Giordano Russo

Crypto/Stock

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Oracle is now spending all its revenue on capex

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

Read this piece by Steve Jobs every single morning

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

How can you look at financial markets and not think it’s the greatest game of poker ever

[Nic @puckrin]

The US just bought yen for the first time since 1998.

This isn't about saving Japan. It's about saving the US bond market.

What just happened:

- Yen hit ¥164 last week, weakest since 1986
- Japan spent a record $52.8B defending it on Thursday
- Friday, the US joined in: NY Fed sold euros to buy yen, via Goldman & Morgan Stanley
- First joint US-Japan intervention in nearly 30 years

Why Washington cares:

- Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries
- Tokyo defending the yen alone means selling dollars
- And Japan's dollars sit in Treasuries
- Every solo intervention = UST selling, with 30Y yields already at 19-year highs

The elegant part:

- The US sold euros, not dollars
- Firepower for Tokyo without forcing it to dump Treasuries
- Defending the yen IS defending the US bond market

The catch:

- The Fed is expected to hike. The BoJ just held at 1%
- Intervention buys time. Only rate convergence fixes this
- Shorts are already targeting ¥162

America just chose its bond market over the dollar's rally.

That tells you which one it's worried about.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇯🇵 US Treasury informs banks it may intervene in the Japanese yen market.

[Incentivising @incentivising]

Game theory explains why advice from successful people is almost always useless. You are studying survivors, the ones who endured hardships, collapse, and catastrophe. And survivors frequently cannot see the graveyard. A thousand people ran the same aggressive strategy, and one of them, the person you're speaking to, happened to be the one to make it out. The useful advice is never what the winner did. It is what the winner did that the losers did not, and that's the question they frequently don't answer. Study the graveyard, because everyone still standing has an enormous incentive to believe it was skill.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surges highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis.

[Patrick Bet-David @patrickbetdavid]

People don't do business with the smartest person in the room.

They do business with the person they like, trust, and respect.

[CASSIUS @CassiusAnalyse]

La théorie des jeux enseigne une vérité inconfortable :
La loyauté la plus solide n’est pas celle qu’on espère. C’est celle qu’on a rendue rationnelle.

Si un homme a mathématiquement plus à gagner en vous trahissant qu’en restant loyal, et qu’il ne risque aucune conséquence, alors la trahison devient une décision logique. Peu importe son sourire. Peu importe son apparente gentillesse. Peu importe ce qu’il vous promet aujourd’hui.

Les hommes ne sont pas seulement guidés par leurs valeurs. Ils réagissent aussi aux incitations auxquelles ils sont soumis.

C’est pourquoi l’un des principes les plus importants de la théorie des jeux est le suivant : Ne placez jamais quelqu’un dans une situation où il peut vous trahir sans que cela lui coûte quoi que ce soit. Une loyauté durable ne repose pas uniquement sur la confiance. Elle repose sur une structure où la coopération reste le meilleur choix.

[CASSIUS @CassiusAnalyse]

L'une des règles les plus utiles en matière en théorie des jeux est celle-ci : on ne joue jamais contre une personne, on joue contre sa position.

Le commercial qui refuse de baisser son prix ne vous en veut pas, il protège sa commission. Le collègue qui bloque votre projet ne vous déteste pas, il défend son budget. Le recruteur qui vous laisse sans réponse n'est pas malpoli, il n'a simplement aucun coût à ne pas répondre.

Cessez de lire les intentions, lisez les positions. Vous découvrirez que le monde contient beaucoup moins de méchants que vous ne le croyez, et beaucoup plus de gens coincés dans une structure qui les contraint autant que vous.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Mark Zuckerberg warns a small group controlling superintelligence could dominate economics, science and politics — calls for “personal superintelligence” for everyone.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: FIFA President Gianni Infantino plans to create a $20 billion company running the World Cup with private investors including the Kushner family, per TSN

[James Perkins @thejamesperkins]

How I survived corporate in a nutshell:

[Will Chen @stablechen]

https://t.co/HE53BVNxqt

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

https://t.co/OPGS7HUKaG

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

"I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race." Google co-founder Larry Page on the AI race.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Gulf nations have issued $112 billion in bonds year-to-date, the highest amount on record for this point of the year.

Bond sales have more than tripled since 2022.

This comes as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar seek financing for infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

This includes new ports on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, repairing older oil and gas pipelines, and improving road networks across these countries.

Kuwait alone raised $6.0 billion last week, with investor orders reaching $14.8 billion, more than double the amount issued, highlighting resilient demand for the debt of Gulf nations.

Gulf nations are borrowing at a record pace as they rush to reshape their infrastructure.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Carry trades are having their strongest year in decades:

An emerging-market carry strategy, borrowing in euros to invest in higher-yielding currencies such as the Brazilian real, Colombian peso, and Turkish lira, is up +18% year-to-date, its strongest start to a year since 2005.

A carry trade is a strategy where traders borrow in a low-yielding currency and invest in currencies with higher interest rates, earning the difference as long as the exchange rate does not move against them.

By comparison, a G10 carry strategy, which borrows in currencies such as the euro, Danish krone, and Swiss franc to invest in higher-yielding currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar, has returned +8%.

This comes as unusually low currency volatility, combined with a resilient global economy despite the Iran-driven oil shock, has encouraged investors to continue adding exposure to carry trades.

Risk appetite in the FX market is surging.

[Ross Gerber @GerberKawasaki]

Capex is not bad. It's good. These companies have been printing money for years. They see the huge AI opportunity and are investing to control this future and its profits. This is what good businesses do... $GOOG

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

We are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in modern history.

Alphabet, $GOOGL, just raised their full-year 2026 CapEx guidance to up to $205 billion.

This annual CapEx budget alone is larger than the market cap of all but 85 companies in the world.

The Magnificent 7 will soon spend over $1 trillion in combined annual CapEx.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime technological revolution.