Mr Charles Harper 🧀

Casa em Malibu e desgraça

[Rafael Gloves @rafaelgloves]

C A R A I O

[Jaynit @jaynitx]

Charlie Munger spent 50 years studying why intelligent people make catastrophically stupid decisions.

It is the most useful thing I have ever watched:

1. Incentives are more powerful than anyone thinks. Munger says he has been in the top 5% of his age cohort his entire life in understanding the power of incentives and he has still underestimated it every single year. Federal Express could not get their night shift to work efficiently until someone realized they were paying by the hour. They switched to paying by the shift. The problem disappeared immediately.

2. People rationalise terrible behavior when their incentives point that way, and they do not even know they are doing it. A doctor in Nebraska was removing perfectly healthy gallbladders for years. When Munger asked an old colleague whether the doctor knew he was harming patients, the answer was no. he genuinely believed the gallbladder was the source of all medical evil and that removing it was an act of love. That is incentive-caused bias at its most extreme.

3. Psychological denial is real, and it is not just for weak people. A family friend's son flew off a carrier in the North Atlantic and never came back. His mother, a completely sane woman, simply never believed he was dead. Reality was too painful, so she distorted it until it was bearable. Munger says we all do this to some extent, and it causes terrible problems.

4. Consistency and commitment tendency are one of the most powerful forces in the human mind. Once you have stated a position publicly, you are psychologically locked into it. Max Planck said the really important new physics was never accepted by the old guard. A new guard came along that was less brain blocked by its previous conclusions. If this happened to the deans of physics, Munger says, imagine what it does to ordinary people.

5. The Chinese brainwashing system used on prisoners of war worked better than torture. They did not start with big demands. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declarations and slowly built from there. The same mechanism operates in every cult, every sales system, and every ideology that gets deeply embedded in people's heads.

6. Pavlovian association shapes buying behavior at a level most people never consciously process. Munger estimates three quarters of all advertising works on pure Pavlov. Coca-Cola does not want to be associated with funerals. They want to be associated with the Olympics, wonderful music, heroics. The association itself changes how people feel about the product at a subconscious level. Raising the price of a product can actually increase its market share because price and quality are associated in the human mind, and people use price as a signal of value.

7. Persian messenger syndrome is alive and running every major organization. The Persians killed the messenger who brought bad news. Bill Paley in his last 20 years, did not hear one thing he did not want to hear. everyone around him knew bringing bad news was dangerous. The result was that one of the most powerful men in media made terrible decisions for two decades because reality never reached him.

8. Social proof causes otherwise intelligent people to follow each other off cliffs. When one oil company bought a fertilizer company in the 1970s, practically every other major oil company rushed out and did the same. There was no rational reason for oil companies to own fertilizer companies. But if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil. Every single acquisition was a disaster.

9. The efficient market theory persisted in academia for decades despite Berkshire Hathaway existing as a living contradiction. One economist kept adding sigmas to explain away the anomaly. two sigma, then three, then four, eventually six sigma. Munger's observation: It is better to add a sigma than change a theory just because the evidence comes in differently. That economist later went into money management himself and sank like a stone.

10. Contrast bias warps perception constantly and invisibly. Put your hand in hot water, then room temperature water. It feels cold. Put your hand in cold water, then room temperature water. It feels hot. same bucket. The human sensory apparatus has no absolute scale, only a contrast scale. Real estate agents exploit this deliberately. They show you two overpriced, awful houses first, then take you to a merely overpriced house, and it feels like a bargain.

11. The frog in slowly heating water is the business version of contrast bias. If something bad comes to you in small pieces, you are likely to miss it entirely. Munger says he has known many high-powered brilliant businessmen who were destroyed this way. not because they were stupid but because each incremental change was too small to trigger alarm. The contrast was never large enough to notice.

12. Authority bias is so powerful it can make trained professionals watch a plane crash. In flight simulator experiments, when the pilot, the authority figure, does something that any trained co-pilot knows will crash the plane, 25% of the time, the co-pilot sits there and lets it crash anyway. They have been trained to know better. The authority relationship overrides the training.

13. Deprivation super reaction syndrome explains why people go insane over small losses. Munger's neighbor had a 180 degree view of the harbor. the neighbor put in a pine tree about 3 feet high that turned it into a 179 and three-quarter degree view. They had a blood feud that went on for years. The New Coke disaster is the corporate version. Coca-Cola told customers they were changing a flavor and triggered a deprival super reaction so powerful that Pepsi was weeks away from releasing old Coke in a Pepsi bottle. smart engineers. brilliant lawyers. armies of psychologists. All missed it.

14. Envy and jealousy are far more powerful than greed and almost entirely absent from psychology textbooks. Munger says Warren Buffett has said half a dozen times that it is not greed that drives the world but envy. In a thousand-page psychology textbook, the index entry for envy and jealousy is blank. One of the most powerful forces in human behavior and academia essentially ignores it.

