@xvrmdf A successful politician navigates party ranks and achieves high office
Making competent economic choices as chancellor requires a fundamentally different skill set to being successful in politics
@John_Hempton@orrdavid c. Greater liquidity/leverage at play?
Markets stay 'irrational' as long as ongoing marginal flow in that direction - more flow/leverage keeps it going till it doesn't
Zero data/analysis to back this up
@John_Hempton@macromedia45 Presumably a host of assumptions underpin the forecasts - might get four of five right (expert) but the fifth one wrong wrecks it
This validates their expertise while making it perfectly logical/normal that they'll get forecasts wrong