Max

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

Adapt or Die: Trading When the Market Stops Playing Clean

Markets are incredibly complex. They are driven by thousands of participants, humans and machines, all placing orders for completely different reasons, across different timeframes and with different objectives.

We will never know the exact reason behind a those order. Last time I checked, your exchange doesn’t ask you to fill out a questionnaire before entering a position!

But on the LTF, I essentially separate the market into two environments:

The technical market and the news driven market.

In a technical market, the auction gives us information we can act on:
We study OrderFlow, positioning, volume, value, acceptance and rejection at key levels. From that, we can anticipate the next higher probability move based on how participants are positioned and whether they are being rewarded for their aggression or end up trapped.

That is exactly what we demonstrated recently:
Longs chased into the value extreme, failed to get rewarded and became trapped. That gave us the high probability short-trigger.
Later, lots of new shorts aggressively sold the lows but price refused to continue lower. That told us sellers were getting trapped, which justified taking major profits on the short and eventually even hedging with a long.

Why? Because trapped traders create predictable future pressure once they are forced to exit. And thats key.. "predictable" future pressure!

That is a clean auction. It is technical, probabilistic and, to a certain degree, anticipatable for us.

That is where our edge lies! Thats where we can extract money trading on the LTF.

Then there is a second market condition...
A surprise headline hits. A major macro development drops. Large participants suddenly have to adjust exposure and automated systems react within seconds. Price rapidly reprices.

At that moment, the beautiful technical auction you were reading five minutes earlier just became completely irrelevant.

That does not necessarily mean your read was wrong.
The market simply received new information that could not have been priced into your analysis beforehand, that was not visible in the auction yet.

And this distinction is extremely important.

We can anticipate pressure created by positioning, trapped traders, liquidity, volume and value.

We cannot realistically anticipate a completely unexpected headline.

You might happen to be positioned correctly before it hits and make a fortune from the move. Great.
But unless you had access to information the rest of us didn’t, that part was pure luck, not edge!

Trading those random repricing events is not what I’m interested in - I'm not a gambler.

Unexpected news has always been part of markets.
What has changed is the frequency at which these events are interrupting the LTF auction.

This is not simply higher volatility.
Volatility can still be technical.

The real problem is repeated, sudden changes in direction caused by new information disrupting the auction from developing "cleanly". Price moves aggressively one way, a headline hits, everything reverses, another development appears and the market reprices again.

That makes LTF trading dramatically more difficult, regardless of the system you trade.

Complaining about it achieves nothing.
Markets change, so we have to change with them.

For me, that currently means spending far less time exposed on the LTF, securing positions and locking in profits much faster, reducing position size and overall risk, and being much more selective about when I participate.

After a major news driven repricing, I’m increasingly willing to simply stay out for a few days and wait until a clean auction develops again.

The same applies when I know major announcements, political deadlines or macro events are approaching. If the environment offers poor visibility, there is no reason to force a trade.

I also want stronger confirmation than usual. In clean conditions, I can afford to anticipate more. In chaotic conditions, I want the market to prove the setup first.

And perhaps most importantly, I’m becoming even more comfortable with doing absolutely nothing.

Not trading is a position too.

Trading is difficult. It always has been and always will be.

And every few years the market presents a new challenge that forces you to question and adjust the way you operate. That is also what makes this game so interesting.

But I have to say, that over a prolonged period, I genuinely cannot remember LTF conditions being this difficult to extract consistent, clean profits from.

Eventually it will improve.
Then one day it will become difficult again.
Your job is not to demand that the market adapts to you. Your job is to recognize when conditions deteriorate, scale back, protect your capital and stay alive long enough for the next high quality window to appear.

When conditions are good, press the edge.

When conditions are bad, protect the right to play again tomorrow.

Markets evolve.
Either you evolve with them, or eventually they remove you from the game.

[Max @Max_Just4Fun]

@xapa03 @thebtcfrontierX Awesome! Let’s go

[XAPA @xapa03]

Thank you for the incredible support, i didn't expect such strong support.
As I said, once I reach 1,000 followers, I’ll open an educational channel where I’ll take a closer look at other coins and answer your questions.
You’ll also be able to watch live as I enter trades and explain the reasoning behind them.

