Just Foreign Policy

Working to reform U.S. foreign policy by mobilizing the majority of Americans who want a foreign policy based on diplomacy, law and cooperation.

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

NEW: Dozens of groups urge Congress to "use the legal and political tools" to defend the historic Iran War Powers Resolution

@JustFP was proud to co-lead with @DemandProgress @BrennanCenter

Great to see @RepGregoryMeeks moving forward with efforts to take White House to court

[CSPAN @cspan]

.@RepGregoryMeeks (D-NY) says he will try to sue the Trump administration for not adhering to the Iran war powers resolution: "We can now go to the courts and sue the administration for not following the will of Congress."

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

Murphy claims to want a peace deal, but he's using the same hawkish talking points as anti-diplomacy voices on Fox News

Most harmful is his attack on the funds Iran would get, when they're a small fraction of what Iran suffered in losses from bombing, as @Rob_Malley explains

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

Full court press to undermine a peace deal to end the Iran war

Fox News is telling viewers that Iran is making "new" and "highly unlikely demands"

The demands are simply a return to the US-Iran MOU that Trump already signed, now that there's clarity around shipping routes

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

Dems who want war to end should demand that Trump return to MOU

"Iran isn't actually setting out to make a final deal with the U.S. harder to achieve.... [The SNSC] statement reflects that a consensus for pragmatic engagement persists among senior Iranian leaders"
-@yarbatman

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

US implenents MOU in good faith
⤵️
Iran war ends

"The six demands are essentially a restatement of key articles of the MOU"
"The MOU set out the basic structure of a political viable and technically feasible comprehensive agreement and Iran is insisting on its implementation"

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

This new statement from Iran's Supreme National Security Council makes clear that "the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until America corrects its behavior." It then sets out six conditions for the reopening of the strait. A lot of reporting has described these as "new" demands. But that is a misreading.

The SNSC statement sits squarely within the framework set out by the U.S.-Iran MOU. The six demands are essentially a restatement of key articles of the MOU. This is a constructive and encouraging signal.

Condition 1 states that the U.S. should "never threaten Iran in any language, nor insult this nation's sanctities." This condition aligns with Article 2 of the MOU, which states that the "Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs."

Condition 2 states that the U.S. should "permanently end the war and aggression against Iran and Iran's allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq." This is a restatement of Article 1 of the MOU, which calls for "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." The SNSC statement just stipulates that those fronts include Yemen, Palestine, and Iraq.

Condition 3 states that the U.S. will "lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from Iran's surroundings." Similar language is in Article 4 of the MOU. That article commits the U.S. to "fully end the naval blockade" and "remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Condition 4 states that the U.S. should "pay in full, without deduction, the damages of the two aggressive wars imposed on Iran." This is a somewhat more definitive articulation of Article 6 of the MOU, which commits the U.S. to develop a plan for the "reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Condition 5 and 6 call for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. These commitments are included in Articles 7 and 11 of the MOU.

Overall, the SNSC is calling for the full implementation of the MOU as a precondition for fully opening the strait. This is a far more constructive approach than it is being made out to be. Rather than add new, maximalist demands given the failure of the Trump administration to implement the MOU, Iran's leaders are basically giving Trump a second chance to make good on promises he has already made in the Islamabad Memorandum.

Making clear that the Strait of Hormuz won't open until there is a comprehensive agreement is a kind of commitment mechanism. Trump will only walk away from this war if he can claim he won, but he won't be able to do that if traffic in the strait remains depressed. So Iran's leaders are using the reopening of the strait as a kind of commitment mechanism. This is a strategy mainly built around political logic, not economic leverage, which would anyway require Iran to keep traffic in the strait as close to zero as possible. That's not what's happening.

How can the Trump administration trust that Iran actually wants a deal? Well, it is the only party that has actually shown in the last six weeks that it is willing to take steps towards correct implementation of the MOU. Article 5 commits Iran to "conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz." That is precise what Iran has done.

The Iran-Oman deal that is shaping up on a new TSS will allow a modest recovery in vessel traffic through the strait. That is a move by Iran to help give regional countries some relief and to boost credibility in its own diplomacy.

So Iran isn't actually setting out to make a final deal with the U.S. harder to achieve. Iran could have made much more expansive and extreme demands—why not make reopening of the strait contingent on certain actions taken by Israel, for example?

The SNSC is a body in which policy is set by consensus. This statement reflects that a consensus for pragmatic engagement persists among senior Iranian leaders. The MOU set out the basic structure of a political viable and technically feasible comprehensive agreement and Iran is insisting on its implementation.

However, Iran taking a constructive approach doesn't mean that getting a deal is going to be easy. We have to recognize the significant degree of incompetence, dysfunction, and distraction within the White House. There are a lot of things that are easy for most world leaders that are nonetheless hard for Trump and his cabinet. This is why they fumbled implementation of the MOU six weeks ago.

My hope is that regional countries will be given even more responsibility to get a final deal over the line.

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

In February, the war began. And this month, she heard the angst creep into Sergeant Swinton’s voice. “When I did see him on videos, he just looked so tired,” Ms. Swinton said. “And he would tell me he wanted to come home so bad.”

https://t.co/lkh0RBxyKt

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

End the death and destruction — not one more US troop or Iranian civilian killed!

