Tổng kết tuần 4 - tháng 3:
Hiện tại: $3730 (+774)
Tuần này có khá nhiều sự kiện của Trump, nhưng không thu hoạch được gì nhiều.
Rút kinh nghiệm, bet ít lại và tập trung vào high conviction bet.
Tuần sau sẽ có sự kiện Easter day hứa hẹn sẽ nhiều Volume.
No one will tell you about this strategy on @Polymarket
> The strategy is to use Kalshi and Polymarket at the same time. Let me explain with a specific example
You place $1000 on Kalshi for a win – the payout is $1070, profit = $70. You then use that potential $70 profit to bet on a loss – the payout is $1272
➤ So the worst outcome is break-even, and in case of a loss, your pure profit is $272. Brilliant, isn’t it?
There are plenty of such bets out there, try finding them and earning risk-free
Big thanks to @ProMint_X
$200 → $1,000 Polymarket Challenge | Day 1
today i entered two league of legends markets
both bets on T1 to win worlds 2025
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) → $40 on T1 at $0.63 (potential return: $63.49)
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? → $30 on YES at $0.63 (potential return: $47.62)
$130 left in free balance
why T1
the fundamentals are clear
• T1 have won worlds multiple times, this is their 4th final in a row
• KT are reaching their first worlds final ever
• T1 lead the head to head 26-6 since 2020
• gumayusi-keria bot lane is objectively stronger than kt's
plus the smart money is leaning T1
one whale with an insane track record in esports just placed a large bet on them
smart score also favors T1 traders
this is risky
kt are peaking right now and just eliminated the tournament favorite
finals are unpredictable
but this challenge is about reaching $1k as fast as possible with the fewest trades
so im taking calculated risks backed by research
daily updates coming
follow if you want to see how this plays out
THE POLYMARKET LEGENDS - @ Sirius-C
Joined Polymarket in January 2025.
Only 86 views on his profile.
But one trade made him legend!
He found the market "Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?"
Put $1,318 on (No) at 9¢ while the crowd went the other way.
When it settled, the call hit perfectly.
His $1,318 >>> $147,000 (10,992% gain)
A quiet entry, one market, one insane read.
That’s how legends appear on @polymarket
Addres: 0x0f5801f1fe7dbadb5c1e92a310c9871447d90ff0
His profile: https://t.co/PazqBmU437
A completely unsaturated market on Polymarket is the "Bitcoin up or down" 15 min.
Every 15 min you get a price to beat, in this screenshot: $101,747. So you can bet up if you think the price will be higher, or bet down if you think it will be lower.
At the start of the bet, on the 15 min left mark, it should be a breakeven bet (50/50). However, the odds are 51/51, which equals 1.96 in odds on both sides. So far, so good.
But after following quite a few of these 15 minute bets over time, I noticed that the odds is completely skewed. Take a look at the screenshot again:
To beat: $101,747
Current price: $101,501
Odds: 12c (8.26 decimal). (The screenshot says 8c, but with $100 size it gives 12c).
If we use 12c, it means that there is a 88% probability this won't happen. Again, at the 15 min mark this should be 50/50. But with 5 min left, and the fact that the current price is 0,2% lower than "price to beat" maybe the correct odds should be 65/35, or even 70/30. But here you are getting paid 88/12, which is massively +EV, and is a bet you should take any day of the week.
Several ways to go about this:
-You could try to hedge on both sides. For example if you captured the 8.26 odds, you could try to capture 1.30 (77c) on the other side if it swings back for a 12,3% sure win. Use a sure win calc for the math: https://t.co/aN1nLLNWf5
-You could do the naked bet (only playing the 8.26 odds) and hope that you win. Capturing these kind of bets will make you a winner long term at least. Use Kelly criterion or if you are max degen a 1/10 Martingale (oops, you may end up broke).
They have this kind of market for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. 99% sure this kind of market will be saturated soon, so if you are a fresh Polymarket player, go here to farm volume. Only possible with small bet sizes: $50-$200.
Best strategy for people with small deposit on Polymarket
I tried farming rewards by providing liquidity on Polymarket. In just half an hour, I earned $6 on a $90 investment. That's 122,640% APY.
How It Works:
In the Rewards tab, you can see numerous markets where you can place limit orders with specific conditions to earn rewards.
It's important to respect the max spread and min shares. The less competition and higher rewards, the more you'll earn.
My case: today I captured 50% of the market with $150 in rewards. That's a lot.
How I Select Markets:
– Sort all markets by reward amount. I look at the 'competition' scale. If there are only 1-2 bars, I study the market more carefully. It's important to me that there isn't too much liquidity in the price range I need. I skip 0 bars.