15. Gambling addiction is not explained by variable reinforcement alone. Skinner thought he had fully explained gambling by showing that variable reward schedules pound in behavior more powerfully than fixed ones. But the people who design modern slot machines know things Skinner did not. Lotteries where you pick your own number get far more play than lotteries where the number is assigned to you. People who commit to a number believe it has more validity because they chose it. Near misses on slot machines trigger deprival super reaction syndrome. It is four or five psychological tendencies working together, not one.

16. The most dangerous situations are when multiple psychological tendencies combine toward the same end at once. Munger calls this the lollapalooza effect. Tupperware parties use four or five tendencies simultaneously. Moonie conversion methods combine multiple tendencies and work extraordinarily well. alcoholics anonymous achieves a 50% no drinking rate when everything else fails because it also combines multiple tendencies toward a constructive end. The Milgram experiment is not just about obedience. it involves authority bias, consistency and commitment tendency, and contrast effects all working together. That combination turns human brains into mush.

17. Boards of directors are structurally designed to fail as corrective mechanisms. The top executive is the authority figure. He is doing something questionable. You look around, and nobody else is objecting, which is social proof that it is fine. He flies you around in the corporate jet and raises your director fees every year, which triggers reciprocation tendency. Munger's rule: boards only act when the behavior gets so bad it starts making them look foolish or threatens legal liability. That is the only forcing function that reliably works.

18. John Goodfriend of Salomon Brothers destroyed his career and reputation because he did not fire a trusted employee who had lied to the government. Every psychological tendency pointed toward keeping the man. He was a close colleague. His wife was known. He was part of a group that had made over a billion dollars for the firm. He said he had never done it before and would never do it again. Goodfriend looked into his eyes and believed him. The man did it again. The lesson: everyone who gets caught embezzling says they have never done it before and will never do it again. That is what they all say.

19. Darwin avoided confirmation bias by deliberately seeking out disconfirming evidence. Munger says Darwin was not especially smart by ordinary standards of human acuity. Yet he is buried in Westminster Abbey. Munger studied how Darwin worked and realized he had psychological tricks worth learning. Darwin always paid extra attention to evidence that contradicted his theories. Munger started doing the same and credits it as one of the most important intellectual habits of his life.

20. Why is the most important word in communication? Carl Braun designed oil refineries with spectacular skill, and you got fired in his company if you wrote a communication without explaining why. not just who, what, where, and when, but why. Braun knew that in a complex system where things can blow up, a communication system that always explains the reason behind an instruction works dramatically better than one that does not. Forstein, the general counsel of Salomon, told Goodfriend on multiple occasions that he had to report the employee's misconduct. He explained it was the right thing to do. He never explained what would happen to Goodfriend personally if he did not. he failed to use the most powerful tool of persuasion. Goodfriend ignored him. When Goodfriend went down, Forstein went with him.

[Rumenta 🇮🇹 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 @rumentacontrac1]

"repetita iuvant"

ITALIANI, I MIGLIORI.

Dell’Ing. Marco Pianigiani (ingegnere navale, La Spezia)

