Ellis Mercer

Independent investor | Former portfolio manager
Creator of Market Gravity
Tracking what changes before the market fully prices it.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

Most market commentary explains what already happened.

I care about three questions:

What does the market expect?
What is actually changing?
What still hasn’t been priced?

That’s the lens I use here.

Markets don’t move on “good” or “bad” alone.

They move when reality starts to diverge from what was already expected.

Good news can sell off.

Bad news can rally.

So I keep looking for the gap between:

Expectations.
Reality.
Price.

Then I look for confirmation in the market itself.

Is liquidity improving or deteriorating?

Where is capital actually moving?

Is leadership broadening, narrowing, or rotating?

How are stocks reacting to earnings?

Are estimates still moving?

Is price confirming the change — or rejecting it?

I’m not trying to call every move.

I’m trying to catch the changes that matter before they become obvious.

What does the market expect?
What is actually changing?
What still hasn’t been priced?

That’s what I’ll keep tracking here.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

After $NVDA earnings, I was watching China to see what got bought first while the U.S. was closed.

It wasn’t GPUs, HBM or advanced packaging.

It was liquid cooling and PTFE.

That’s interesting for U.S. stocks too.

Liquid cooling is starting to look less like a penetration story. With Rubin moving toward full liquid cooling, it’s becoming something the system just needs.

PTFE is a little different.

The interesting part there is the material change itself.

AI servers are starting to pull a pretty small high-end fluoropolymer market into a much bigger demand pool. And there just aren’t that many companies in China that can make the higher-performance modified PTFE materials used in copper-clad laminates.

That’s probably why the smaller names are moving so much harder.

Zhe Jiang Kangsheng Co., Ltd. (https://t.co/yHvALkmIfb) has hit limit-up three days in a row.

Nanjing Comptech Composites Corporation (https://t.co/tLYybWp4OY) and Shenzhen WOTE Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (https://t.co/GTdZkqU1Hi) both hit limit-up today.

Comptech was up 20% today and has gone from roughly RMB 31 to RMB 50 in five trading days.

WOTE has moved from around RMB 19 to RMB 24 over the same stretch.

I’ll be watching for the same thing in the U.S.

$NVDA gave the market the catalyst. Now I want to see where the extra beta shows up.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@The_AI_Investor Well, that moved fast 😂

If this actually closes, Nvidia just bought one of the biggest distribution points in open-source AI.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@aleabitoreddit This is interesting.

The part I’d want to know too is how quickly supply can actually come back. If that takes longer than people expect, the earnings move could have a lot more room.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@NPGrothe Exactly. If the cost keeps dropping like that, the whole robotaxi story gets a lot more interesting.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@MarkosAAIG @jiahanjimliu Makes a lot more sense if the IPO is part of the goal.

Maybe they’re giving up a little on price now to make the bigger story look stronger.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@Wealth_WZRD Hard to call it “just cyclical” when people are already locking up supply years out.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@SmallCapSnipa 2 million more GPUs is kind of crazy.

And this is just one hyperscaler.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@athuinvests $279B is insane.

And the fact that so much of it is memory tells you where the real pressure is.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@phithetasigma This is the part people are probably skipping over.

They’re locking up supply without having to fully lock themselves in. Pretty nice setup.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@PepInvestStocks That’s what I’m watching too.

$NVDA did its part. Now let’s see who actually gets the follow-through.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@Wealth_WZRD $MU really does look like it wants that level.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@NPGrothe Same 500 stocks, totally different trade depending on how you weight them.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@UnanimousUtd144 Nice way to end the day 😂

$NVDA definitely helped a lot of portfolios tonight.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@ariaradnia 21 with an AMG is pretty wild 😂

Enjoy it man.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@firstadopter 2.3M in a day from a chip conference is kind of nuts.

Guess people really do want this stuff in real time.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@growthrapidly That’s the funny part.

Price goes up, numbers go up faster, and suddenly the stock looks cheaper.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@HunterAllen4 $P gets a lot more interesting if storage keeps turning into an AI bottleneck.

At some point the market may stop treating it like just another storage stock.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@jukan05 If this actually happens, that’s a big one.

Hugging Face is basically where half the open-source AI crowd lives. Nvidia owning that would be wild.

[Ellis Mercer @EllisMercerHQ]

@aleabitoreddit Yeah, the “supply constrained” part jumped out at me too.

If demand is still ahead of supply, the higher-beta names probably still have room to run.