Everyone is chasing the high-flying picks & shovels
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $INTC $MRVL are important, BUT ENERGY IS EVERYTHING. ⚡️
No power = no AI, no data centers, no next-gen tech.
And energy is down 10–30% 👀
$CEG $VST $LEU $TLN $GEV $BE
🚨 The Islamic Republic’s own security forces are struggling financially, exposing deep grievances within its ranks.
Even loyal security personnel are taking their grievances public, with videos exposing growing discontent from within the Islamic Republic’s own ranks.
This police officer, a third lieutenant who says he remains loyal to the Islamic Republic, admits his salary cannot even get him through the month as he eats a bare-bones dinner with colleagues.
That distinction is critical because these are not opposition activists. These are loyal security personnel openly admitting that the economic pressure is becoming unbearable.
The Islamic Republic ultimately depends on the police, Basij, IRGC and other security forces to repress unrest and keep the system in power. But loyalty becomes much harder to maintain when rank-and-file personnel cannot adequately feed and support themselves and their families.
This becomes especially dangerous as the Islamic Republic faces the prospect of renewed unrest at home and another escalation of war. Both would require enormous manpower, discipline, money and unquestioning loyalty from security forces already under growing economic pressure.
If the Islamic Republic can no longer keep the forces responsible for protecting it fed, paid and loyal, who will contain the next uprising or hold the system together during another war?
Here are 9 undervalued software stocks using our new 5Y advanced DCF calculator! Are you buying any of these?👇🧵
1) $CRM Salesforce
Current price: $259.63
5Y DCF fair value: $342.81 (32.0% undervalued)
I’ve never seen a market basically inform that it doesn’t like the person, the Fed Chairman himself. He is just, and easily, the most unlikable of Fed chairman, as indicated by bond market, since Volker.
Not my opinion, but an evidenced extrapolation of bond market voice!
With only 3 days left, August is ALSO likely to buck Midterm seasonal trend of delivering negative $SPX return
Would have to fall -3% in 3 days to turn red for month. Best of luck with that bears. You were warned in the Quant! September, however...
$SPY $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RSP $BTC $NYA $DIA $NVDA h/t @Bluekurtic
the MAGS now constitute a record 32.5% of S&P500 Earnings.
Even so, the MAGS market cap minus their earnings weighting was the lowest in history heading into Q2 earnings season, 3std deviations from the historic mean.
If ever there was/is a MAGS value opportunity...
$SPX $SPY $MAGS $QQQ $NDX $MSFT $AAPL $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA $META $TSLA $MSFT $DIA
$META is going all in on AI agents they plan to launch their consumer AI agents in the coming weeks.
This is part of the reason they are spending heavy on compute.👇
For 18 months everyone said AI would kill software.
Then Salesforce, ServiceNow, Okta, Palantir, MongoDB all accelerated CRPO. NVIDIA guided $108B.
New pod on why the trade was wrong.
Apple: https://t.co/ojn8H9GeiD
$VST | HUGE OPPORTUNITY ⚡️
CEO is buying.
Peter Thiel is buying.
David Tepper is adding.
Nancy Pelosi is holding.
@amitisinvesting sees the opportunity.
Leif Invests is buying.
The Vistra Thesis: ⚡️
AI/data centers are driving rising electricity demand, tightening power markets, boosting power prices and utilization of Vistra’s existing fleet, while acquisitions and contracted PPAs help meet growing demand and support higher EBITDA.
$VST trades at just ~8× 2027E EV/EBITDA, well below my estimate of fair value.
Management also plans to update guidance next quarter following its $META PPA agreement and Cogentrix acquisition closing.
(NFA) 👇
Strong Buy / Overweight ⚡️
🎯Base Price Target: $215
($8.25B ’27E EBITDA | 11× EV/EBITDA)
📈 ~50% Upside
$VST