Grayson

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@Sam67024298780 All high beta took a 30% haircut

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Who the hell priced the CXMT IPO???
They are IPOing at just $80B market cap (revenue will be in the $50B-$60B range this year at 75% GM, next year over $120B)
Is there a way to get in??

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@nicaqs Had to jinx us

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@smartertrader

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

Virginia Lawmakers Approve First-of-Its-Kind Data Center Power Tax: Governor Spanberger signed Virginia's biennial budget on June 30, establishing a $0.011/kWh consumption tax on all data center electricity (incl. behind-the-meter generation) effective July 1, 2026. Estimated to raise ~$600M annually over a two-year sunset period (expires July 2028). Collections exceeding $600M in any fiscal year are refunded pro rata to operators.

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@valerijatrades1 @NighthawkTradez Probably $DRAM

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@aleabitoreddit Don’t let the Japanese get a hold of this

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

MARKET MECHANICS LESSON:

Why MRVL Crashed Into the Close

Yesterday MRVL ran from ~$305 to ~$329 by mid-afternoon. Then it fell $19 in 10 minutes and crossed at $310.58. No news. No earnings miss. No downgrade. Pure mechanics. Here's what happened and why it matters.

THE SETUP: INDEX INCLUSION ARBITRAGE

When a stock gets added to a major index, passive funds are required to buy it at the closing price on inclusion day. They have no choice. They must own it by the close. Everyone knows this in advance.

Arbitrage firms exploit this. In the days leading up to inclusion, they accumulate shares before the passive funds are forced to buy. Then they sell into the guaranteed demand at the close. The profit is the spread between their entry price and the closing cross.

THE MRVL TRADE:

June 15-17: Arb desks accumulated roughly $20-30B of MRVL inventory through dark pools. Blended cost: approximately $290-300.

Yesterday morning: MRVL ran from $305 to $329. Momentum traders and short-covering piled in ahead of the inclusion print. The arbs sat on their inventory and watched the price rise. Every dollar higher was additional profit on their position.

3:50 PM: The MOC (Market on Close) imbalance feed published. This is the official number that tells the market how much net buying the passive funds need at the close. The imbalance indicated $5-8B of net buying needed.

THE PROBLEM: The arbs had $20-30B of inventory to sell. The passive funds only needed $5-8B. There were 3-4x more sellers than buyers.

3:50-4:00 PM: The arbs recognized the mismatch instantly. They started selling aggressively on the lit order book to clear inventory before the close. They couldn't wait for the 4:00 PM cross because there wasn't enough passive demand to absorb their full position. MRVL dropped from $327 to $310 in 10 minutes.

4:00 PM cross: $310.58. The passive funds got their full allocation at this price. The arbs unloaded the bulk of their inventory. Still profitable. They bought at $290-300 and sold at $310. But significantly less profitable than $327.

4:01-4:14 PM: The remaining $10B+ of residual inventory cleaned up through dark pool and swap structures at the official close mark.

THE OPTIONS TELL:

At 3:33 PM, with MRVL trading at $327.62, someone bought $310 puts expiring that same day for $0.24. Those puts were 5.4% out of the money with 27 minutes until expiration. On any normal day, that's a lottery ticket that expires worthless.

Those puts went deep in the money. MRVL crossed at $310.58. The $310 strike was at the money at the close. A $0.24 option became valuable in 27 minutes because the buyer understood the inclusion mechanics that were about to unfold.

THE LESSON:

This wasn't manipulation. It wasn't a crash. It was the predictable resolution of an arbitrage supply-demand imbalance.

The passive funds created guaranteed demand. The arbs front-ran that demand. The arbs accumulated more inventory than the demand could absorb. The MOC imbalance revealed the mismatch at 3:50 PM. The arbs sold into each other trying to exit first. The price fell to the level where supply met demand.

Every index inclusion event has this dynamic. The magnitude depends on the gap between arb inventory and passive fund demand. When the arbs overestimate the demand (or over-accumulate inventory), the closing cross is violent. When the sizes match, the cross is orderly.

The flow told the story before the price did. The dark pool accumulation over three days mapped the arb inventory. The MOC imbalance at 3:50 PM revealed the mismatch. The options market at 3:33 PM showed someone positioning for the exact outcome. The mechanics were visible to anyone watching the right data.

This is why we track flow, not headlines. The mechanic says: index arbs over-accumulated and the MOC imbalance was too small to absorb them. Same result. Different understanding. Different edge next time.

