Charlie Geller

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@Silent_fill0 Invaluable information, as everyday. Can't understand why you don't have a million followers

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@stockdatamarket Thanks for sharing your knowledge! You're doing great

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@inversornovat0 O sea que el lunes vuelta en V, como de costumbre

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

SPY WEEKEND OUTLOOK | Saturday June 6

$737.55. SPY closed Friday down 2.6% from Thursday. The OpEx cleared. Here's where the structure stands heading into Monday.

THE POST-OPEX STRUCTURE:

Friday's OpEx stripped the concentrated accelerators that drove the selloff. The -$871M at $740 is gone. GEX improved from -$1,847M (the intraday peak) to -$868M post-expiration. Still negative. Still amplifying. But the most violent accelerators expired at 4 PM.

The remaining accelerators are spread across later expirations (June 12, June 18, June 30) and less concentrated at any single strike. No single accelerator above -$81M. Friday had -$871M at one strike. The character changes from concentrated violence to distributed pressure.

WHAT CHANGED HEADING INTO MONDAY:

Our composite score went LEAN BEARISH (-22.9). Every previous selloff (May 15, May 19, June 3) held at neutral. This one didn't. The bearish side of the dial for the first time.

The GEX flip moved to $724. Cushion: 1.9%. Read that number carefully. The structural floor that sat at $683 (8-9% below) for three weeks is now $13.55 below the close. One bad session breaks it. This is the narrowest floor of the cycle. Condition one of five for a top: the floor narrows. It narrowed.

The dealer engine is effectively zero. Net delta: 473K shares. Was 171M on Tuesday. The forced-buying loop that powered every recovery is gone. Not depleted. Gone.

IV skew: +5.35% bearish. The highest of the cycle. Puts are significantly more expensive than calls for the first time. The market is paying a premium for downside protection that it never paid at any previous selloff.

Put premium dominance: -$1.42B. 65% put. $3B of put premium today alone. The second consecutive put-heavy session. The call dominance regime that defined every previous selloff is over.

We published the delta flip Friday evening. Net delta swung 170M shares in one week. The mechanical bid that powered the rally reversed. Monday morning gets a one-time buying pulse from hedge unwinding. After that, the surviving delta is negative through the week unless new positioning rebuilds the structure. The vanna snap-back can kickstart that rebuild. Whether it sustains is the question Monday answers.

WHAT SUPPORTS A MONDAY BOUNCE:

Vanna: +190.8K dealer effective. The largest supportive vanna reading of the cycle. If IV compresses from 15.7% toward 14%, dealers mechanically buy shares. The bigger the IV spike, the more vanna fuel loads for the snap-back. That fuel is at maximum capacity right now.

The OpEx cleared the accelerators. The concentrated gamma that caused Friday's damage expired. Monday's structure is mechanically less hostile even if GEX stays negative.

IV compression is likely. Friday's selloff spiked IV from 13.3% to 17.1%. Post-OpEx weekends historically compress IV. If IV drops 2 points Monday morning, the +190.8K vanna triggers significant dealer buying.

Our Correlation regime: 2.0/10 green. The selloff is mechanical, not systemic. The correlation data says the market isn't herding. Dispersion is intact. This was gamma amplification, not a liquidation event.

Historical pattern: every previous OpEx selloff this cycle was followed by a rebuild within 1-3 sessions. May 15 gamma cliff rebuilt by May 18. May 22 OpEx rebuilt by May 26. The pattern has held every time.

OUR READ:

The structure is the weakest it's been. The floor is the narrowest. The engine is the smallest. The bearish positioning is the heaviest. These are facts in the data.

The vanna is the most loaded. The accelerators just expired. The correlations are green. The historical pattern favors a rebuild. These are also facts in the data.

Both are true. Monday resolves the tension. If the institutions rebuild the structure and the afternoon build returns, this was the same OpEx-amplified selloff we've seen three times already. If Monday fails to rebuild and the floor at $724 breaks, the structural character has changed and the June 18 approach becomes a different conversation.

We'll be here at the open with the levels.

$737 is the close. $724 is the floor. $700 is the accelerator chain. $760 is the recovery target. Monday is the verdict.

$SPY $QQQ $VIX

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@Albitamix Pues en los últimos tiempos, cuando baja por el ascensor, luego sube en cohete

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@SlopeOfHope It's nice to see red candles again, but I bet there will be a V recovery as usual. They will start giving headlines or whatever in order to reverse the red candles

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@Silent_fill0 And below 735? 730 right?

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@zerohedge But according to Trump, now a ceasefire means soft bombing

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Ladies and gentlemens, dignitaries, royals, and celestial beings…

We stand at the inflection point where greed meets fear.

The majestic yet consequential broadening pattern has now completed on two fronts from the longer-term upper major levels of historical resistance down to the shorter broadening ascending patterns level of resistance.

What awaits us is not for the faint-hearted. 💔

Remain vigilant, diligent, and above all… disciplined.

Yours truly,
The Great Martis✨

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@JTheretohelp1 Yes, Sir

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@JTheretohelp1 Just the way it was in 1999! 4.236 fib and a little bit more, then collapse

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@stockdatamarket Man! That f#cking Trump can't stop lying for even a second

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

“These people aren’t just suppressing prices, they are manufacturing an epic black swan” - Stars are aligning ⚠️

[Brian Sozzi @BrianSozzi]

Deutsche Bank on the huge stock market run-up:

"Since WWII, the only other time the S&P 500 has risen this rapidly (except after a recession) was months before a huge market crash."

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@JTheretohelp1 I can't re-follow you since I started yesterday to do so. However, I can sincerely thank you for all the valuable information that you share 👏

[Josh Schafer @_JoshSchafer]

Truist's Keith Lerner took a look at 30 major IPOs. The Year 1 max drawdown column stands out.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

This is one of the weirdest charts I have ever seen

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@BullTheoryio @RyanDetrick Then statistically it's high time to peak in June, isn't it?

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@starryx9 @AnthonyFatseas @DaveHcontrarian That guy @DaveHcontrarian is a moron. Just blocked me for telling the truth based on his posts. He has such a fragile ego.

[Charlie Geller @MicroSpeculator]

@DaveHcontrarian @AnthonyFatseas Man, what I've said is extracted from your OWN posts. Every single year since 2018, you keep giving higher targets for the S&P500, and at the same time saying that after the melt up it will be the biggest bear market since 1929. Maybe you are an ignorant of what you post?