I originally planned a $250 giveaway, but I’m increasing it to $1,000 total, 5 winners will each receive $200.
To enter the giveaway, just comment, like and repost this thread.
Grok will select the winners within the next 3 days.

There are people currently faking my name and sending Telegram links, that’s not me.
I hurried and finished the Discord server, it will be improved over time.

EDUCATION ONLY, NFA!

Welcome to XAPA's World!

https://t.co/dKGcrg8vw2

bitcoin:native

[Rajat Soni, CFA @Rajatsoni]

Exercise and investing are the ULTIMATE forms of delayed gratification

It's not a matter of IF you will be rewarded, but WHEN

When you lift weights, you don't see the benefits after 1 workout

You have to keep exercising to become physically fit

A great benefit of exercising when you're younger is being active and healthy in your later years

Similarly, investing is a way to delay gratification

When you invest, you don't spend your resources (time and money) immediately on things that would be considered "instant gratification"

Investing is a great way to be rewarded with financial independence or different opportunities in the future

You can easily choose to avoid exercising AND investing

Instead of going for a walk or lifting weights, you can continue watching TV, sleep in, or keep scrolling on your phone

Instead of buying assets, listening to an audiobook, or networking, you can choose to buy a more expensive car, or spend all your time being entertained

But you actually make the decision to put a pause on pleasure, to do something that will help you in the future

You may not see the benefits immediately, and there's a chance you'll NEVER see the benefits (like if you pass away prematurely)

But if you stick it out, and you make it to your 50s and beyond (there's a strong chance that you will)...

You'll see the benefits of delayed gratification and that it was all worth it

You won't have to work a part-time job to make ends meet (most people will have to), and you'll have fewer health related problems than the average person your age

It may seem like investing and exercising aren't worth it, but a few decades from now, you WILL see the benefits

An example from my own life:

I'm currently 34

I play hockey every week, and I want to keep playing until I'm in my 50s and 60s

The only way to do so is to maintain my health NOW so I don't have to worry about not being able to play IN THE FUTURE

I play hockey with individuals who are a variety of ages, and I'm easily able to keep up with players in their late teens and early 20s

This is the benefit of consistent exercise and maintaining a healthy diet starting from a young age!

[Jeff Swanson @theswansjr]

The median salary today is $65,000.
In 1970 it was $8,500.

Looks like progress.
Until you measure it in gold.

1970: 236 ounces
2026: 15 ounces

Your grandparents earned 221 more ounces of real money every year for the same work.
Dollars lost.
Hard money didn’t.

[Rajat Soni, CFA @Rajatsoni]

Bitcoiners are the only people in the world who have understood why gold failed as money

Goldbugs try to complicate things and make up reasons for why gold HASN'T failed

The base functions of money are:

- Medium of exchange
- Unit of account
- Store of value

When I had my conversation with Peter Schiff, he told me gold is money because it has value to store

What about the other functions?

Nobody on earth uses gold as a medium of exchange because it's too difficult to transport

Fiat exists because gold SUCKS as money in a digital economy

Very few people use it as a unit of account, because fiat works better as a medium of exchange

Bitcoin is the only asset in existence that can be used as all 3

[Jeff Swanson @theswansjr]

You can’t explain Bitcoin to someone who doesn’t understand money in the first place.
No awareness of the problem = zero appreciation for the solution.
That’s why most people dismiss bitcoin.

[LALO @DonLaloLalo]

HOW TO USE "CBBI" TO TIME $BTC BULL MARKET CYCLE TOPS

A thread🧵

CBBI is a free indicator created by @ColinTCrypto
It uses 9 metrics to understand what stage of the Bitcoin bull run and bear market cycles we are in.

See more at https://t.co/3ADsfFagHI

[CryptoBullet @CryptoBullet1]

$OTHERS.D 1M Linear chart

$OTHERS.D bottomed in Q4 2025 and as I said back then, $Alts against $BTC entered a multi-year Uptrend ����

We have everything we need: a massive Bull Div on the Histogram, a Bullish Cross on MACD and the lowest sentiment ever. People don’t realize it yet, but we’re already several months into the Biggest Altcoin Bull Run!