Sono in Norvegia, in fondo ad un fiordo del cazzo, privo di qualsiasi attrattiva naturalistica, se non fosse perché il termine villaggio è completamente diverso dalla nostra tradizione mediterranea e dalla nostra percezione semantica; un territorio di 1410 km quadrati con una popolazione di 1147 abitanti, come capirò in seguito, uguale ad altri mille, ovvero una impalpabile spolverata di case lontane una dalle altre.
Nella lunga notte invernale, queste case sono rintracciabili, ai bordi dell’unica strada che circumnaviga il fiordo, perché hanno delle abat-jour, delle luci, delle candele finte alle finestre prive di scuri, sempre accese notte e giorno.
Questo lontananza abitativa delle persone, è rappresentativa della densità dei sudditi del regno, più grande dell’Italia ma con soli cinque milioni di abitanti.
La prima caratteristica di questo popolo, che salta all’occhio dello straniero, è la presunzione di superiorità, evidente effetto della mancanza di abitudine alla convivenza che inevitabilmente porta al confronto con gli altri e ad una reale consapevolezza di sé come individui e come popolo.
I Norvegesi disprezzano gli Svedesi, figuriamoci gli Italiani, ma come sono finito in questo posto?
Lavoro in un grande gruppo cantieristico italiano e sono in una squadra che deve consegnare una nave rompighiaccio per ricerca oceanografica ad un armatore norvegese presso il cantiere che si trova in fondo a questo fiordo del cazzo.
E questo posto improvvisamente si è trasformato in un laboratorio antropologico, dove ho capito fino in fondo perché noi Italiani siamo amati individualmente ma odiati come popolo; guardo gli operai norvegesi sono esteticamente impeccabili, tuta mai scolorita, scarponi, casco, occhiali protettivi, cuffie antirumore, ma tecnicamente incapaci per fare un lavoro banale serve un quaderno di istruzioni.
Poiché con gli operai norvegesi non riuscivo a completare gli ultimi lavori per la consegna della nave, ho dovuto richiamare la mia squadra italiana che è formata da un gruppo di napoletani; una mattina si sono presentati in cantiere in otto; chi già con addosso gli abiti da lavoro, chi con un sacchetto del Conad con dentro una tuta che ha visto mille lavaggi; il loro capetto si chiama Maurizio, come dice lui “coming from Torre Annunziata”.
Lo guardo e gli chiedo: “Dove sono i cassoni degli attrezzi e del materiale?”
“Boss mi hai chiamato ieri l’altro sera, secondo te in 24 ore oltre a trovare un volo ed un albergo cosa posso fare di più?”
“Secondo te, con che cazzo lo facciamo il lavoro?”
“Sono le 8 del mattino, in portineria mi hanno detto di andare tutti insieme al corso della sicurezza di questi mammalucchi e poi mi organizzo”
sto per inveire tutti suoi avi quando mi dice: “Prima che tu cominci a gridare nel telefono aspetta mezzogiorno che ti do un ritorno”
“Se non mi arriva il ritorno sicuramente ti arriverà una flangia cieca DN300 in piena fronte”.
Arrivò mezzogiorno, e passò; mezzogiorno e mezzo, niente; all’una arriva Maurizio, prima che potessi offenderlo come sempre mi anticipò: “Già che c’ero sono andato a mangiare, poi ho trovato il magazzino del materiale, ho visto che c’è quasi tutto quello che mi serve e mi sono messo d’accordo con Alf”
“e chi è Alf?”
“Il magazziniere, è nu bravo guaglione”
“Ma Alf parla inglese?”
“No, ma quando mai! e poi io non parlo inglese”
“Chissà che cazzo avrà capito!”
“Ho trovato anche il magazzino degli attrezzi, è a disposizione di tutti, inoltre i polacchi mi prestano il banco, la saldatrice, il cannello, la piegatubi, e la torcia per il TIG”
“e le fasce di sollevamento?”
“Sono d’accordo con il gruista dopo le tre si ferma e mi fa gli imbarchi; domani sera ti chiudo il primo impianto”.
Maurizio non è mai stato in questo cantiere, non è mai stato in Norvegia, ma è laureato in sopravvivenza alla facoltà di Castellammare di Stabia, guardo lui e guardo i suoi uomini guizzare come delfini intorno ai norvegesi che sembrano un branco di acciughe stordite.
Ecco perché questo popolo è odiato, perché è più intelligente.

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@oelma__ Fich dich immer frei

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@TitvsImperator2 falso
cane affamato non teme bastone
wurstel va anche con ketchup

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@rafaelgloves alguem foi tirar a mae da zona

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@analuizadenovo Linda

[Algodão @algodaoS2doce]

@jairbolsonaro Bom dia!

[Incelso Portiolli @IncelsoPorti]

MUNDO:
TRUMP REELEITO, TWITTER COMPRADO PELO ELLON MUSK, FACEBOOK SEM CENSURA, MILEI, RÚSSIA GANHANDO A GUERRA

BOSTIL:
PIX 5MIL REAIS NO IR, CARECA PROIBINDO REDE SOCIAL, NÃO COMPRO MAIS NA SHEIN, DÓLAR A 6 CONTO, ADRESSA URACH BIFURCANDO A LINGUA, FEZ JOINHA MORREU

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@iamnot_elon Obviously

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@elonmusk listen to a newbie: you can embed a proxy system in the X app in Brazil, just like Telegram does. It's not a VPN...just saying....

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@stclairashley The average income is 1400 r$

Not dollars, reais

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@Stavrogina_ @Fabious916 Triggered cumcietta

[Christopher Thomas @cbthomas909]

@UltraDane First rule of a government is to protect its citizens.

Western governments have turned into the people stealing silverware and fine china on the sinking Titanic.

They no longer represent you

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@Tim_Roehn @investigativ_de @MartinLutzWELT Hat er "ich bezahle die Pensionskasse!" gesagt und danach die Attack begonnen?

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@AnnaCatwomen76 @OfficialTozzi Du magst ein sc*****z?

[Mr Charles Harper 🧀 @GCampaiola]

@Gigadesires "sono all'estero e non denunciabile"
Qualcuno spieghi a sto tipo, io sono stanco.

[Løen @l03n27]

A MULHER DO MILITÃO QUERENDO UMA BABÁ DE MANHÃ E UMA ENFERMEIRA A NOITE

como eu odeio esse tipo de mulher que acha que cuidar de criança e DELEGAR A DIFERENTES PROFISSIONAIS

puta cachorra vagabunda e ele é um otário pau mole lixo verme

[Xℝℙ_𝔸𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 🔧 🌐 @AllianceXrp]

@tomrfn