Bittoo

Navigating the Silicon Sublime.

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@emollick Data on hiring (FT) + Capital through $1bn val illustrate hope for the later

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

Another expression of the same phenomenon?

AI is not primarily shrinking the firm; It is expanding what the firm attempts

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@anah_sahh MAA - Master of Agent Administration :)

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@davidpattersonx What else looks like this chart?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@Plinz And yet here we are - on X! Guess that’s where fam is

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@davidpattersonx https://t.co/MBXNtXaC7D

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/5) GenAI reached half of US adults in 3 years – the fastest adoption ever measured. Faster than the PC and the internet.

True stat; wrong story.

The real story is a cascade: reach ~55% → habit ~15% → value ~5%

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@rand_longevity Singularity has become Y2K countdown of our times

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@kylesnage AGI optimist, I see! We will add your prediction up here as well :)

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@GaryMarcus Raw intelligence was necessary but not sufficient. Tools, accumulated & shared context and social fabric also critical and the "loop" that it created. We are still focused on which model, what benchmark!

https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@VraserX Whether we’re in the singularity or not depends on how you define it. Raw intelligence is necessary but not sufficient
https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@blader Whether we’re in the singularity or not depends on how you define it. Raw intelligence is necessary but not sufficient
https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@davidpattersonx Whether we’re in the singularity or not depends on how you define it. Raw intelligence is necessary but not sufficient
https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@haider1 Whether we’re in the singularity or not depends on how you define it. Raw intelligence is necessary but not sufficient
https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@KentonVarda Another analogy might be "outsourcing" coding vs. "delegating" coding (esp. for non-engineers).

However, AI agents are still local optima maximizers and for outsourcing like usage, you need them to follow the spirit of the goal, not letter of the prompt.

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@bendee983 Also starting to see in other fields (e.g., Finance) - where you can see AI changing workflows month after month.

https://t.co/XU3Ii0rjDV

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

Working with agents = working with new analysts who are smarter than you. They knw their technicals, are resourceful, tireless, and eager to please. They stumble adjusting goals – zooming from detail to big-pict & back.
End-output is bottlenecked by reviewer bandwidth. That's you

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@a_musingcat Or the value capture moves to demonstrating what you do with the ideas and the fighting becomes a moot point

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(3/3) Another view: Perez's surge cycle runs ~half a century. ~20-30 yrs of installation before deployment pays broadly. A 20-25 yr onset-to-boost lag is installation from outside.

Place AI on that clock. We're not yet halfway.

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) 5 general purpose techs - every time, the productivity payoff arrives decades after launch.

The lag compressed as each wave landed on the last one's finished infra - grid made the moving assembly line possible, internet shipped chatbot overnight.

But there's a floor: ~20-25 yrs

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(2/3) Why a floor? Two clocks.

1st the tech iterates – 1995 internet ≠ what reorganized daily life. Frontier is still a benchmark argument; memory, context, goal adjustment getting started.

2nd institutions reorganize – workflows, org charts, careers. Not bolted on. Rebuilt around it

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@rand_longevity Depends on how you define it? 2035+

Raw intelligence was necessary but not sufficient. Tools, accumulated & shared context and social fabric also critical and the "loop" that it created. We are still focused on which model, what benchmark!

https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

@kimmonismus Whether we’re in the singularity or not depends on how you define it. More important: how has it actually changed how you live?
https://t.co/VM8zvHjbku

[Bittoo @FlaneurDotAI]

(1/3) Everyone's reading this chart as a bet on when AGI arrives – take your pick. It isn't a disagreement about when. It's a disagreement about what "intelligence" even is. Benchmarks, evals, reasoning traces or something more broader?