Some people draw a similar chart and say that the pump will be quick and we'll reach the top in 2027. Unfortunately, that’s wishful thinking. I believe it will take us 2-3 years to get there.

Proportions:
Downtrend #1 (Bear Market for Alts): June 2017 - August 2019 | 26 months
Uptrend #1 (Bull Market for Alts): August 2019 - January 2022 | 29 months

Downtrend #2 (Bear Market for Alts): January 2022 - October 2025 | 45 months
Uptrend #2 (Bull Market for Alts): October 2025 - December 2029 | 45x(29/26) = 50 months 👈

The 2027-2029 Crypto Bull Run will be bigger than anything we’ve had before. No pipe-dreaming, it’s all in the charts.

My $OTHERS.D Macro Targets for the next 3 years:
🎯 Target 1 - 17.5-19.5%
🎯 Target 2 - 24.9-27.6%

[G.Martín @GMartin_0]

#Bitcoin 2-week candle close update.

We are still in a bear market, but the setup is getting closer.

Does it have to play out exactly like previous bear market bottoms?

Of course not.

But this type of trend structure, combined with divergences in momentum indicators, can help us understand when a trend may be reaching a point of exhaustion, in this case, seller exhaustion.

If $BTC keeps moving lower from here, I can’t say how far it can go. But in order to get in as early as possible before the rally starts, I believe MACD, combined with a proper understanding of Stochastic RSI, price action, and trend interpretation, is a great combination.

The chart on the right is from a post I wrote back in May, where I was already pointing this out, and the setup is now starting to form exactly as I laid it out.

Patience.

[Jeff Swanson @theswansjr]

If Bitcoin is worthless, then send me one.

A classic challenge to those who don’t understand Bitcoin.
But it goes deeper.

Bitcoin is the first money in 5,000 years that exists purely as knowledge. Nothing else comes close.

Money isn’t a rock you can hold. It never was.

Money is a social construct. A shared hallucination we agree on. But Bitcoin is the first money in history that exists entirely as cryptographic knowledge.

You don’t store Bitcoin. You know it.

Ownership isn’t physical custody. It’s possession of a private key.

I can write 12 words on paper, bury it in the desert, destroy every device, disappear for a decade, and the Bitcoin is still mine.

Not because it’s stored somewhere.
Not because a server tracks it.
Not because a bank vouches for me.

Because I know the key. That’s the entire model.

No counterparty. No permission. No trust.

The network doesn’t hold my coins. Miners don’t custody them. Nodes don’t approve ownership.

Math alone verifies control.

To spend, I broadcast a signed transaction.
To hold, I depend on no one.

Gold is bearer money. You can bury it and it’s yours.
But it has limits:
• Hard to move
• Hard to divide
• Hard to verify

Bitcoin keeps gold’s bearer nature and adds superpowers:
• Instant global transfer
• Perfect divisibility
• Cryptographic authenticity

Gold is analog bearer money. Bitcoin is digital bearer money. Fiat is the opposite.

You can’t truly possess dollars without banks, central banks, and payment rails. Even cash is a liability dependent on policy and trust.

Fiat is a claim.
Bitcoin is proof.

Bitcoin isn’t a database entry assigned to you.
It’s a scarce cryptographic artifact secured by proof-of-work.

Back to the challenge: If Bitcoin is worthless, send me one.

To do that, you must:
• Control a private key
• Sign a real transaction
• Broadcast it globally
• Have miners burn energy to confirm it

You can’t fake this. You can’t shortcut it. You must trade, sell, or work to earn Bitcoin.

Stop thinking of Bitcoin as something you store.
Start thinking of it as knowledge you possess.

• A seed phrase is pure information
• That information grants control over scarce units
• No one can debase, freeze, or dilute it

This is why Bitcoin is sovereign money.

Gold required physical custody. Fiat required institutional trust.

The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin is real money. It’s how long you’ll keep holding inferior versions.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

I am getting a lot of questions about a Bitcoin multi-sig setup so I thought I'd create this quick guide.

This is now the gold standard for serious self custody.

Any single device can fail or have a flaw. Multi-sig removes the single point of failure.

1) The equipment:

Mix your hardware brands. A bug in one vendor's firmware cannot touch a setup where the other two keys come from different manufacturers.

