Julius Probst, PhD 🌐

Senior economist @Appcast/Stepstone. PhD @LundUniversity. Stint @ECB. Macro/econ history wonk, blogger, wannabe stoic, chess hobbyist, Scifi nerd. Views my own.

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

The business cycle is (mostly) driven by fluctuations in NGDP. Nominal income is nothing more than velocity adjusted money (M*V). It’s the Central Bank’s job to react to changes in M and V and therefore keep NGDP growing on a stable path. This is the most neutral monetary policy

[L @lamiisaaaa]

A job that requires you to be in the office 4 days a week is NOT hybrid.

[Neil Stone @DrNeilStone]

This week a major breakthrough was announced in cancer research.

Scientists created a drug that doubles survival in pancreatic cancer

This guy tells people to eat raw chicken

[KangusBangus @KangusB3]

No boomer has ever applied to 500 jobs and gotten 5 emails back and 2 interviews and no employment.

They do not understand the world that we live in. They cannot understand it, that would shatter their world view. They reflexively call you lazy to protect their view of reality.

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

@mjmatthews000 @dHubert_duels @ukboomers @JonH1215651 He doesn’t even speak English

[Steve McCormick @Quasilocal]

Strange game to play, but ok?

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

@asymmetricinfo @secondorderfx The big advantage of the air to water heat pump is that it’s not just hot water for the heating system via radiators, it’s also hot water for the house (shower, taps), it’s a dual use system eliminating gas entirely

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

We are so far into "mad king" territory that the White House may not even bother to clarify whether Trump just confused Oman with Iran or is indeed threatening to bomb Oman

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

😂😂😂

[Tweet is the Work 🌷 @NoblestCalling]

Fahrenheit is superior because it's basically telling you what % hot it is

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

Omg, they are used for heating radiators (via a a hot water tank), completely different system

[m ˖*°࿐ @mariaria14]

britain is finally becoming a real island

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

🤡🤡🤡

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@paulg Hitler was also left, just a different type of left. Hardcore socialist.

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

@BAYC5511 @LinkofSunshine @CantEverDie The Michigan index is broken (conference board is better: https://t.co/5AoCOnuVe4), also soft/survey based data is inferior to hard economic data

[camilo @AscendedYield]

nice

[The Notorious S.E.B. @bigseb31213]

modern monetary theory people don't even talk about MMT anymore, they just look at you like this

(postwar rationing was so unpopular that 5% of the UK's entire population emigrated, mostly to Canada, Australia, South Africa, and the US)

[Josh Barro @jbarro]

The hotel union and the hotel owners worked together to get the city to ban new hotels. Hotel rates soared, and now labor and capital are dividing up the rents collected.

[Jeremy Horpedahl 🥚📉 @jmhorp]

"But the data center will only create a few hundred jobs"

How many jobs was the vacant lot creating?

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

@JeremyWS @pdegrauwe Lol, this is basically irrelevant for the debt burden. interest rate burden UK ~3.6% of GDP, France ~2.5% with roughly similar debt level

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

There are about a dozen BOE speeches on how nominal wage growth in the UK has been a clear international outlier between 2022-25 and how the BOE had to tighten monetary policy in response. But sure, all of this has clearly had zero impact on employment

[Arin Dube @arindube]

A good way to screen out unserious people is by their use of selective correlations.

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

@arindube what this fails to mentions is that for several UK regions the minimum wage is much higher than 2/3 because of high interregional inequality. Lots of recruiters, our clients, telling me that the high ceiling + wage compression are a massive problem, career ladder basically dead

[Julius Probst, PhD 🌐 @JuliusProbst]

@rcolvile @Starcourse @adamboultonTABB So a few months ago I downloaded the quarterly GDP data for the last 25 years or so, the outperformance of Q1 over the other quarters is not statistically significant at any level. It might just be coincidence.