Troops home NOW!
Peace deal NOW!

(Depicted: Wife of 30-year-old Staff Sgt. Michael Swinton, killed in the Iran war, Fayetteville Airport)

[Ryan Costello @RyeCostello]

Officials raised “the potential for massive civilian casualties inside Iran if the US resumed major combat operations” in a late July meeting, per this report.

Trump has threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran multiple times - what toll did they anticipate?

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

Trump signed a ceasefire with Yemeni leader al-Houthi 15 months ago — both US & Yemen have honored it

US should now facilitate talks between Riyadh & Sanaa to avoid further needless bloodshed and turn the unresolved decade-long Saudi-Yemen conflict into a final peace settlement

[Mark Weisbrot @MarkWeisbrot]

Many thanks to @repdeliaramirez -- this could be Trump's next war, partly also to distract from the Iran war; unless Congress makes it too politically costly for Trump and his Party

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

@repdeliaramirez Thank you @RepDeliaRamirez!

The suffering Cuban people deserve at least a basic House Cuba War Powers vote when Congress returns from recess

@RepJeffries @WhipKClark @HouseDemocrats @RepGregoryMeeks @HouseForeign @RepMcGovern @RulesDemocrats @TLHumanRights @NydiaVelazquez

[Congresswoman Delia C. Ramirez @repdeliaramirez]

Trump and Rubio seek control, power, and conquest. And they are willing to starve the Cuban people and violate U.S. and international law to extract and exploit every resource they can.

We must pass the Cuban War Powers Resolution and end the siege on the Cuban people.

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

Three longstanding axioms of U.S. policy have led America to war and defeat in Iran:

1. Iran is a malign, aggressive country solely because of the nature of its regime, regardless of how the United States and regional allies treat Iran;

2. Iran's activities pose a near-existential threat to the United States;

3. Diplomacy is weakness and sanctions don't work, leaving military force as the only way to reduce the threat.

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

@nickschifrin Diplomacy is the right path!

https://t.co/j8XtZII5WU

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

🆕Talks are "designed to return to the ceasefire and the MOU—restarting a 60-day clock to negotiate deals"

Is Trump finally listening to voices like @SenSanders?

"Sit down, let's negotiate... stop the killing, let's stop the devastation to our economy"

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

🆕Talks are "designed to return to the ceasefire and the MOU—restarting a 60-day clock to negotiate deals"

Is Trump finally listening to voices like @SenSanders?

"Sit down, let's negotiate... stop the killing, let's stop the devastation to our economy"

[Nick Schifrin @nickschifrin]

According to 4 regional sources:
- The deal between Oman and Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz by directing all inbound traffic into a route closer to Iran, and all outbound traffic into a route closer to Oman.
- The deal would be announced by Iran, Oman, and the UN's International Maritime Organization @IMOHQ, alongside the US.
- There would be no fees or tolls.
- One of the most important aspects: the agreement would be temporary.
- It's designed to return to the ceasefire and the MOU--restarting a 60-day clock to negotiate deals over Iran's nuclear program, frozen assets, and a permanent arrangement for the Strait.
- Iran expects during that time, it would receive relief to sell oil.
- The arrangement is endorsed by the members of the GCC. The fact that the GCC is willing to even entertain this temporary deal--with an emphasis on temporary--shocks some analysts, since Iran could hypothetically block all imports through the Strait of Hormuz. That goes to show how much the GCC is prioritizing stopping the war over anything else.

[Coalition to Change U.S. Policy on Pakistan (CUSP) @ChangePakPolicy]

US-backed regime escalates repression of media:

“The requirement that journalists obtain state approval to report from large parts of the country sends a chilling message: that critical reporting is unwelcome,” Pakistan’s leading human rights organization said in a statement.

[Justin Logan @JustinTLogan]

Keane speaks for so many hawks when he admits that he was always opposed to any deal with Iran. Including Trump’s.

I hope POTUS sees this clip. These people don’t want what he wants. They want more death and destruction until they get their regime change.

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

Right on cue — as pro-democracy protests continue against US-backed military regime of "Field Marshal" Asim Munir, the US govt. hypes the threat of terrorism

The failed military regime always cites terrorism as a pretext for maintaining its corrupt grip

[Just Foreign Policy @justfp]

@RKelanic Trump needs to cut Israel off in Lebanon by ending any kind of support that enables Israeli hostilities there:
https://t.co/xz1faoB55U

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

"Israel has been heavily striking South Lebanon today"

Israel again doing killing in Lebanon in order to undermine US-Iran peace

Will Trump finally order an end to any US support that enables Israeli attacks in Lebanon?

189 Members of Congress have voted for him to do this

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Israel is bombing southern Lebanon again, right on cue to scuttle the Hormuz peace deal Trump has been teasing.

Color me shocked.

[Erik Sperling @ErikSperling]

"Israel has been heavily striking South Lebanon today"

Israel again doing killing in Lebanon in order to undermine US-Iran peace

Will Trump finally order an end to any US support that enables Israeli attacks in Lebanon?

189 Members of Congress have voted for him to do this

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

U.S. foreign policy is beset by virtue-signaling moralism claiming to save the world and vice-signaling immoralism seeking to dominate the world — often amounting to the same thing.