-Trezor Safe 5 (wallet 1)
-Blockstream Jade (wallet 2)
-BitBox02 (wallet 3)
-Sparrow Wallet (desktop-only) as your coordinator

2) Generate your keys:

Set up all three devices completely independently. Secure the 12 or 24 word seed phrase for each. You now have three unrelated wallets.

3) Export the public keys:

Open Sparrow. Plug in each device and export its XPUB. XPUBs only read balances, they cannot move funds. This step is safe.

Make sure all three devices use the same script type, for example Native SegWit. Mixing address types across devices will cause errors in Sparrow.

4) Build the vault:

New Wallet, Multi-Signature 2-of-3. Import all three XPUBs. Sparrow merges them into a single vault.

Save and print the Wallet Configuration File. This is your blueprint and this is where people get caught out.

Two seeds spend your Bitcoin. Three XPUBs find it.

Bitcoin locks multi-sig funds to all three public keys simultaneously. Feed Sparrow only two XPUBs and it generates completely different addresses. Your balance shows zero. The coins are still there, you just cannot see them.

XPUBs cannot move your funds, but anyone holding them can see your entire balance and transaction history. Keep a copy of the blueprint wherever a seed lives, and store it with the same care.

5) Test it:

Send $5 to your new multi-sig address, then spend it back out. Sparrow will ask you to sign with any two devices.

If the spend works, your setup works. Do not skip this.

6) Separate your backups:

Never store them in the same place.

For example...

-Home: Seed 1 + blueprint
-Close relative's home: Seed 2 + blueprint
-Third location: Seed 3 + blueprint

You can also keep an extra copy of the blueprint on its own somewhere separate. It cannot spend anything by itself.

The absolute rule is that no single location should ever hold two seeds. Two seeds plus the blueprint is a spendable wallet and the blueprint is not secret enough to rely on as protection.

Why 2-of-3 works:

House burns down? Retrieve the other two seeds and recover everything.

One device compromised by a firmware flaw? Your Bitcoin is safe. They need two.

I have not covered passphrases to keep this simple.

I hope this helps. Happy to assist if anyone needs any support.

[Loran @0xLoran]

In 2013 a Wall Street risk boss walked up to an MIT chalkboard and gave away the exact math desks charge $400,000 a year to run.

MIT filmed it. it has been free for 13 years. 7.9 million people pressed play and almost none of them changed a thing.

his point: the Wall Street edge was never a secret. it is a first lecture. options, risk, how a payout is actually built.

every prediction-market trader hunting an edge in 2026 is chasing what Jake Xia put on a board in hour one of a free class.

he ran risk for a living, not a channel. the video outdrew most blockbusters and still moved almost no one, because watching is not doing.

skip to where he prices risk. he takes the thing quant threads sell for $500 and builds it from zero, slow enough for a beginner to follow.

no paywall. no NDA. one board and a marker.

a quant I know sends this link to every junior who whines the math is too hard.

you are 13 years late. it is still free.

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

THIS CHART SAYS IT ALL:

BUY #BITCOIN 500 DAYS BEFORE THE HALVING

SELL 500 DAYS AFTER THE HALVING.

THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS REAL 🚀

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

People often ask me what they should read. I assembled 38 works on history, war, uncertainty, liberty, capital, energy, technology, and Bitcoin for leaders making consequential decisions. Read to remember. Read to reason. Read to build. Upgrade the world.

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

I’m as bullish as ever on Bitcoin, and still long (as always).

It’s never as good or bad as it seems.

[Joao Wedson @joao_wedson]

The end of Bitcoin’s bear market may take a little longer than many expect.

Like it or not, this signal has been highly accurate, and we need to keep watching it closely.

I’ll record a video for everyone with a real overview of what we’re seeing and the story the data is telling.

Stay tuned.

[₿rett @brettmacro]

@TomCrown A more accurate rainbow chart would be something like this where the tops and bottoms all touched the upper/lower bands.

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.

He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.

He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."

He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.

But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.

Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

[Tom | On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Cycle lows tend to cluster near the 400-day mark from the top.

We are only around day ~240.

History does not run on a stopwatch, but it does say this process usually takes longer than people want.