The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question
What won't change in the next 10 years?
Things I've been writing down over time:
- Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare.
- The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth.
- The physical world will move more slowly than the digital one.
- Every increase in technological capability, especially AI, will require more energy.
- People and businesses will continue to need access to capital.
- Capital will continue to seek returns that exceed inflation.
- Underwriting methods evolve, but demand for credit (loans) is persistent.
- Trust remains scarce and becomes increasingly valuable as content, code, and fraud become cheaper.
- Verified identities and reputation becomes more important as information becomes abundant and synthetic.
- Long-term wealth creation and dynastic (multi-generational) thinking predate modern technology, and will persist.
- Coordination and transaction costs never fully disappear; market friction will continue to justify the existence of firms and intermediaries.
- People will continue to compete for status.
- Consumers will pay a premium for products and services that confer status.
- Time remains fixed at 24 hours per day.
- But attention is a finite resource and an enduring constraint.
- Products that credibly save time (or enable delegation) have a perpetual market.
- Inaccessible, proprietary data will be a persistent moat. The more inaccessible and difficult to aggregate, the deeper the moat.
- People want accountability, recourse, and clearly identifiable responsibility when things go wrong.
- Regulation consistently lags technological innovation.
- Compliance requirements, licensing, and regulatory moats persist even when machines can perform the underlying task.
- Local knowledge remains valuable and difficult to replicate.
- Heterogeneous markets (like real estate) continue to reward people with deep contextual understanding.
- Incumbent organizations tend to underinvest in disrupting their own businesses, which always creates opportunities for challengers.
Bezos' insight on what wouldn't change in 10 years was "Customers will always want lower prices and faster delivery."
It's boring/ true, but I think that's the point.
Everything we build today can and will be rebuilt more cheaply, faster by someone else.
Build on the invariants, not the trends.
What have I missed?
one thing i’ve noticed about highly intelligent people:
you can often tell how clearly someone thinks by how precisely they speak. vague language usually reflects vague thinking. precise language comes from understanding something well enough to explain it without unnecessary noise
Eala es una jugadora carismática.
Tiene un tenis muy vistoso.
Es educada y tiene buenas actitudes en pista y fuera.
Es muy joven y viene creciendo a pasos agigantados.
Puede que dentro de no mucho esté levantando títulos 🏆 importantes.
I am impressed by this. Not by their climbing or bypassing security. But to be such a specific kind of crazy, that requires not just bravado but also great skill, and to find someone exactly as crazy, as skilful, as willing, who even happens to look like you and to have them be in love with you... few people will ever be so lucky, few people will ever live life so fully. To be lucky to find this, you don't need to live 80 or 90 years. They have already lived a hundred lives.
My landlord had the strangest tenant rule I've ever seen.
Every tenant in his building got one "grace month."
Once during your entire lease, you could tell him you couldn't pay rent.
He would waive that month's rent completely.
No paperwork. No proof. No repayment plan. No questions.
Just once.
When I first moved into the building, I thought it was a scam.
"People must abuse that all the time," I told him.
He smiled and said,
L’incontro di oggi a Roma con l’amica @takaichi_sanae, Primo Ministro del Giappone, è stato molto importante per ribadire una convinzione comune: Italia e Giappone sono determinati a costruire insieme un futuro di sicurezza, prosperità e stabilità.
Vogliamo dare risposte concrete ai nostri cittadini, raccogliere le sfide del presente e trasformarle in opportunità. E siamo pronti a farlo insieme 🇮🇹🇯🇵
“We won against Germany even though they beat us 7-1, one goal against Germany? Thats a win for us, it was only a dream for us to be here at the World Cup”
- Curacao fan 🥹❤️🇨🇼
pick a degree you don’t want to cheat. choose a city you don't want to flee. work a job you don’t want to quit. marry a person you don’t want to change. live a life you don’t want to escape.
I’m convinced discipline is just the highest form of self-respect. It’s choosing what you want most over what you want now. It’s keeping your word. It’s an act of service to your future self.
"The greatest remedy for anger is delay."
— Seneca
Sit on the message for one night.
Sleep on the email for eight hours.
The reply you would have sent at 9 pm and the reply you will send at 6 am are not written by the same man.
Matthew McConaughey says love isn't a 100-watt bulb, it's a 30-watt bulb
"I don't see how the honeymoon period lasts forever. The honeymoon is all on hope and the possible. We don't know each other as well as we're going to. Now we're getting into real stuff. Real pains, real pleasures, real fatigue, real wins together"
"If you try to hold onto that 100-watt bulb to be the light all the time, you're Wonder Woman, I'm Superman. It seems humanly impractical to live up to and unfair to each other"
"There's a preacher who said love is more like a 30-watt bulb. Dim the light a little bit. It'll last longer. Not as bright, but it'll illuminate longer. It's more realistic. It's more human"