Hewitt Heiserman

Author, “It’s Earnings That Count." Next book: "Expected Value: How Superinvestors Decide." Hint: ((BPT - SP) x COS) / ((SP - bPT) x COF) ≥ 3x. 🌲

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@NewConstructs @ChuckJaffe @iShares @theRealDTrain37 @Vijay_Hedges To quote the late Steve Irwin, "Crikey!"

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@MebFaber Does GAAP penalize U.S. stocks relative to the rest of the world? https://t.co/PJFKzL6qB9

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@IFB_podcast These ratios are what others believe about a co's outlook. Also include a DCF, which reflect what you believe about prices, unit sales, gross profit margin, SG&A, R&D, taxes, capex, investment in WC, and WACC. That's valuation. Then as you learn new info, you update.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@ProofOfMoney @LorenHodl TR would have liked that aerial perspective

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

Time stamp this for 2036: $BRK.A $BRK.B has $325B of UST’s. Meanwhile, there's just $80B of bitcoin:native left to mine at today’s price. In theory, new CEO Greg Able can buy the last 920,000 coins and still have $245B of (chronic spendthrift) U.S. debt. He should.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@CaffeSatoshi Good visual. Perhaps use the left y-axis to show block rewards and add a right y- to show cum. supply. Then the supply increases at just 0.04% CAGR for the next 114 years is even more dramatic. The point: bitcoin:native 's supply doesn't respond to its price.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@Handre Your tweets are always informative. You should write a book

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@MebFaber @MIT Meb - MIT pranksters once put a car on top of that dome. Another time they did this https://t.co/H72c4H42GG. Disclosure: My late father-in-law taught there.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@Theron_Mohamed Munger's all-time most helpful comment of many is: "We look for a horse with one chance in two of winning and which pays you three to one.” That's his stock hurdle rate: an expected value multiple of ≥ 3x.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@IIICapital Esp. for fixed income assets like UST's, this is a nominal estimate. The real return will be less unless our economy flips to deflation from its current inflation.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@ProofOfMoney @MWBTCSummit @bensig Brilliant, Terence. Deserves a trophy

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@cryptoreine @avax clever funny

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@zzeker @porterstansb @Porter_and_Co Mark - Don't know about divs and leadership. But I think I know Mr. B's personality well enough to say he's generously told Greg, "Do what you need to do. Conditions change and BRK must, as well. It's your canvas now."

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

If Greg Abel, Howie Buffett, and Susan Decker want to make $BRK.A $BRK.B great again (like the kinds of co's Warren and Charlie sought), they should pay @porterstansb @Porter_and_Co some A shares to explain at the next directors' meeting when and how the sprawling Omaha conglomerate diworsified. If you own Berkshire, reading "Warren's Mistakes" is a must. @herbgreenberg @DougKass

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

Since 2011, $BRK's return on capital has averaged a ho-hum ~10%/year, https://t.co/7VoUPMKIaY. Now that Abel is in charge, he should distribute 1) 80% of the $380 billion in cash and equivalents, 2) $300 billion of marketable securities, and 3) insurance and its $177 billion float. Then laser focus on the railroad, energy, and Precision Castparts. A smaller, leaner, more nimble BRK is a better BRK.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@RonBaronAnalyst is always @SquawkCNBC's most interesting and inspiring guest. Please share a transcript of your fascinating conversation @andrewrsorkin @JoeSquawk @BeckyQuick.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

@Truecrypto plus $100 trillion in SS and Medicare if we wrote today a check to pay in full our nominal liability for the next 75 years

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

The smart money sold their 10-year paper because the semi-annual interest rate (coupon) lags inflation. "Reward-free risk," as Grant's Interest Rate Observe's James Grant has described.

[Hewitt Heiserman @HewittHeiserman]

Only a little more than six years ago the fixed income market was willing to pay 200 times earnings (annualized interest) for the 10-year UST. Now, the P/E is 20 times the coupon (1 / 0.05), which works out to a rerating of minus 90 percent. Brutal.