Tesla and SpaceX over the next few months:
• June 18: CRSP index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $4-7B in forced buying by passive funds.
• June 18: FTSE Russell index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $6-9B in forced buying by passive funds.
• June 26: MSCI index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $3-5B in forced buying by passive funds.
• End of June: HW3 Tesla owners get FSD V14 Light. Expect possible delays.
• July 2: Tesla Q2 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.
• July 6: NASDAQ 100 index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $8-12B in forced buying by passive funds.
• Late July: Tesla Q2 earnings call.
• Early-mid August: SpaceX Q2 earnings call, their first earnings call as a public company.
• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings released: 30% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 12% of all outstanding shares).
NOTE: Since only about 40% of all outstanding shares are eligible for early release lockups, that 30% above equates to 12% of all outstanding shares. Elon's shares, board member shares, and some others, are subject to an extended lockup of 366 days. Together, the shares subject to these extended lockup restrictions represent 60% of SpaceX's outstanding shares.
• August 21: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• September 10: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• September 25: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• September: Indexes rebalance. SpaceX will then have a higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.
• October 2: Tesla Q3 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.
• October 12: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• October 26: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• Late October: Tesla Q3 earnings call.
• Early-mid November: SpaceX Q3 earnings call.
• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q3 earnings released: 28% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 11.2% of all outstanding shares).
• December 9: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).
• December: Indexes rebalance again. SpaceX will then have an even higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.
(The Cursor acquisition will likely affect these lockup percentages slightly)
The dot-com crash is what everyone remembers. The dot-com run is what most people forget.
Momentum traders got paid long before the collapse.
Yes, maybe this becomes the AI-era version of the dot-com bubble. Maybe years from now we look back and say the excess was obvious. Go study the dot-com run carefully.
The internet is the perfect example.
What began as military infrastructure became consumer infrastructure. First niche. Then communication. Then commerce. Then media. Then cloud computing. Eventually, it became something modern life could no longer function without.
That kind of adoption creates booms, bottlenecks, speculation, overinvestment, new winners, failed companies, and entirely new industries nobody fully saw coming at the start.
AI may be following a similar path.
Right now, most people see Nvidia $NVDA. Foundational technology shifts rarely stay isolated.
AI started by driving demand for compute. That immediately created second-order demand in memory, where companies like Micron $MU and SanDisk $SNDK became critical because AI systems are starving for bandwidth and storage. It pushed infrastructure names like Super Micro Computer $SMCI and Dell $DELL higher because someone has to build and deliver the physical infrastructure that powers this expansion. It is now spreading into energy, where names tied to powering future data centers, from Bloom Energy $BE to nuclear players like Oklo $OKLO, are being pulled into the conversation because AI requires enormous power.
That’s how real technology transitions behave.
They spread.
They create entirely new ecosystems.
The internet didn’t stop at websites.
It gave us Amazon $AMZN.
It gave us streaming.
It gave us social media.
It gave us SaaS.
It reshaped advertising, logistics, entertainment, payments, and human communication.
AI likely won’t stop at chatbots.
It expands into robotics, autonomous systems, drug discovery, personal agents, industrial automation, education, design, software development, and categories we cannot fully define yet.
That’s why comparing today’s market to the dot-com bubble without context can be misleading.
Bubbles form around transformational technology.
Transformational technology also transforms the world.
The Nasdaq ran roughly 600% into the 2000 peak. From the 2022 lows, we are nowhere near that kind of move.
Does that mean we repeat history? No.
Does calling “bubble” automatically mean “top”? Also no.
For long-term fundamental investors, valuation matters far more.
For intraday momentum traders, the job is different.
The job is to identify momentum, manage risk, and extract opportunity from what price is actually doing.
Winning the macro debate does not pay your P&L.
A market can stay irrational longer than your short thesis can survive.
Calling every extension a bubble does not make you early. Sometimes it leaves you sidelined. Sometimes it gets you run over trying to short momentum because your beliefs became louder than the tape.
I’m not saying this market goes endlessly higher.
I am saying that if this is the early innings of a foundational technology shift, the opportunity may be much larger, and much messier, than most expect.
Options Mosaic: Week Ahead for May 10, 2026
*****************************
🤰😘Happy Mother’s Day!
@Yam_Trades and I have been warning about RV only likely having one way to go starting sometime this week.
✍🏼I’m ready to put a finer point on it. The futures market will tell us path for this week tonight when it opens (while I’m at the theater watching a movie for Mother’s Day with my family). ❤️
⚖️There are three scenarios but only one line in the sand. Here they are in order of least to most likely.
