break 3’s and the Pelicans rank 24th in that area. Simply put there’s just a lot of positives here for Flagg to rack up 4+ Assists.
When facing teams 20-30 in assists allowed he is over this line in 6/8 games this season. Now with AD active he’s over in 3/4 games including having multiple 8+ Assist games.
Only a 1.5 spread here with a massive 237.5 game total. Should be a lot of points scored in this one.
Flagg is questionable here but I expect him to play in this one. If not it’s a void so no problem.
LATE NIGHT COOKING 🧑🍳
🏀 PK Dish #1 (12/22)
🍽️ 𝐏𝐉 𝐖𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝟔.𝟓 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 (-𝟏𝟎𝟐 𝐎𝐧𝐲𝐱)
Cooked w/ @ChronicBets 🤝 @TheGr8Picks
LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
• PJ Washington gets boards. This season he’s over this line in 79% of his game averaging 7.9 RPG from 12.5 chances.
• Let’s add some KEY factors to show why this line is even more favorable. Derrick Lively is OUT for the season. In games where Lively sat and Cooper + AD played PJ Washington has a 86% hit rate only missing this line ONCE all season long (6/7). In those 7 games he averaged 7.9 RPG from 11.7 chances.
• Historically PJ loves grabbing boards vs the Pelicans as he’s hit this line in his last FIVE games in a row. Over his L5 H2H PJ has managed the following rebounds ⤵️
• 9 Rebs / 13 Chances (11/25) ✅
• 11 Rebs / 17 Chances (11/05) ✅
• 7 Rebs / 9 Chances (2/25) ✅
• 14 Rebs / 19 Chances (1/25) ✅
• 14 Rebs / 22 Chances (1/25) ✅
• They key factors here? All five of these matchups were this year and the last two were this season. He’s averaging 11 RPG over his L5 matches vs the Pelicans.
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𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗧 𝗦𝗛𝗘𝗘𝗧 - 12/22 📊🏀
⭐️ = our favorite plays
Mix and match props as you like for parlays or run them as straights!
*Based on opposing team defense vs position
HE GOES OFF TONIGHT 💨
Saddiq Bey 17.5 PR “O”
(-114)DK
🏀#1 #Pelicans Vs #MFFL
200❤️FOR MY POD NEXT!
Herb Jones is questionable. It’d be massive if he sits and this would gain major CLV.
Bey has been the direct beneficiary when Herb Jones is inactive as he’s OVER in 8/8 games. Regardless, he’s playing 25+ minutes a game, likely closer to 30+ which should be more than enough with his expected volume.
Matchup isn’t elite against Dallas, but that’s why we’re getting such a generous line for Saddiq.
I’m not going to overlook this line as he’s over in 12/L13 games. I’ll keep it simple as books have consistently undervalued him all season.
December 22nd NBA Props🚨🔥
▫️LaMelo Ball Over 26.5 Pts+Ast
▫️Jamal Murray Over 32 Pts+Ast
▫️Stephen Curry Over 33.5 Pts+Ast
▫️Cade Cunningham Over 37.5 Pts+Ast
BOL if tailing any props! 🍀🤝