Julien Mathonnière

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Brad_Setser @threadreaderapp unroll please

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Brad_Setser @threadreaderapp unroll please

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@staunovo from Monte Paterno or nearby...? Bellissimi.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@guygrieve If this is East Coast, could that be Bass Rock behind you?

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin Opec looks at S+D while market is transfixed by macro. Opec wants to tighten more b/c China’s demand impulse is too weak. But market interprets Opec cuts as confirmation of weaker demand and flips back fast to macro selloff, the dead-cat bounce lasting less every time. Catch-22.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@staunovo Thanks for re-sharing, Giovanni.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@clementlefert Sadly more revealing of the scale of energy illiteracy and ideological bias among French MPs than of Pouyanné’s frank style. Also worrying that said MPs are more concerned about fake stats on foreign countries than cheap and secure energy supply to the taxpayers who elected them.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@ed_fin @BurggrabenH @INArteCarloDoss Sorry for asking a bit candidly but how can you do that: "back-dating loading?"

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin @Rodoro16 @i_y_twit @ed_fin I think the bottom line is: these are unprecedented times for crude flows, which call for unprecedented solutions. My hunch is that middlemen will be creative. The market always finds solutions, doesn't it? Using precedents as a guide to what they may do can only be misleading.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin @TraderCommo If the deal is effectively done, Lukoil will get exactly what it wanted: recover the initial $1.5bn it paid to the Garrone family in 2008 when it acquired its stake. Alekperov was adamant about getting that back and tell the shareholders before he left. Lukoil may finally get it.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@IliaBouchouev Very interesting, but why does it seem to be bearish on physical market too (look at non-sanctionned sour crude CPC diffs)? I mean, the world is still short of diesel and refiners need to run Urals alternatives at full throttle.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin @Markets87700133 Some refiners said a while ago that the reason why Forties and Sverdrup diffs had fallen was because buyers were front-loading other grades (including Urals) ahead of the EU ban and "crowding out" Forties. That could be the case again now that the deadline looms closer.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin Not an insurmountable obstacle, then. Thanks for the explanations.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin I hear from refiners that Russian diesel was key to correct other winter diesels in the European middle distillate pool, owing to its excellent cold properties. Do you think other diesels will be suitable for winter without this traditional Russian diesel "tweaking"?

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@ARaj_Energy Neither is energy rationing.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin @PMroil 3/3 Volatility rarely entices investors into long lead projects like building or modernizing a refinery when the cost of capital is subject to wild price gyrations and ESG headwinds await further down the line. But it damages demand, for sure.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin @PMroil 2/3 Unlike the Fed, it is not a single entity but rather the “invisible” hand of the mkt doing it. And more volatility can certainly help dent demand. This mkt is not short of crude but of refining capacity. Pb is: volatility can fix demand but not capacity.

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin @PMroil 1/3 This is a really interesting point. Some fixed income strategists surmise that the US Fed may wilfully pursue demand destruction via negative wealth effects (rates hikes, higher volatility) to hurt demand and fend off inflation. How about volatility doing the same with oil?

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin I mean, better than landlocked refiners in Central Europe that were over reliant on Urals pipeline deliveries. I remember Saras boasted of being able to draw from a pool of 60 different crudes, and Repsol from about 45 crudes. Obviously, they must be good at blending, right?

[Julien Mathonnière @JMathonniere]

@Big_Orrin The ban on Russian oil is testing refiners skills at blending crudes they are less familiar with, and some are obviously better at it than others. Is it fair to say that refiners who had already broadened their crude slate before IMO are better at blending?