1️⃣ We open above the 7425 LIS and squeeze ahead of cash open. This catches most offside as puts are worthless by morning and the rally continues which causes RV to drop to all time lows in the coming week. Very unlikely this happens but it would be consistent with this rally (no mercy) so you have to be prepared for this scenario as a possibility. If you see it unfold, do not fight it - it means the anticipated pullback is not coming. Understand of course that I’m not taking about a rally to 7432. That is just a slight overshoot of the LIS. I’m talking about us closing tomorrow another 70+ points higher. (10% chance)
2️⃣ We open GLOBEX as low as ~SPX 7370 and decline to 7325 overnight or during cash. We then have a rip your face off rally to 7425 that traps bulls. This could be a Monday into Tuesday scenario. (40% chance).
3️⃣ We open right at 7425 and slowly bleed down to the two levels mentioned above through GLOBEX and cash. This path would include violent rips higher along the way but you will notice most of the time we will make lower highs and lows. (50% likely path)
🤔We could of course do some variation of 2 and 3 as well but the levels don’t change. These levels are driven by positioning and some technicals concur
(or the other way around 🤷♂️)
🙄Now I know I will get the “so you are saying we could go up or down” smart 🫏 out there. Yes, we literally can almost always go up or down. Sorry, you can’t just place a buy or sell order and walk away. Believe it or not, the market has grown too sophisticated for your 2005 strategies. But the difference between a good trader and a bad trader is understanding the “if, then” statements and how to EXECUTE accordingly. 💪
📉If the downside plays out, I’ll be back with how low to watch for later this week.
🎙️Premarket flow show tomorrow with @iV_trader and @Yam_Trades (look for link later today).
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr:
1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1.
CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr.
2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr?
Photoresist bottleneck go brr?
3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes.
MCU companies potentially go brr?
4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included:
-Transformers
- transmission components
- advanced conductors
- power electronics
- substations
- high-voltage circuit breakers
- protective relays, capacitor banks
- electrical core steel
As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr.
5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs.
Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr?
6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%.
SSD prices keep going brrr?
7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr?
8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton.
ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply?
Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr?
9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs".
Uhh $IQE and others go brr?
10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected."
Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr?
Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:
1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle
5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now.
6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix
7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax
8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time
9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade
10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff
11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now
12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google.
13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it.
14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america
15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild.
16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act)
17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon.
18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well.
19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important
20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff
21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight?
22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks
23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long
24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition
25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck
26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors.
27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains
28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity.
29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine.
30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE
Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle.
It’s going from:
$NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc
And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan.
Most of these span multi-years.
If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make.
It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions.
Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
(Happy Good Friday ... if that's your gig.)
Options Nerds and Options Wannabee's - Prepare to freak the fuck out.
Short Backstory:
• I grew up on a Mac. Became a Mac evangelist in the late '80s ... writing apps in C with my son, using Apple Human User Interface Guidelines. Our raison d'être: UI's should be intuitive ... and educational.
• I started using Thinkorswim in 2008 when Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista were pitching the platform in various U.S. cities. I signed up for their "PhD" educational program ($23,000 at the time). Thinkorswim still the ultimate options trading machine.
So ... now ... we like Weeklys, right.?
And we like to look at options sentiment one week ahead.
We like the Greeks (if made simple) and want to know how dealer positioning is going to push price around during a dual auction market process.
Behold.👇
Here is next week's options data ... chock full of educational content and sentiment info ... in an interactive interface that Steve Jobs and Bud Tribble would be lovin'.
https://t.co/1L002WzCLC
Play with it.
Learn stuff.
___________________
• In playing with it ... you chose a metric and an expiration. Then read Claude's take on the positioning and use your cursor to rollover the histograms for details.
• I, personally, pay the most attention to the GEX + CHARM button ... and how that changes over the time series.
___________________
(This is pure nextSignals work ... no affiliation with anyone. My Centaur stuff.)
President Trump said the U.S. is going heavy into nuclear energy citing major safety advances.
He argued nuclear is now both reliable & cost-competitive for powering the economy.
