Dan Conrad

Macro trader. Swing trader. Momentum trader. Option trader. Currency trader. Solution Architect. Flying since 2012. All my posts are investment advice 😎

[Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef]

Good to be reminded that the original makes every ai rip and run look like stupid.

[Dan Conrad @PerthParaglider]

@DaveTaylorNews It's a total hoax, LLM's are toasters.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Gold has rebounded from its support at $4k and based on global liquidity and rising demand we could easily see $5k or higher in the coming months.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

China’s holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to the lowest since August 2008. https://t.co/YJ4hb5MiVF

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Over $550 BILLION added to gold and silver in the last 2 hours ahead of today's Fed interest rate decision.

[Dan Conrad @PerthParaglider]

🎯👇

[Felipe Guirao @FelipeGuirao]

If you only trade breakouts, you will see that starting 2026 it will become 10x harder to make decent returns.

I know this because I built a database of my EOD breakout signals since 1995, and what it shows is that breakouts killed it in the late 90s just like it did post covid 2020, but it's not the "normal" reality...

I'm also guilty of this, as I made multiple 100%+ years since 2020 (check my track record in my site) just trading breakouts and breakdowns, but starting 2026 (and some of '25) shows that the market is going back to what is "normal":

• more choppy years
• more consolidation phases during the year than normal
• breadth contraction even when the indices just rip
• more volatile trends, where pullbacks do better than breakouts (25-26 is a recent prime example of this)

So what did I do?

I went back to the vault from my managed accounts in futures when I built 10s of systems to run portfolios, got a working pullback system, adapted it to stocks (universe, mechanics, etc), and also added a $QLD trend-following sleeve to profit when the indices rip and breadth is lacking, so the total result is what I call the "Portfolio T", started to run this this month.

Essentially, it accomplishes the holy grail of trading:

-> running 3 setups, which cover most of trading conditions, so my equity curve goes higher rather than lower the majority of the months

And does this with a CAGR of 60%+, and max DD of -25%.

THIS is what smart portfolio building looks like, and what you want to do if you want long term success in the stock market.

Remember, the market defines the distribution 100%, and setups don't work ALL the same all the time.

2020+ period was awesome for breakouts, that's the best you could do and it was more than enough, but now that we are reverting to more normal years like essentially 2004-2019 period, or late 80s to 1995...

So be PROACTIVE based on how the market works, if you don't mind sitting in a drawdown longer than you might want, or waiting for the moment the market rewards your setup, you can let systems building do the heavy lifting for you..

YOU have to do the work first, of course.

And that's the problem, nobody wants to do what it's required to do to get to this level.

DO the work.

You only have to do it once 📈

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Yields on 10-year Treasuries are about the highest relative to a similar measure on the S&P 500 since 2000. That's still not enough to materially attract multi-asset investors away from stocks. (1/2)

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

High-yield bond traders are definitely among the smartest money on Wall Street.

These "bearish divergences" have historically tended to confirm the bearish signal.

The FOMC rate decision could be the real catalyst, especially alongside the ongoing carry trade unwind risk.

The main trend remains bullish, but keep this in mind:

Divergences don't last forever—and HY traders are smart money.

[Barchart @Barchart]

JP Morgan's Trading Gameplan for tomorrow's rate decision 🚨 🚨

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

It's comical how the talking heads are making a big deal out of a potential rate hike. This is the most anticipated rate hike in the history of the stock market. The surprise will be if they don't hike.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Tomorrow's Fed meeting is a nightmare for Warsh. There's no way he can live up to all the hikes priced, so the press conference will likely disappoint markets. The Dollar is likely to fall and long yields likely to rise. My map for price action tomorrow:
https://t.co/QIA0rYUp4b

[David Scutt @Scutty]

Dollar Rate Repricing Swings From Four Cuts to Four Hikes https://t.co/nFaG7fozH3 via @YouTube

[David Scutt @Scutty]

Gold, silver squeezed by yields as dollar threat lies dormant
https://t.co/50OY466omd

[David Scutt @Scutty]

Hang Seng Tech delivers reversal pattern from support zone - #HSTECH TradingView https://t.co/qYmMFoP4VY

[David Scutt @Scutty]

Fed tightening cycles and the US dollar: what history shows
https://t.co/Y1J9qyw0uY

[Rachel Dashiell, CFP, CMT @RachelDashCS]

The McClellan Oscillator measures the difference between a 19-day EMA minus a 39-day EMA of net $NYSE advancers.

-100 and 100 typically act as oversold & overbought indicators, respectively.

Historically, reversals from deeply oversold readings have occurred around periods when $SPX was establishing market lows.

*Past performance is no guarantee of future results *Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim

[David Scutt @Scutty]

Well, we're here. ✅

U.S. Treasury Yields Signal a Market Shift That Could Reshape Every Asse... https://t.co/CNjRdH9Hlk via @YouTube

[Crowded Market Report @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt]

Its not about predicting, its about trying to find asymmetric risk/reward:

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Trump declares the only guardrails AI needs is a “high IQ president,” accusing AI critics of trying to slow America’s lead over China.