– Skip markets with too much spread. Your order might fill at an unfavorable price, forcing you to sell at a loss.
– Skip illiquid markets. If my order fills, I won't be able to sell the shares to anyone.
– Markets with tight spreads (1-3) are good picks. I look for the right price to buy. I try to place my orders second or third in the order book so they don't fill first.
– Place orders at existing price levels. If I see someone opened an order at $0.35 for $50, I'll place my order at that same price. I do this so if someone wants to sell at $0.35, their order fills faster and with higher probability than mine.
– Open orders on 20-30 markets simultaneously to earn rewards from everywhere.
– Check each order frequently to make sure it's not approaching the mid price and getting filled unexpectedly.
– Always use only half my balance for orders. This ensures that if one order fills, the other orders don't get canceled and continue farming.
– Check notifications constantly to see if any of my orders filled unexpectedly.
– Always check market end dates. If a market ends in less than 24 hours, be careful—you could lose money.
– Avoid highly volatile markets. You can also lose money on those.
These are my core principles that I use. Hope this was helpful!
From $7 to $178K in just 3 months.
A quiet grinder who’s mastered @Polymarket with 533 predictions and unmatched consistency.
Current plays:
→ Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings? - NO
https://t.co/NT2vABtEOE
→ Xi Jinping out by end of 2026? - NO
https://t.co/MBHNememwf
Pure data conviction no hype, no hesitation, just systematic profit.
1 kèo khá ổn áp cho ae.
> Trump tuyên bố boat strike trước 07/11
> Không đọc kỹ luật dễ hiểu nhầm
> “Strike” ở đây định nghĩa theo luật là sử dụng bom từ trên không, máy bay không người lái, pháo hải quân, pháo binh hoặc tên lửa.
> Bắt thuyền bt sẽ không tính
Mua NO ở 50c
Bought $1 for $0.95 on @Polymarket, basically risk-free
While I was farming LP rewards, I spotted a big inefficiency. It’s about the market “What will Meta (META) hit in November 2025?”
Last trading session closed with stock at $648
But there were still open markets for <740, <720, <700, <670
Why? Because the market was set specifically for November, and the stock market closure happened in October
Now the market just reopened and META is trading around $655, yet Polymarket hasn’t priced it in, you can still grab “Yes” shares at $0.99
I bought everything i could with the cash I had on the platform and honestly, you might wanna do the same
Money glitches every day
Link is below 👇
Copy these Top 3 Polymarket traders to make money:
1. Cry.eth2
https://t.co/jiohhA8UjW
Entered 5-10¢ markets and exited on 90-99¢
Recent position:
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? YES
https://t.co/BPKicckwaU
2. Bobe2
https://t.co/g8G137GLs1
Predicts events with almost 90%
Recent position:
Will Base launch a token in 2025? NO
https://t.co/z1JMzFt9vG
3. LucasMeow
https://t.co/ZjJcAN1mML
Safe bets, 95% win rate
Recent position:
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? NO
https://t.co/9gx49bLrfS
Day 345: A clear example of a mispriced bet on Polymarket.
The Pumpfun airdrop before Dec 31 market is currently trading at 50%, but most people overlook the Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition market which also trades at 50% odds.
That second market resolves to NO if any of the following airdrops happen before Dec 31:
>Base airdrop airdrop
> Metamask airdrop
> Opensea airdrop
> Pumpfun airdrop
This creates two interesting plays:
1�� If you think Pumpfun will airdrop, buying NO on “Nothing Ever Happens” is smarter.
Even if https://t.co/0KRTQKktvR doesn’t, but one of the others does, you still win.
2️⃣ Hedged strategy: Buy NO on both “https://t.co/0KRTQKktvR airdrop” and “Nothing Ever Happens.”
If none of the airdrops happen, you break even.
If any one of them does, you earn ~50% ROI with no downside risk.
Thử thách cày Polymarket từ $300 lên $10,000
Ngày 2: $550 (+$193)
> Vẫn tập trung vào đặt lệnh Limit buy sớm để có vị thế đẹp ở các kèo tuần.
> Các lệnh nhỏ từ $20-$50
> Bán khi đủ target +50-100%.
> Tìm các kèo dễ biến động, có thể mua dưới 1c và đặt lệnh bán ở 2-2,5c
potential polymarket airdrop criterias
>trading volume
>$50K+ could place you in the top ~1.7-2% of users; aim for consistent small bets ($100+) daily to build steadily
>profit and loss
>$1,000+ PnL might rank in the top ~0.5%; win rate could factor in
>Liquidity Provision
>Provide liquidity in qualifying markets on times events like gta 6 release or aliens
>Activity Consistency
>Trade across multiple prediction markets; aim for activity on different days
>these are all speculations, don't farm, just interact