Burns

Am i in confirmation bias mode? Am i trying to predict the market? Is it greed? Am I afraid? Charts and rules over the twitter ecochamber. No audibles!

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@JC_ParetsX sorry, I thought you were asking for who🙈

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@BullTheoryio There is no regulatory verification or proof of this.

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@BullTheoryio The 64% Accounts Receivable Figure: In recent quarters, Nvidia disclosed that its top three direct customers accounted for approximately 64% of its total accounts receivable (the amount of money owed to Nvidia for products already delivered).

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@BullTheoryio The "Fugazi" Shell Company Claim: The post alleges that Nvidia is engaging in deceptive round-trip revenue schemes by routing billions of dollars worth of GPUs through special purpose vehicles

There is no regulatory verification or proof of this.

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@MattBrookes3 @abraghis @LukeGromen not able to ramp up fast enough not a value stock, will they be able to ramp to justify an even higher PE?

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@LukeGromen can they print their own currency? if the have no UST, inflationary spiral?

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@davidasinclair what about metformin?

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@JoinLifespan what about metformin?

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@davidasinclair @LammingLab https://t.co/UtpjLtN6fN

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@davidasinclair @LammingLab The study is a "warning light" for high-dose BCAA supplementation, not a definitive "road map" for human dieting. The study you shared from the Lamming Lab is a high-quality, peer-reviewed piece of research from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. However, when determining its

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@RyanDetrick Barron’s – August 21, 2006

Cover/feature: Often referenced under the headline “A Housing Crisis Approaches” (part of the article “The No-Money-Down Disaster”). 

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@RyanDetrick There were several before the housing crashed, although they were early which we could be now

Before the 2000 dot-com crash

Barron’s – March 20, 2000

Cover story: “Burning Up: Warning: Internet companies are running out of cash—fast” 

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@ecommerceshares @michaeljburry argument that even after a company like Microsoft stops using the latest high-end chips and buys new ones, they resell those chips because they’re used much longer down the line for other companies and other companies and other uses so the chips have more than a three-year life

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos What did Anthropic actually earn this year?

Their estimated revenue for 2025 (not profit) is in the range of:

$3B–$4B in revenue

and

≈ –$2B to –$5B in net losses (depending on compute costs)

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Financing for data centers, GPUs, and cloud capex is becoming more expensive and harder to obtain

This is the opposite of what should be happening if this were a long, sustainable boom.

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Credit markets are telling the truth

You mentioned credit spreads — and that is exactly the canary in the coal mine.

AI-adjacent high-yield bonds have widened

Credit default swaps (CDS) on tech infrastructure names have doubled in the last 3–6 months

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Meta pulling back
Google more cautious
Oracle stumbling
Amazon questioning ROI

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos The Anthropic $50B announcement is not backed by cash.
The valuation is not supported by revenue.
The credit market is flashing warnings.
The capex cycle looks overextended.

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Assuming a generous 20% net margin (like a mature software company), they would need:

Annual revenue = $18.3B ÷ 0.20 = $91.5 billion per year

That would make Anthropic bigger than:

Oracle ($50B revenue)

Salesforce ($36B)
Adobe ($20B)
This is absurdly unrealistic right now

[Burns @KBurns_1]

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Let’s break it down cleanly and realistically.

🔢 1. What does a $183 billion valuation imply?

To justify a $183B valuation over 10 years, Anthropic would need to produce $18.3B per year in net profit (not revenue).