$MRVL $SMH $QQQ

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@TheStockSleuth @NighthawkTradez ODTE lottos and throwing the profits into $BMNR

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@Filmdaddy77 Joe u genuinely helped so much with my conviction over the past year 🫡

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@nicaqs You’ve been on a streak 🤩

[Ren @ren_stocks]

I’m long $NOK

$NOK not being up at least 30% on this news just lets me know most people are missing the turnaround story, the geopolitical angle and the bet on America.

Nokia is 10x-ing photonic chip packaging capacity at its Allentown, Pennsylvania facility. Commercially available by end of Q3.

The numbers confirmed from the June 16 release:

-- ~$30M Nokia capex, plus ~$4M Pennsylvania state aid and ~$10M federal CHIPS investment tax credit
-- 500+ new jobs, nearly doubling the PA workforce
-- $500M+ projected economic impact over 5 years
-- Part of Nokia's broader $4B US R&D and manufacturing commitment

Less than 2% of global semiconductor advanced test and packaging happens in the US. Nokia's Allentown plant is one of the only domestic sites packaging photonic chips into optical modules for AI data centers. Their optical tech can cut energy usage by as much as 75%.

This facility came from Infinera. Nokia acquired Infinera in February 2025.

Allentown traces directly back to Infinera's decades of work in photonic integrated circuits, coherent optical technology, and domestic optical manufacturing.

When people look at $NOK and see a sleepy European telecom equipment maker, they are missing that Nokia absorbed one of the most important US-based photonics manufacturing assets in existence and is now scaling it 10x with government money behind it.

The market is still pricing the legacy telecom company. It is not pricing the domestic photonics infrastructure play that Nokia built through the Infinera deal.

Reshoring is its own thesis now, and it has government money and a Q3 deadline attached to it.

When less than 2% of global ATP happens domestically and Washington wants that number to climb, the few companies that already own US photonics packaging capacity become strategically valuable in a way that has nothing to do with quarterly telecom revenue.

It is a $20B+ telecom giant and the Allentown expansion is a small piece of the total business.

For a name the market still prices as legacy telecom, getting a domestic photonics packaging franchise with CHIPS Act backing essentially for free inside the valuation is the kind of mispricing I like.

The market is misreading this headline. I rather trade the supply chain.

Bullish AF $NOK

[TickerTapX @TickerTapX]

$KEEL - Ben just explained @McnallieM exactly what the $458M raise is for. (Link in the comments)

And it’s not what most people think.

The three near-term sites - Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake - were already fully funded before this raise. That hasn’t changed.

This capital is for Scrubgrass.

Specifically:

•Natural gas lateral engineering and advancement
•Detailed load studies across sites
•Securing expansion capacity beyond 350 MW at Panther Creek

Ben’s words: “For Scrubgrass to advance the nat gas laterals it’s going to cost money. Same with the detailed load studies being conducted across our sites.”

They raised $458M at 1.25% interest - cheaper than a savings account pays - specifically to accelerate the gigacampus that the market isn’t even pricing in yet.

The other things Ben said that matter:

💰 Approaching $1 billion in total liquidity.
Ben called it a “game changer” for how potential customers perceive Keel. A billion dollar balance sheet changes the conversation in lease negotiations.

📉 No ATM equity issued in over 12 months.
“We’ve been really judicious when it comes to issuing equity.” The convertible note concern is valid - but they haven’t been diluting via ATM. That matters.

Ben explicitly stated: “I don’t think we’ve issued a share under the ATM in well over 12 months.”

🏭 Pennsylvania labor - zero concern.
Texas is stretched thin with man camps and imported labor. Pennsylvania has generational skilled tradespeople in ample supply. Welders, pipefitters, carpenters - all local. No premium. No shortage.

🏦 Enterprise customers will pay MORE than hyperscalers.
Ben made the clearest case yet for Sharon’s enterprise demand. Financial firms deploying AI for their own use have a completely different value function - there’s no ceiling on what AI generates for them. No token price compression. Direct relationship with the developer means better lease economics. Ben said enterprises will likely pay “significantly better terms” than hyperscalers.

The closing statement:

“We have the best balance sheet we’ve ever had. The highest confidence we’ve ever had in our assets. The furthest progressed they’ve ever been. This is the most confident we’ve ever been as a team.”

Six months left in 2026.
Three leases in the chamber.
~$1B war chest.
Scrubgrass being funded ahead of schedule.

