UPGRADE! A SEVERE or G4 geomagnetic storm is now predicted by the Space Weather Prediction Center ! This *could* bring widespread auroral displays to the United States *if* things ensue as modeled. This is anticipated TONIGHT, Monday night, January 19!
We are awaiting a magnetic shockwave called a CME, or coronal mass ejection. A NASA model shows the CME may be stronger, and faster, than originally modeled, meaning it could slam Earth's magnetic field around 8 p.m. Eastern time Monday night. That impact will spark auroral displays.
The northern U.S. may see some colors overhead, primarily green and/or purple, whereas areas to the south might notice a reddish or green glow on the northern horizon. The colors won't appear quite as vibrant to your eyes as they do on camera, but an impressive display remains possible.
NOTE: there remains uncertainty regarding the timing, and realistically the impact could ensue any time within 6 hours either side of that time frame.
Also note that, while we believe the CME will hit Earth, a more glancing blow can't be ruled out. That would reduce impacts.
This is all associated with an X2-class solar flare, which launched off the sun around 11:09 a.m. Eastern time Sunday. It originated from sunspot 4341, a large, bruise-like discoloration on the surface of the sun throbbing and pulsating with magnetic energy. It's also a cooler region on the sun's surface.
Solar flares are flashes of light and electromagnetic radiation that expel high-energy particles through space at the speed of light. This particular flare caused a degradation of radio wave propagation and partial radio blackout over western South America and the eastern South Pacific.
The flare was followed by a CME, or coronal mass ejection, accompanied the flare. CMEs are slower waves of magnetism and ejected solar plasma that surf through space like a shockwave. They take a couple days to reach Earth (when they’re Earth-directed). Stronger ones are usually faster.
CMEs interact with Earth’s magnetic field, which transforms potentially harmful energy and magnetism into visible light — the aurora.
This CME is set to reach us within about 36 hours, which is very fast. That means a heftier impact.
Isolated yourself from city lights and find a clear, unobstructed view of the northern horizon. Check the weather forecast first too... and stay tuned here for updates.
Also note that we do NOT HAVE A SPECIFIC TIME. Space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, and timing your observation with the occurrence of an auroral “substorm” is purely a game of luck. 10 p.m. Eastern time/9 p.m. Central may be a good time to attempt viewing.
@kareem_carr Im wondering if under this framework, multi author publications count as peer reviewed, or does the reviewer have to be external to the process of creating the science?
“I am the Ghost of Christmas Future Imperfect Conditional” said the Spirit. “I bring news of what would have been going to happen, if you were not to have been going to change your ways.”
@MatthewCappucci I'm trying to understand the semi-truck one. Did the semi get toppled by an invisible tornado, or is that coincidental/affected by nearby high winds.
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What's missing?
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Feel free to ask for info!