Jonathan Boyles

Actuary by trade. Just one of billions, trying to do my part to make our world better for the billions more to follow.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

The difference between the parties' national and state margins over the last 100 years. Started and ended with extreme polarization (many states w/ over 10% partisan lean) and relatively nonpartisan in between.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@grok @David_Moscrop @grok on a scale of 1 to 10 how obvious were the negative impacts of the hole in the ozone then versus those of climate change now and on a scale of 1 to 10 how easy were the fixes for the ozone then versus those for climate change now in terms of impact on people’s lives.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@grok @Checkmate_59 @GavinNewsom What about public higher education, not public education broadly.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@STEVEWA10865446 @glennmichael999 @JamesLucasIT Who’d they cheat with?

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@D_W_Lee @realDonaldTrump Yes. I much prefer a later sunset. Where I am, the shortest day of the year has sunrise at 7:50am and sunset at 4:40pm. I’d trade that for 8:50am and 5:40pm in a heartbeat. But more importantly, I love late daylight in the summer, which would be a tragedy to lose.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@ZVR09 Based on my understanding, that would not replace the current level of tax receipts. You would need to increase the effective tax rate for those making more than $50k.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@JohnBoudet @CoKeynesian I don’t agree. It’s like saying adding more college football coaches would give coaches more time at home.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@LilandMats @Nate_Cohn How do they know her favorability rating compared to Trump’s?

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@DeborahCorff @Hillsdale That’s precisely the case against it. Because the current system causes people to correctly assess that their votes do not matter. Without the EC, every vote matters.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@legitbrittFLA @_jess_lopez @NateSilver538

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@Statlawyer @zestyne3 @SpencerHakimian @NateSilver538 "Recently passed laws have really sped up the counting process in Georgia. Counties are now required to report early votes and absentee votes that are received before Election Day by 8 p.m. Eastern."

https://t.co/WXc98oDiB5

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@MarkMcHughWY @Needed2ReadPost @ProjectLincoln https://t.co/YFTH1QU99l

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@sporadica I agree, except get rid of standard time and keep the clocks on DST year-round.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@theangrytacoz @LKrauss1 https://t.co/oJBxCzPRDe

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@stantradingman @UAW This is the longest video I can post. He’s talking about putting large tariffs on imported goods, and mentions current factories the EU has in the US.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@matthewjdowd Obama had an electoral college advantage against Romney. In contrast, Trump had an EC advantage against both Clinton and Biden.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@MikeNellis "Trump has no path to victory without PA."

Wisconsin or Michigan. Biden's margin was 0.63% in Wisconsin vs. 1.40% in Pennsylvania. And in 2016, Trump's margin was 0.77% in Wisconsin vs. 0.72% in Pennsylvania. I.e. Wisconsin has been more red than Pennsylvania.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@fulhaminky @FrankLuntz @NateSilver538 The question is, how much uncertainty is intrinsic in the event, and how much is owing to our lack of understanding. I could create a model that estimates the season based only on the noon temperature reading and location, for example. It would be decently explanatory.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@fulhaminky @FrankLuntz @NateSilver538 The problem people have is that, at least this year, it isn't particularly useful in terms of predicting an outcome. The "best" model in the world would give the winning candidate 100% every time. More importantly, it would do so when it isn't obvious without said model.

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@catrathustra @fulhaminky @FrankLuntz @NateSilver538 You'd have to establish a metric for "better" and test a null hypothesis. You'd need several more I'd say. Since 2012 his standard error is lower (better) than a coin flip average (around 80-90th percentile, i.e. better than 7/8 coin flips).

[Jonathan Boyles @JBinSF]

@EricLDaugh @StatisticUrban Everyone likes to look at the indicators that help them feel better about the upcoming election. Regardless, we will *hopefully* know who wins by this time next month.