The market still hasn’t priced any of this in.

$KEEL 🏗️⚡

DYOR. NFA.

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@RJCcapital Goys gonna get slaughtered

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@PhotonBull Never enough

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@BlaDiamond6 @Billions777888 😂😂

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@nicaqs Looks like red this week. And green next week.

[Grayson @GraysonMayson12]

@thedamnintern @stocksaregoated @RJCcapital @citrini @CitronResearch Average clippers fan

[Ben Gagnon @CaptainKeel]

Small update:

We have now spoken with 129 investors since our Q1 earnings call on May 11.

For comparison in the entirety of 2025 we met with 168 investors. While we always strive to make ourselves accessible to investors, we have to pump the brakes on further investor calls.

Back to work Keel Crew.

[bryan @BryzonX]

I initiated a position in $BRKR

Here's my thesis:

At the core, what caught my attention was similar to my thesis around $VECO in which the complexity advanced packaging and next gen HBM now requires is demanding new tools for manufacturing these chips

Up until now, fabs grew by simply shrinking transistors on a flat, 2D piece of silicon (Moore’s Law)

Back then, traditional optical equipment could do the trick just fine but not anymore...

Now, because we cannot make transistors any smaller without running into severe physical limits, the entire industry is pivoting to vertical 3D stacking to get it done

Historically, Bruker specialized in high end physics and chemistry lab equipment. But they realized that the same fundamental physics used to inspect a molecule could be used to inspect a silicon wafer

So management saw the opportunity and made strategic pivots such as buying up niche market leaders right as advanced packaging was starting to appear on the horizon

One of these is even $VECO 's very own Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) business from Veeco in 2010 for $229.4 million in cash (nice little nugget)

For years, this sector within their business just generated steady, quiet revenue...

Now that Advanced Packaging and HBM has run directly into the exact physical bottlenecks that Bruker’s acquired portfolio was uniquely built to solve this division has now caught immense traction growing 20% YoY and is expected to accelerate

So where in the process does Bukers tools lay?

Since they have successfully built a diverse, deeply technical moat where they catch the foundry at every phase of the advanced packaging process they have a toll booth in many steps of the process

X-Ray Metrology

Shoots harmless X rays through the silicon layers to verify that the hidden wiring tunnels and small bumps inside the chip sandwich are perfectly formed

Atomic Force Microscopy

Uses a very thin needle only a few atoms wide to physically feel the wafer surface, ensuring it is flat enough to drop the next chip layer on top without any gaps

White Light Interferometry

Acts like a fast, 3D optical camera that uses light waves to rapidly scan millions of microscopic bumps and deep drill holes for layout defects in seconds

Nanomechanical Metrology

Physically pokes and scratches the microscopic layers of the chip with a diamond tip to test if the glue and metal bonds are strong enough to keep the stacked layers from peeling apart

TLDR: this company is very important to the entire chip manufacturing process to the giants such as $TSM , $MU , SK Hynix , Samsung, $INTC & more

As these companies build out billions of dollars in new advanced packaging plants globally, Bruker's four core tools are embedded right into the cleanroom blueprints

It isn't hard to wrap your head around how fast this division will be growing going forward

Here is where the alpha lies

Currently, their main lifesciences business makes up 90% of their sales and is in a deep trough (dragged down by temporary U.S. academic funding freezes and a soft China market) so the entire semi segment only makes up 10% of their sales

Underneath the hood management is aggressively cleaning up corporate costs while leaning into this high margin, hardware critical AI segment where they are currently gaining traction

Revenue hasn't hit the books yet, but the orders are already flowing in as it takes months to build, ship, and qualify these massive metrology systems

However, the leading indicator that i'm paying attention to is their book to bill ratio, which was above 1.0x for the third consecutive quarter proving demand is outpacing current supply...

You guys know I love my technicals as well.. and they look drop dead gorgeous

Following a major capitulation event, it has held up really well bouncing on a major uptrend and forming a double bottom while the moving averages are just starting to curl up 👀

I wanted to get this out to you guys earlier but this is a hot market, so look out for any dips for this name if you like what you hear to get positioned

I'm looking at this one as a tool booth company that benefits from the entire buildout of advanced packaging, this is also my intial thesis and will be added to along the way as I find more discovering

I would like to give a shoutout to @leveraged_cat for his now deleted post which triggered my research on this name (Give him a follow he's sharp)

NFA. DYOR.