That money supports the entire nuclear stack:
• Upstream uranium miners & fuel processors like $CCJ, $UUUU & $LEU that supply the raw fuel
• Midstream reactor & SMR builders like $SMR, $OKLO, $BWXT & $NNE that turn fuel into capacity
• Downstream utilities like $NEE, $VST, $TLN & $CEG that convert that capacity into grid power
15 STOCKS THAT SCALE WITH $NVDA AI ENGINE
1. $IREN builds low-cost, energy-backed compute at industrial scale
2. $ALAB removes GPU-to-memory bottlenecks so inference doesn’t stall
3. $TSLA is deploying physical AI that moves, acts & operates in the real world
4. $OKLO provides always-on nuclear power for inference-driven data centers
5. $AVGO ties compute, memory & networking together with custom silicon
6. $ASML is the AI kingmaker since every advanced chip is built with its machines
7. $TSM is the factory that manufactures the chips the entire AI stack depends on
8. $CIFR is the landlord of the AI buildout through owned power & data center sites
9. $ANET moves data between GPUs fast enough for rack-scale AI systems to function
10. $ARM scales low-power inference across edge devices & distributed AI workloads
11. $VRT keeps AI data centers powered & cooled so nonstop inference actually works
12. $AMD is the second source that prevents the AI economy from relying on one supplier
13. $MU supplies the DRAM & HBM next to GPUs that let AI think longer & hold more context
14. $NBIS is the cloud utility for the AI age, turning compute into on-demand infrastructure
15. $PLTR monetizes the layer that converts AI models into operational decisions & productivity
Get David Prince's 2026 Strategy Report:
https://t.co/M71tlbDcie
@epictrades1 takes you through:
-His #1 sector for 2026, and the 4 names you need to watch there (it's not AI)
-Why $QQQ is at risk of a pullback
-Where he wants to buy $NVDA & $TSLA
-His top large cap tech name
-The IPO he wants to buy and hold for 10 years (not SpaceX)
And more!
I hit a big milestone on X this week, and I wanted to give back in the most genuine way I know how, and it's by giving credit where it’s due.
I didn’t grow here by being the smartest person in the room. I grew by being a continuous student and intentionally curating who I learn from.
Everything I know about the markets didn’t come from one source or one year, but from years of studying traders ahead of me, failing repeatedly, and learning from those generous enough to share their work publicly.
X has completely changed my life, and that only happened once I removed the noise and built an intentional, curated follow list.
This list is in no particular order... and I would like to preface that I’m still a student of the game and always will be, and I’m deeply grateful for everyone below because I would not be where I am today without them.
Yes, I’ve probably missed some names (my apologies in advance), but that does not take away from the fact that everyone I follow, I follow for a reason, and I’ve taken something from each of them!
These "veteran traders" have shaped the core of how I think and approach the markets:
No introductions needed, because most of what I know comes from studying their material obsessively.
@Qullamaggie: Kristjan’s work changed everything for me. His process on momentum, EPs, cutting losers fast, pressing winners, and understanding where a stock is in its life cycle is foundational to my own core approach.
@markminervini: his focus on relative strength, VCP patterns, leadership, and trend alignment drilled into me the importance of trading the strongest names in the strongest environments. I've also taken away that simplicity wins long term, and chasing laggards is a losing game.
@OliverKell_: not so "veteran" and still a very young lad, but Oliver’s "Cycle of Price Action" framework is something I've adapted to all TF's. Exhaustion, decline, basing, reversal, expansion, and once you see it, you can’t unsee it. His emphasis on structure, EMAs, and market psychology has shaped how I read charts in real time to this day.
William J. O’Neil: CANSLIM, leadership, institutional sponsorship, and the idea that price + volume tells the whole story. Every aggressive momentum trader should study O’Neil’s work deeply.
Jesse Livermore: Livermore taught me that the hardest part of trading isn’t finding entries... it’s sitting tight, controlling your emotions, and letting winners do the heavy lifting.
Stan Weinstein: Stage analysis completely changed how I view trends. Understanding Stage 1 bases, Stage 2 advances, and why most money is made in Stage 2 has been critical for my aggressive swing trading approach.
Below, I have attached Traders I’ve personally learned a TON from... specifically on X, and my main takeaways from each:
these are traders whose posts, resources, and transparency have directly influenced my journey.
@RealSimpleAriel: Ariel’s transition from day trading to swing trading relates to my own journey. I’ve learned a ton from him about leaders vs laggards, tracking relative strength during market pullbacks, and acting on that RS when the market turns. His EMA based approach and educational content (especially on YouTube) is pure gold.
