RedTailedHawk207

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

👀

[The Claude Portfolio @theaiportfolios]

Breaking: Claude is doubling down on ServiceNow, making it the largest position in the portfolio

Three weeks ago we gave Claude $50K of our own money to see how well it does at picking stocks

So far, it's made us $2,375 in unrealized profits

Here's the reasoning on why it bought the $NOW dip

🟢 1. "UPSIZE ServiceNOW to 11.55%

"ServiceNow dropped 17.7% in one session after Q1 earnings. That is its worst single-day decline in a decade. I upsized from 7.55% to 11.55%.

The quarter itself was good. Revenue of $3.77B grew 22% year over year. Management raised full-year subscription guidance by $205M.

The CFO flagged approximately 75 basis points of deal delay from Iran-war-related enterprise freeze in the Middle East. The market translated that into pricing roughly 400bp of structural deceleration.

The actual deceleration in the underlying business is closer to 200bp. Deal timing in an active war zone is not deal loss. These are enterprise software contracts with multi-year terms: they are delayed, not canceled.

The risk I'm accepting: if Q2 organic cRPO growth comes in below 18% constant currency, that would confirm structural AI-seat decay rather than a timing blip. That's the thesis-break signal. I'll be watching the Q2 guide at the May 4 Analyst Day for any preview of that number.

I already held NOW at 7.55% with a +4.7% since-entry return before the crash. I added 4pp into the dip. NOW is now 11.55% and the largest position in the book.

Expected: 1M +12% | 3M +22% | 12M +35.9%"

For full transparency, see following tweet for full performance + holdings.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

The US government made $25.7 billion on a single stock trade in 8 months.

Trump invested $8.9 billion in Intel at $20.47 per share in August 2025. Intel just reported earnings and surged 20% after hours to $80.

That 10% stake is now worth $34.6 billion.

Trump converted Biden's CHIPS Act grants into an equity stake instead of just handing Intel the money.

The grants were $5.7 billion. He added $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave defense program. Total investment $8.9 billion.

433.3 million shares at $20.47 each. No board seat or governance rights. Just a passive 10% ownership.

Intel was trading at $24 when the deal was announced. Wall Street called it a bailout and the stock was down 60% from its 2024 highs.

8 months later the US taxpayer is up $25.7 billion on paper.

That is a better return than most hedge funds make in a decade.

[Unbiased Mets Fan @TheMetsX]

The New York Mets are an embarrassment

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Allbirds stock, $BIRD, surges over +200% after announcing they are pivoting from shoes to AI.

[UConn Men's Basketball @UConnMBB]

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS‼️

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

🇺🇸🏒🦅⚡️

[New York Post Sports @nypostsports]

The back page: HEAVEN ON ICE

Read more: https://t.co/y0m2dMRsoc

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

From seeing ghosts to seeing silver and his reflection: Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is now a Super-Bowl winning quarterback.

[New York Post Sports @nypostsports]

The back page: SEA’ MONSTERS

Seattle ‘D’ pummels pathetic Patriots in Super slaughter

Read more: https://t.co/R6NftkGPaL

[U.S. Department of Labor @USDOL]

We are blessed to live in the greatest nation the world has ever seen.

Happy Sunday, everyone!

May God continue to Bless America.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The Venezuela plot thickens:

While Venezuela holds 303 BILLION barrels of oil reserves, much of this is HEAVY crude oil.

Texas and Louisiana also *happen* to have 6 of the LARGEST HEAVY crude oil refineries in the world.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

👀

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September.

From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT:

~$355.00/share (+248.04%)

off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected

Here's the updated metrics:

Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed:

ARR: raised from $2-4B
Revenue: $2.3B
Adjusted EBITDA: $907M
EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business.
Shares outstanding: ~290 M
Equity value per share: $205PT

New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release):

CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B).

Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT

It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc.

2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher

The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.

[US Homeland Security News @defense_civil25]

Happy Veterans Day! God Bless America! 🇺🇸

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

👍⚡️

[SNY Jets @snyjets]

"It's been a lot for me emotionally, spiritually. When I was on the field, I was damn near about to start crying, not because we won but because of the goodness of God."

Fields continues, "I'm going to get pretty vulnerable right here. This week I found myself in my closet crying on the ground, lying down. Not because of the hardships, not because of the troubles. I felt like I was built to handle that... I was praying over and over... just one win"

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

👀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Beyond Meat stock, $BYND, extends pre-market rally to over +100%, now up +600% in 3 days

The stock has now gone from a $200 million to $2.8 billion market cap in 4 trading days.

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

Gary Cohen 👎

[Awful Announcing @awfulannouncing]

Mets announcer Gary Cohen openly questioned Matt Shaw leaving the Cubs to attend the memorial of Charlie Kirk.

https://t.co/Luu7FD56Qz

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

👀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially hits 6,600 for the first time in history, now up +36% since its April 2025 bottom.

This marks one of the best 5-month stock market rallies in US history.

[MLB @MLB]

9/11/2001. We shall not forget.

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

RIP ✝️

[Fox News @FoxNews]

Charlie Kirk, a champion for conservative youth and a devoted Christian, has passed away at the age of 31. He will be remembered for his unwavering faith, his dedication to family, and his influence on a generation of young conservatives.

[RedTailedHawk207 @RTHawk207]

⚡️⚡️⚡️

[Eric Jackson @ericjackson]

Valhalla

[Crypto-Gucci.eth ᵍᵐ🦇🔊 @CryptoGucci]

Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion just bought another 317,126 ETH!!!

This now makes @BitMNR the 1st Ethereum Treasury Company to hold over 1 million ETH 🔥

You’re not bullish enough, here’s why:
- In 1 month BMNR made it 20% to its goal of acquiring 5% of all ETH supply
- Currently holds ~$5 BILLION worth of $ETH
- Tom Lee recently called for $16K ETH on CNBC
- Bitmine is accumulating at a rate 12x faster than Saylor
- BMNR is now the 25th most liquid US stock
- Peter Thiel has a 9% stake in Bitmine
- Tom Lee says ETH is the biggest macro trade for the next decade

Buckle up, ETH is inevitable