James Morgan

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Real disposable income growth per capita has turned negative. This was already low before US/Iran.

The consumer story is deteriorating.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The option market has never been more bullish on chips, or more bearish on gold

[Macro Charts @MacroCharts]

"One of the clearest setups in years."

The race is on...

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

BCA’s MacroQuant model triggered a rare “emergency sell” signal.
Source: @PeterBerezinBCA

[Armin Hartl @Armin_Hartl]

Mohnish Pabrai's accumulation of $RIG shares continues.

Last week the number of shares owned by Wagons ETF increased by 21% after last weeks growth of 14%.

Interestingly, Mongolian Mining was reduced in the first met coal sale on record.

[Rob Anderson @_rob_anderson]

The back half of June has tended to be bearish for stocks, with the S&P 500’s median return ranking as the second lowest among all half-month periods since 1950. However, the first half of July has historically been the strongest half-month block.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

It gets worse: the grid connection requests active at the end of 2023 were more than double the total installed capacity of the US power plant fleet (2,600 GW vs. 1,280 GW). It's well more than 3,000 GW.

There will be $trillions in semiconductor paperweights over the next decade

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

"Happy Meme-Day"
GM Fintwit!
I made the morning note mostly free because the memes were too good 🥹🌳🙏
https://t.co/6iSfksk465

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

France’s EDF warned that it may be forced to curb nuclear energy output due to higher river temperatures 🇫🇷 ☢️

Production restrictions could take place from June 15 for two days at the Saint-Alban nuclear site. Hotter weather risks tightening French power supply this summer

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

Imagine firing half your employees for an AI model, then the kill switch gets hit with no warning.

[Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) @NuggetCapital]

Nuttall back into the Baytex, right at the top.

You can't make this up.

Some things never change in the oil trade.

$BTE.TO $BTE #TheBaytex #Baytex @BaytexEnergy

[Chris in Canada 🍁 @tsxman]

$Hr.un down 2.9% on Blackstone update. One of the biggest vol days of all time. Net buyer from block buyers. Probably small lot guys were mostly retail running for hill before "Tom fumbles it again." Most bagholders and hot money flushed here imho. Very excited for next steps.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

was expecting Singaporean fuel inventories to bounce back this week given the sharpness of last week's draw

😬 instead they just kept plunging...

[Jim Panzee @Ozard_OfWiz]

no signal at "A", docile red snake at "B"
all calm so far

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

75% feels like backsliding...

[Jim Panzee @Ozard_OfWiz]

"C" at 700 would be my preferable scenario

[Nick Jones @Grainjones]

Two absolute legends in regard to bad faith negotiations squaring off

[Jim Panzee @Ozard_OfWiz]

there are reasons for each line and its been good to me for more than 10 years
its tactical crunch time now

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Gonna go out on a limb and say that there's still some room between Tehran and Washington.

Almost like it's the same exact points of disagreement as have always been.

Iran MOU provisions // US MOU provisions

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Consistent feedback from trading desks has been that geopolitical volatility had paralyzed generalist funds from deploying and that at least in Canada, meaningful sidelined buying power exists, waiting for "the day after." The investment thesis was never the spike to $150+ on tank bottoms and the depletion of the US SPR, it was then and remains now a sector discounting ~$65WTI with what we think will be a fundamental floor of ~$80 given:
🛢️record low inventories that will continue to fall further (regional tank bottoms + US SPR at/near operational minimum levels)
🛢️~0.45MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 3 years to restock depleted inventory + likelihood of increases to SPR targets
🛢️productive capacity challenges with 80% of most production coming online within 1-4 months but "the last 20% is the hardest" = >2MM Bbl/d
🛢️A Strait of Hormuz under IRGC control will never return to pre-war levels and partial workarounds will take years
🛢️ Reasonable to think some element of a political risk premium?!?
🛢️$74WTI = yellow light now for US shale? Inventory challenges only accentuated under growth mode
🛢️pre-UAE joining the non-OPEC ranks, non-OPEC production was forecasted to be peaking in 2026
🛢️pre-war, UAE adjusted, OPEC spare capacity was only ~1.35MM Bbl/d half of that is 100% reliant on the SofH