@Braczyy & @TSDR_Trading: THE dynamic duo, two of the first traders I followed and studied at the beginning. I relate deeply to their stories and their own personal journeys as a trader. I’ve picked up countless gems over the years, and when Bracco talks parabolic shorts... I listen. Also, two of the very first people who reached out when I started gaining traction... and for that, I'm forever grateful.
@ManzTrades: an OG. One of the earliest influences on my trading journey. He was one of the first who taught me how to think in terms of trapped participants, higher timeframe thesis, and market psychology. His support and resources over the years have positively contributed to my own life outside of trading, and he was one of the first larger names to reach out to me at the beginning to lend a hand.
@FranVezz: trend follower at his finest and heavy emphasis on structure around EMAs (very similar style). His mantra says it all: “Good stocks are above rising MAs. Bad stocks are below declining MAs.” Super simple, effective, and timeless approach.
@SRxTrades: one of my longest follows and is insanely consistent, process oriented, and focused on simplicity. Turned 10k into millions while openly sharing education and his journey here on X. I'm grateful to call him a friend and have learned a lot from him over the years. His focus on a simple and repeatable system speaks volumes.
@jfsrev: Jeff’s genuine love for the game and his processes is unmatched. His humility, character, and willingness to educate others without expecting anything in return is highly respected. His resources have helped me refine my own system and become more focused on the smaller details within the core approach. A true example of giving without expecting anything in return.
@Zastocks: one of my favorite follows and a man of true humility. Elite top down approach, sector/theme awareness, and simplicity. He’s often early to themes before the crowd, focuses on identifying the next "big thing", and every post feels like it clicks perfectly with how I think. Truly hope we get long form video content from him one day, haha...
@stamatoudism: Mario's subtle details, elite philosophy, and insane educational output... all for free (insane). Take advantage of his write ups, because his very detailed posts have slowly reshaped how I think about markets. A previous top performer in the USIC and someone I look up to immensely.
@AmeetRai & @RichardMoglen: absolute no brainers... Their deep dives into USIC champions on YouTube are mandatory watches for me. The effort they put into free education is mind blowing (take advantage). I’ve rewatched multiple interviews on YouTube more than once, and you should too!
@TedHZhang & @ConnorJBates_: another dynamic duo and two young killas! I’ve learned a lot from both about leadership, sector rotation, and market environment. They live and breathe markets, and it shows. I look at their stuff every single day.
@NickSchmidt: Nick's emphasis on weekly charts has heavily influenced my top down approach. He genuinely cares about delivering value, and his X subscription is 100% worth it IMO!
Other GREAT intentional follows: (follow 'em all)
- @epictrades1: one of the most knowledgeable market minds out there.
- @Clement_Ang17: consistent top USIC performer.
- @801010athlete: tight entry specialist.
- @wey_how12640: process, theme focused investor.
- @CFlanders7: great perspective (loved his @TraderLion interview)
- @NickDrendel: massive value on YouTube.
- @TLAMB91: my go to flow/fib guy.
- @PrimeTrading_: relatable PB buy framework.
- @investingluc: dense writeups, newer favorite follow.
- @ShakePryzby1: infectious energy, simple and effective approach (watch his @TraderLion interview).
- @Venu_7_: S tier fundamental + technical research.
- @TheProfInvestor: clean, simple market perspective.
- @martinlukkt: young, ambitious, USIC top performer.
- @Peoplewish: Kristjan-style momentum approach.
- @lonextrades: similar Kristjan influence, great follow.
- @TAPLOT: CANSLIM/VCP inspired momentum trader.
- @KynaKosling: ELITE Substack deep dives.
- @1ChartMaster: helped introduce the 30 min pivot to my playbook.
- @AsymTrading: breakout trader focused on tightness, great writeups.
- @SteveUrkelDude: technical analysis guru.
- @ChartsJavi: one of the best chartists on the planet.
- @LanesWRLD_: my first ever follow, VPA legend.
- @JoeStonks & @YousufTrades: OG friends with unique perspectives on the markets.
- @artisanwill12 & @Stephen_Trades1: similar trading styles, EMA/top down approach.
- @FelipeGuirao: simple "buy at close" system, great education.
This took some time to fully write out, so sorry for the long post, but I truly wanted to sit down and be very intentional with this list, because intentionally curating who I learned from completely changed my trading.
Every name above contributed something meaningful to my process, whether it was structure, psychology, risk management, or a simple perspective.
If you’re new, I'd recommend studying these people.
and if you’ve been around, I'd recommend revisiting their work.
and to everyone who’s supported me along the way, thank you.
God bless, this is just the beginning!