Based on escalating U.S. debt ($35T+), eroding global confidence in the dollar amid BRICS alternatives, and contrarian forecasts like Peter Schiff's warnings of a 2025 crisis, I guess hyperinflation hits on March 15, 2027. Mainstream economists disagree, projecting stable 2% inflation, but unchecked deficits could tip the scale.
You just articulated one of the best parts about Bitcoin.
It will make everything more affordable. Here's how:
Without Bitcoin, you're forced to invest in a bunch of random stuff to grow your purchasing power.
Hotels, homes, speculative startups, etc.
Sure you know a bunch of it will fail, but you have so much cash that you just spray and pray that something hits and makes up for the losses.
That's capital misallocation. And it's happening at scale.
It inflates the price of everything for everyone.
Including homes that people need.
So what happens when people start stacking Bitcoin instead of dumping money into real estate investments?
The price of homes that people actually need to live in will fall.
Prices are truth.
They are the market's way of telling you the relative value of things.
So if your buddy can't get anyone to dump $16 million into a hotel, that means he's holding the bag.
He (or the bank that owns the hotel) needs to revalue the hotel much lower to whatever the clearing price is.
That's what happens when you play around with 20th century stores of value at the dawn of Bitcoin.
Asset holders need to adapt or die.
The price of real estate will continue to fall relative to Bitcoin because it's a terrible store of value compared to BTC.
Insurance costs, property tax, maintenance costs, tenant headaches, natural disaster risk, pandemic risks, etc...
Capitalism won't stop though.
At a certain point, Bitcoin returns slow down when it's properly priced closer to ~$10 million a coin in today's terms.
And then it may make sense to buy equity in businesses that can offer cash-flow or rapid growth opportunities.
But it's important to remember: People won't stop consuming just because they have Bitcoin.
When someone has surplus wealth, they eventually value time/experiences/material comfort more than incremental wealth.
Or they may want to fund entrepreneurs for excitement / challenge / impact.
And so Bitcoin will incentivize people to save and carefully allocate capital, but once they have "enough" - they will still trade some of their Bitcoin for goods and services.
One last thing:
You said deflation is a bad thing.
Deflation is coming no matter what.
When AI and robots are doing 90% of our work, that's massively deflationary because they can do things way faster and cheaper than humans.
Which should make the price of everything fall.
But you're right that deflation is bad for a debt-based economy because you can't pay back debt if the currency the debt is denominated in gets more valuable.
That's why central banks debase currencies to make sure the debt based economy doesn't implode.
So right now, instead of letting technology gains make things cheaper for everyone, central banks actually make sure we all face 2% growth in prices every year.
And they'll debase the currency as much as they need to to make sure prices grow instead of fall.
Which is why things get worse every year if you're stuck in the fiat system.
Luckily anyone can opt out of the inflationary system right now by adopting finite Bitcoin.
Bitcoiners are already living in a deflationary world.
We're getting the full benefit of humanity's increasing productivity.
Everything around us is getting vastly cheaper every four years.
Anyone can opt into this deflationary system at anytime and get the full benefit of the AI / robotic revolution that is just beginning.
This is the only thing you need to read about tariffs to understand Bitcoin for 2025. This is undoubtedly my highest conviction macro trade for the year: Plaza Accord 2.0 is coming.
Bookmark this and revisit as the financial war unravels sending Bitcoin violently higher.
I'm German.
16 years ago, the EU and US economies were neck and neck.
Today, the US economy is 50% larger than the entire EU combined.
Here's the devastating truth behind Europe's ongoing economic suicide 🧵:
BREAKING: FED cut rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4.25% to 4.5%. 🚨
“You weak perma-bulls are a joke, but watch me turn the tables and leave your ass broke.” - Jerome Powell, FOMC
Crazy to see how CT has owned less and less BTC over the years
Back in the day, everyone was euphoric when BTC was strong, people felt like they were missing out when they didn't have leverage even
That turned into everyone euphoric when ETH went up
And now people are only happy when dogshit rallies
Majority owns BTC -> Majority owns ETH -> Majority owns dogshit
They shook the entire community out of the only thing that is actually valuable in the long term to chase short-term gains
When Bitcoin hits $100,000 I will give 1 BTC to one person who follows me.
The rules are simple:
- like this tweet, follow me and RT
- comment “100k incoming”
Let’s go! $BTC #bitcoin
Removing mainstream media and studying/stacking #Bitcoin has absolutely changed my life for the better. And that's not just because number go up, but because of the huge positive community. 🧡
@BTCsessions Try restarting your router. Same thing happened to a friend very recently and a simple switch off/on the wifi router fixed it. Some DNS issue
"Nobody understands bitcoin."
>> But nobody understands the Dollar either.
Why the dollar is designed to lose value—understanding the U.S. monetary system
The Japanese Yen has retraced an entire year's worth of price action in just 26 days.
Don't let the headlines distract you.
This isn't about any one asset crashing.
This is about the entire global monetary system once again buckling under the weight of its own BS.
This is about the Bank of Japan pretending they can raise rates without blowing everything up in the process.
The US was already running crisis-level budget deficits...
What happens when portfolio values tank and capital gain tax revenues dry up as a result?
The US deficit goes ballistic and credit markets ultimately seize up as the Federal government floods the market with bonds to pay for deficits.
I've been saying it for years on here: The outcome is binary.
And the Central Planners will soon reach their next decision point:
Great Depression 2 or Great Debasement.
Either they let things fall apart, or they print to hold it together.
My bias is towards the Great Debasement, but a portfolio prepared for either scenario will help you watch today's volatility dispassionately.
My portfolio remains overweight Swiss Francs, BTC, Gold, and crucially, no debt/leverage.
Bitcoin: The best asset to hold through the Great Debasement. Finite bearer money without counter-party risk. It has vastly outperformed every other major asset since the Covid plunge in March 2020 kicked off the last major panic-printing.
Cash: Gains value in the less-likely deflationary scenario and allows you to buy assets that over-leveraged traders sell in a fire sale. It also helps you remain calm during volatility knowing your fiat liabilities (e.g. living expenses) are covered.
Gold: A nice boring physical asset to park some wealth in. Low volatility compared to BTC and equities. Vastly outperforms cash and bonds. And its physical quality provides a different kind of peace of mind (gold holders understand this).
No debt / leverage: Being debt free means never becoming a forced seller. If the monetary authorities lead us down the deflation path (unlikely, but possible) most people with debt will be forced to sell assets (including homes) to cover their obligations. That's a situation you never want to be in. In that situation you want to be the one with cash buying assets for pennies on the dollar.
The only other piece of the portfolio is a calm and rational mind to weather the volatility.
Days like today should not come as a surprise.
You cannot hide from volatility in the 2020's.
If the carnage in Japanese markets spills over into US markets, we could be looking at the next March 2020 moment as traders scramble for liquidity by selling whatever assets they hold.
People thought the world was ending in March 2020.
But that was actually just the beginning of a massive bull run.
While many panicked, some of us backed up the truck and bought BTC hand over fist that month and forever changed the trajectory of our families lives in the process.
Will history repeat this time?
If so, we could be closer to the beginning of the next cycle than the end.
All eyes will be on the central planners to see how they react to the carnage.
In the meantime, stay solvent, remain rational, and remember what you own.
And as always, enjoy summer ✌️☀️