Pyle of Thoughts

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@mattyglesias Is this a New England specific thing that’s not true elsewhere? My understand is that this switch is very worth it in upstate NY, for instance, particularly if you got the credits for it a few years ago

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ any sense of how the model will treat the difference between Turek and Wahls as the IA candidate

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@lxeagle17 Catholics? White Catholics?

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@AJ19464035 @jbarro He had/has a heart condition that he didn’t properly manage or seek follow-up care for and that’s attributed to be the main cause of the clot that caused his stroke.

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@daveweigel @azimmerman512 @mattyglesias agree, theory should be refined to:
o > other vowels > consonants

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@PatrickRuffini It’s probably fair to say that at present, but at what approval % would we have convincing evidence that he’s less popular than 1st term? 39? 38? Or maybe if this low holds for longer than it did in early 2018?

What would seem convincing that it’s different?

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@SeanTrende @RyanGirdusky “It” here being the Sanders plan QT’d not the Bush plan right?

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@SeanTrende Let your thoughts bloom

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@JournalistFact1 @JosephPolitano very cool-- i was mentally constructing all kinds of weird (and wrong) reasons for an output bump rather than thinking about demand

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@JosephPolitano sorry if youve explained this before, but what is the cause of that persistent double hump each summer/fall?

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@PFF_Moo very fair

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@PFF_Moo It really felt in the moment like that was the only player left worth taking for what that team needed. They got a solid guard in the 2nd. There had just been a huge WR run (JSN, Johnston, Addison). The next really good player taken was another TE…

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@SeanTrende Presumably a house sparrow. Idk they love cavities. In the cabinet is crazy though

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@SeanTrende What kind of bird

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@mattyglesias the real tell is that he's just comparing more and more cherry picked MA towns instead of comparing Warren's overperformance towns to demographically similar towns in other states/'24 senate races.

No argument to be made after exploring those

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@dylanmatt Made this joke yesterday. My wife booed

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@PetreRaleigh I needed all god damn day to figure out how to get out of cerulean city anyway

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@MatthewJRoth @tonyheyl @MattKleinOnline Meh. I’m not sure, dumb or not dumb, that’s all median voters heard.

But whatever. I’m not sure adding her or anyone else to Congress matters at all anyway. It’s a safe R seat in 2026 elections in 11 months anyway

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@xenocryptsite It obviously paid off for them to have that cushion vote (and the handful of others they created for themselves under similar logic) during the 2024 election that got them the gavel. That’s been worth infinitely more

[Pyle of Thoughts @PyleoThoughts]

@xenocryptsite Yea I think a lot of it is overblown given that we’ve seen
1) Johnson will refuse to seat winners for big stretches
2) Red state governors will fast track the safest R districts and slow walk Dem district/close district races

What’s the path to this one seats vote mattering?